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Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

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a very fickle model run as has been the case for sometime interesting that the idea of a pattern change in december,

there is very little evidence of this and as ive suggested for a fair few weeks that very much like last winter powerful vortex set up and running the show this winter to.

interesting that the gem this morning showing a very 97/98 winter type set up with very mild start to december a ssw event looks to be our only saviour but up against the vortex thats dominated the last few years.

 

with euro heights consistently forecasted i threw the towel in weeks ago although the start of autumn started with a little excitement.

 

gem-0-216.png?12

nightmare gem 

 

ukmo shows to the ugly euro heights UW144-21.GIF?30-17

 

gfs is also showing the euro high 

gfs-0-192.png?12

although possibly more settled futher into december but nothing wintry for all but the north.

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GFS gets to roughly the same outcome despite taking a bit of a different route to get there

 

GFS 6Z

 

gfsnh-0-384.png?6

 

GFS 12Z

 

gfsnh-0-384.png?12

 

Usual caveats apply, it's a long, long way out and we had several runs from the GFS showing high pressure all over the North Atlantic the other day which have now gone AWOL.

Edited by Ravelin

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Here comes another interesting FI I think, lets see if the ensembles start picking up on the trend....

 

Not quite as good as earlier, but similar theme.  It looks like around day 12 the PV starts being obliterated, not quite in ECM range but getting there. 

 

Well we can hope, but given this all happens in the low resolution part of the run, is it a possibility that this is a bias inherent to the model itself? The old GFS was often maligned for being overly progressive and zonal in its latter frames. Perhaps the new one is guilty of the opposite.  

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Well we can hope, but given this all happens in the low resolution part of the run, is it a possibility that this is a bias inherent to the model itself? The old GFS was often maligned for being overly progressive and zonal in its latter frames. Perhaps the new one is guilty of the opposite.

So in a goldilocks sort of way the next update will be just right.
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Well we can hope, but given this all happens in the low resolution part of the run, is it a possibility that this is a bias inherent to the model itself? The old GFS was often maligned for being overly progressive and zonal in its latter frames. Perhaps the new one is guilty of the opposite.  

I think the best description is that the GFS would over-express any solution be it mild, blocked, cold, anticyclonic etc. But that is to be expected when you lower the resolution. The same applies to other models, it is just more obvious in the GFS as it goes out much further than the other operationals.

 

Back to the models, they looks pretty mild and unsettled until the beginning of next week. The chance of the Euro high ridging further north at times though it looms transient at best, the GEM again going very bold with these height rises. Perhaps something more interesting developing by mid-month but that is a long way away at the moment.

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Only around 3 or 4 GEFS Ens charts go with the Op, similar to the 06z...I'd be surprised if this trend keeps showing up much longer...

When is the next EC32 run?

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a very fickle model run as has been the case for sometime interesting that the idea of a pattern change in december,

there is very little evidence of this and as ive suggested for a fair few weeks that very much like last winter powerful vortex set up and running the show this winter to.

interesting that the gem this morning showing a very 97/98 winter type set up with very mild start to december a ssw event looks to be our only saviour but up against the vortex thats dominated the last few years.

 

with euro heights consistently forecasted i threw the towel in weeks ago although the start of autumn started with a little excitement.

 

gem-0-216.png?12

nightmare gem 

 

ukmo shows to the ugly euro heights UW144-21.GIF?30-17

 

gfs is also showing the euro high 

gfs-0-192.png?12

although possibly more settled futher into december but nothing wintry for all but the north.

Living up to your profile name again. Not sure why you threw the towel in mid autumn. Normal autumn fare being shown in the output, winter starts tomorrow. The GFS will soon ditch the idea in FI and join the mobile club again.

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The jet stream is looking pretty powerful again over the weekend

 

Rtavn11415.gifRtavn13215.gif

 

Another stormy weekend coming up potentially

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Well at least coldies in Europe aren't being subjected to snowy scenes from the USA and Canada as was the case for much of last winter! The pattern over there is bottling up any cold well north into Arctic Canada.

 

Its hard to see any sustained cold for the timebeing with the PV energized and located where it is, the best perhaps is high pressure further north which I'm sure would be welcome given the amount of rain that's fallen over recent weeks in the UK.

 

The ECM has toyed with more dig south of troughing in the west Atlantic which has helped drive some ridging further north ahead of it, we'll see soon whether this continues.

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Only around 3 or 4 GEFS Ens charts go with the Op, similar to the 06z...I'd be surprised if this trend keeps showing up much longer...

When is the next EC32 run?

 

Tonight. Place your bets

Edited by knocker

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That was some post Tamara, thanks.

 

It does look as though any attempt at blocking in December will always be swimming against the tide so to speak.

Still, it is nice to see those attempts being graphically illustrated within the MO, even though they remain elusively in FI for now.

 

We do at least have a strong signal that the jet will want to push South from around day 6 though - which should help amplify the pattern, hence the attempts at ridging from this period with varying degrees of success and consequence on our mobile pattern.

 

As always, it is case of highlighting the possibilities from cold lovers perspective from me, but hopefully not with any strong bias. (hopefully :acute: )

 

The start of any increased amplification comes around day 6/7 which hopefully (lots of hope :)) is enough to slow down the Westerly progression and cause a knock on effect upstream that results in some worthwhile blocking while the teleconnections generally point to any attempt being overrun until later in the Winter.

