Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens continues to show high pressure becoming dominant over mainland Europe as we move into December by next weekend the signs are it will extend up towards the south, so becoming more settled here always the risk of rain and some hill snow in the far north where you're closer to low pressure

 

[Captain Shortwave]

yes it is Bold and a knee jerk reaction to one run (sorry mods)

Unfortunately it isn't, just a few decent operationals from the GEM and GFS for something more settled more UK wide and possibly colder, it never got majority support from the ensembles and to be honest the ECM suite was having none of it. 

At this point we just need to take this bitter pill. The GFS ensembles suggest a shake up in the hemispheric pattern around the 10th of December so lets see how the models handle things in a few days time, notably when we hit December.

 

The evolution from the GFS (P) ens suggests something similar to what we saw a week or so ago with the Euro high retrogressing into the Atlantic.

For now conditions look mild in the south with some colder incursions for the north at times.

[Rocheydub]

 

The ECM ens continues to show high pressure becoming dominant over mainland Europe as we move into December by next weekend the signs are it will extend up towards the south, so becoming more settled here always the risk of rain and some hill snow in the far north where you're closer to low pressure

 

 

Indeed. So no clear path to cold, if you rely (like I do) on NWP for forecasting. Coming to a clear path to cold from here has mostly proven very difficult at our long/lat and one must rule it out for the next 8 or 9 (most certainly more) days... 

But here is where we only begin winter... So far from a need to panic!

Edited November 28, 2015 by Rocheydub

[Geordiesnow]

Still not convinced by any ridge of high pressure into the UK, not as a dominance force anyways. It does look like Tuesday could potentially be the only day where it is nationwide on the mild to very mild side but apart from that, colder air is never all that far away. 

 

With such a strong jet stream, its hard too see how high pressure can be dominant although it does look like, at least in Southern areas, there will be some influence in the shape of drier and milder weather. 

 

Certainly nothing to worry regarding winter just yet, some areas could see some snowfall in the next day or two! 

[doghouse]

just looking at the anomoly charts i saved last weekend and in respect of the 10 day charts - a pretty good job but the strength of the euro heights   and the w atlantic troughing underestimated

 

further ahead now the 16 day gefsp is now comparable to the ecm 10 day.  guess what - greenland low anomoly not picked up and neither is the euro high anomoly!!   twas ever thus.

And thar she goes......up in the inevitable puff of logic. Weeks of utterly futile winter chasing when it has always been this way. Love the posts but this pearl of meterological wisdom should be writ large on every winter related weather thread.

[johnholmes]

Unfortunately it isn't, just a few decent operationals from the GEM and GFS for something more settled more UK wide and possibly colder, it never got majority support from the ensembles and to be honest the ECM suite was having none of it. 

At this point we just need to take this bitter pill. The GFS ensembles suggest a shake up in the hemispheric pattern around the 10th of December so lets see how the models handle things in a few days time, notably when we hit December.

 

The evolution from the GFS (P) ens suggests something similar to what we saw a week or so ago with the Euro high retrogressing into the Atlantic.

For now conditions look mild in the south with some colder incursions for the north at times.

 

 

There is the slightest and I mean slightest hint of this in the NOAA suite of anomaly charts!

[bluearmy]

There is the slightest and I mean slightest hint of this in the NOAA suite of anomaly charts!

Just checked NAEFS 12z and it's not really a big surprise john. The NOAA sat and sun are direct naefs output which is going to resemble the GEFS

Of course NOAA being a 7 day mean won't show the back end of the run cleanly.

[knocker]

I wrote this yesterday morning vis the gfs run and it will sum this morning's as well. This morning's gfs run is a classic example of a very mobile NW/SW flow featuring the interplay between the Pm and Tm airmasses via systems travelling ENE to the north and the HP to the SW/SE. A couple of thickness charts within the ten day period to illustrate the point for a change Although there are periods of quite strong winds, mainly confined to the north, there is nothing that looks too drastic at the moment but of course in this  mobile pattern this could change quite quickly.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited November 29, 2015 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

I wrote this yesterday morning vis the gfs run and it will sum this morning's as well. This morning's gfs run is a classic example of a very mobile NW/SW flow featuring the interplay between the Pm and Tm airmasses via systems travelling ENE to the north and the HP to the SW/SE. A couple of thickness charts within the ten day period to illustrate the point for a change Although there are periods of quite strong winds, mainly confined to the north, there is nothing that looks too drastic at the moment but of course in this  mobile pattern this could change quite quickly.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

GFS still toying with some sort of North westerly in FI knocker but ECM again is flat as the proverbial this morning.

Have to say the amount of rain round the north west in particular is gruesome, we really need some respite up here.

[Captain Shortwave]

Not a lot to say about this mornings output, westerly with your usual north/south split with the south ending up fairly dry and mild for a good deal of the time whilst the north is west with more variable spells of mild and cool.

 

Rainfall as you expect, western areas are wet, especially higher ground with central and eastern areas seeing some rain but no washout.

 

The proposed change hinted by the GFS (P) ensembles is moving towards more widespread cyclonic activity over the UK with a more influential trough and euro heights squeezed away, overall a trend from mild and a north/south split to a more widely unsettled spell with temperatures near normal.

 

Lets hope we see some change soon on this.