 

I am happy to be patient for now and just enjoy the waxing and waning of signals in the hope something will eventually turn the tide our way and we get to swim all the way to Fantasy Island. (UK Winter wonderland)

Edited by Mucka
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Well winter official starts tomorrow! I'd say we have until mid-march for some real biting cold weather.....so around 14 weeks. 

Pity that the charts show nothing of the sort for the first two weeks of December, so let's put a big red X through 2/14 weeks and hope that the tentative signs of a pattern change mid month bare some fruit. All eyes on ECM!

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Impressive ECM FI this evening.

note not just the WAA and ridge but the build of heights to our NE from 192h

 

ECH1-192.GIF?30-0ECH1-216.GIF?30-0

 

The best we can hope for for now are building blocks such as these to be consistently modeled and built upon.

 

ECH1-240.GIF?30-0

Edited by Mucka
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The ECM does continue with its digging west Atlantic troughing which does help force high pressure further north near the UK, we do also see some weak pressure rises developing to the north and ne.

 

If Santa was reading our letters he'd dig that troughing even further south and cut the jet back further towards the UK!

 

Look west for salvation if its going to happen, that trough would be the trigger. I think the odds are a close but no cigar outcome , we'll see the ECM ensembles later but for the timebeing perhaps high pressure closeby with at least some drier weather more likely.

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GFS back with some reasonable eye candy in FI, I remain unconvinced as such charts remain elusive and are not coming anywhere near the reliable time frame and have little ensemble support. 

 

A few charts from GFS output roughly 7 & 10 days ago with what it was showing for the first weekend of December. 

 

post-9615-0-69760800-1448906024_thumb.pn post-9615-0-38577200-1448909068_thumb.pn

 

Down to less than a week away now and the unsettled westerly regime continues.

 

post-9615-0-86132400-1448909277_thumb.pn post-9615-0-68338400-1448906300_thumb.pn

 

Similar chart from today's output to what it was showing 10 days ago, only now it's been pushed back again to 2 weeks away. 

 

post-9615-0-56979000-1448906380_thumb.pn

 

The GFS does like to lead us up the garden path at times! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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In terms of the ECM if theres to be any chance at all of developing a colder ne/e flow for the UK then the low pressure circled red has to verify and dig further south, you also want to see this more elongated. This effects any ridging ahead of it, you can correlate what the high will do with what this low does. Its still a longshot because trying to get the jet cutting back in towards the UK  at T216 and T240hrs from  ne to sw rather than nw to se is always like pulling teeth in these set ups.

 

Given that the rest of the outputs are a recipe for insomnia then its really only tonights ECM that's of any interest to those looking for something colder. I should stress its a longshot , we'll see in the morning whether the pre Christmas miracle is a possibility.

 

post-1206-0-65712700-1448911670_thumb.gi

Edited by nick sussex
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In terms of the ECM if theres to be any chance at all of developing a colder ne/e flow for the UK then the low pressure circled red has to verify and dig further south, you also want to see this more elongated. This effects any ridging ahead of it, you can correlate what the high will do with what this low does. Its still a longshot because trying to get the jet cutting back in towards the UK  at T216 and T240hrs from  ne to sw rather than nw to se is always like pulling teeth in these set ups.

 

Given that the rest of the outputs are a recipe for insomnia then its really only tonights ECM that's of any interest to those looking for something colder. I should stress its a longshot , we'll see in the morning whether the pre Christmas miracle is a possibility.

 

attachicon.gifECH1-192.gif

I was thinking the high to the north east might act so a to deflect the low pressure towards the UK and allow some Atlantic retrogression nick :)

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Interesting system on the ecm this evening. The low way out to west at T120 moves so fast 24 hrs later it's in Sweden. En passant Saturday night it brings some very wet weather and strong winds, gusting 65kts, into the southern half of Britain. Need keep a beady on that.

.

post-12275-0-54922800-1448912262_thumb.p

post-12275-0-06532000-1448912268_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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This evenings ECM is one of those where you hope the model has picked upon some weak polar heights in a decent strategic position for which the other models will start to pick it up or even increase the strength of this high.

It won't be picked up on the ensembles or anomalies just yet, probably a good thing considering this

EDH101-240.GIF?30-0

Low heights over Iceland, Euro high, pretty gruesome set of ensembles from the ECM suggesting no let in in the generally mild and unsettled conditions, perhaps the Euro high influencing the UK more strongly at times. The GFS and GEM suites as usual being more bullish about the Euro heights influencing the UK at times.

 

GFS (P)

gensnh-21-5-240.png?12

Edited by Captain shortwave
GEF (P) anomaly added to post
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We have to tread carefully really, as I have known first hand what it's like to get your hopes up based on a spell of wild model output only to have them dashed on multiple occasions - even having been hardened after many seasons it can still become very frustrating. Yet being realistically restrained all the time gets very dull after not long at all, except in those special winters when we have a lot of signals pointing in the right direction and little to argue the other way.

 

So it is that it becomes a game of chasing the exciting weather but avoiding taking it too seriously.

 

However, I do feel it's valuable to have some reminder from time to time that we shouldn't get carried away when the odds are against what we want.

 

 

The analysis of tonight's ECM det. has seen a lot of 'the game' with a dose of realism from Nick Sussex and I reckon that's about the right formula. 

 

Speaking of that run, it's one of those where even small adjustments upstream will make a big difference in our neck of the woods, so I'd be surprised to see the same thing tomorrow - for better or worse  :)

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CS

Interestingly that ECM ens mean looks like the GFS op as it builds heights into NE Canada & beyond-

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