[knocker]

Just been looking at the GEFS anomaly at the end of the run, I know completely pointless but I did it anyway, and it continues the trend of late of shifting the Greenland vortex central Siberia way, even to the extent of having slight ridging over Greenland with the trough over the UK. A glance at the 250mb chart and hey ho said Rowley. Faint possibilities  here of sneaking a cold interlude from the north over the UK.

Edited November 29, 2015 by knocker

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM for me isn't without interest and probably for the first time in its FI here is the hint of amplification to our west.  GFS maintains that theme and Knocker has kindly posted that idea with the anomaly.

Strong westerly influence for foreseeable with some strong winds but not without interest for 'usual suspects'.  Even today I'm happy with this, it is still autumn but very seasonal with strong gusty winds.  GFS has binned the Scandi idea it would seem which I always though would be a bonus if we got it.  I'm quite happy with the models this morning

 

quite mild tea time Tuesday

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151129/00/63/h850t850eu.png

 

 

and the next evening turning pretty chilly from NW....a very different feel 

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151129/00/93/h850t850eu.png

 

 

It could be worse, it could be like the first one all the time

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 29, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ravelin]

Not sure we'll want the ECM to verify at t168. I've never been to the Outer Hebridies and I'd like it still to be there when I do get the chance to visit.

Edited November 29, 2015 by Ravelin

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

And away from IMBY, Scotland will see heavy snow today at all levels and even NI early tomorrow.  So Clondagh brings some fun and games to the UK it would seem...Gales, heavy snow, heavy rain...MetO warnings......great weather  

 

BFTP

Edited November 29, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

The latest verification stats provided by Gibby shows ECM remaining the top model

 

At 24 hours ECM ahead of GFS and UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts.  

 

At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.9 pts.

 

At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 88.5 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts.

 

Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 64.3 pts over GFS's 61.4 pts.

 

Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 44.9 pts to 41.8 pts.

Edited November 29, 2015 by Summer Sun

[JoeShmoe]

And away from IMBY, Scotland will see heavy snow today at all levels and even NI early tomorrow.  So Clondagh brings some fun and games to the UK it would seem...Gales, heavy snow, heavy rain...MetO warnings......great weather  

 

BFTP

 

indeed, check out the scottish thread to see the video from Dundee posted this morning ...

[Newberryone]

Wow, what a difference a day makes, which can especially be the case in meteorology. As far more knowledgeable contributors to this forum, than I could ever hope to be, have already pointed out, unsettled/disturbed weather looks like becoming far more widespread in the general outlook period. Pleased to see those Euro heights again being gradually squeezed out of the picture by an ever forceful jet stream. CLODAGH has already had some impact on electricity supplies here with reports of widespread power outages.    

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Apart from Tuesday it never truly gets mild for more northern regions, next weekend looking rather stormy if Ravelin and Newberry's charts verify. Very interesting Model watching ahead definitely not boring!!

[blizzard81]

GFS 06z ensemble mean dips below 0c at 850 hpa towards mid december. I still believe the change to a colder pattern will come mid to last third of december. How much colder? Not sure and from which direction? Probably north as opposed to east. It would be interesting to get Fergie's latest on the Glosea model. Are you there Ian? Please

[fergieweather]

GFS 06z ensemble mean dips below 0c at 850 hpa towards mid december. I still believe the change to a colder pattern will come mid to last third of december. How much colder? Not sure and from which direction? Probably north as opposed to east. It would be interesting to get Fergie's latest on the Glosea model. Are you there Ian? Please

Last (yesterday's) output continued the current mobile theme - in broad sense - on towards later Dec, but signals remain more mixed/indistinguishable by late in the month. For info, GloSea5's monthly suite runs once every day, as do the stratospheric diagnostics. The seasonal modelling runs once a week (but appears on public website once per month).

[blizzard81]

Last (yesterday's) output continued the current mobile theme - in broad sense - on towards later Dec, but signals remain more mixed/indistinguishable by late in the month. For info, GloSea5's monthly suite runs once every day, as do the stratospheric diagnostics. The seasonal modelling runs once a week (but appears on public website once per month).

Thank you Ian, much appreciated as always.

[Captain Shortwave]

Another batch of model runs, same story really, the north will see cold enough airmasses at times to get snow to modest levels. For the Midlands south the story is pretty dire to be honest with the 0C barely penetrating the south half of the UK at all in the next week or so. So double figure maxima look likely until next weekend where we may see more widespread dry and settled conditions develop for a time.

 

Unfortunately no guarantees on this as the UKMO is completely flat and unsettled on its chart for Saturday with little sign of the pressure rise shown on the GFS and GEM operationals.

[cheshire snow]

^^^

Blimey the top half of Scotland and the Shetland Islands will

Disappear if that last chart verifies,infact its very windy and

Wet for most

C.S

GFS gives us a Northerly way out in FI

Edited November 29, 2015 by cheshire snow

[Ravelin]

^^^

Blimey the top half of Scotland and the Shetland Islands will

Disappear if that last chart verifies,infact its very windy and

Wet for most

C.S

I know this is the 0Z not the 12Z as CS posted, but if you think the OKMO is bad the ECM is a nightmare.

[blizzard81]

Nice last few days to the GFS 12z run. Setting us up for a cold final third of December