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Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well the 6z shows high pressure moving in at around 200 hours, and staying put right out through 384 hours. Slightly strange to see an Azores High coming in with pressure up around 1045mb at times I must say....


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Forgive the knee jerk reaction, but just when we thought euro heights were relaxing there grip, we're now being presented with the potential takeover of our summer friend/winter foe, AH, going into wk 2 :diablo:  

post-17830-0-83348600-1448536975_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Forgive the knee jerk reaction, but just when we thought euro heights were relaxing there grip, we're now being presented with the potential takeover of our summer friend/winter foe, AH, going into wk 2 :diablo:  

 

i wouldnt worry about that, the outlook for the next 2 weeks or so is (as john posted above) a strong westerly or just south of west. that would allow for a synoptic chart like the one you posted to become reality, but as things stand its unlikely to last more then 2-3 days tops.

that said, it all depends upon whether or not the anomaly charts will be right, (or how right, its often not a case of right/wrong but varying degrees of accuracy/inaccuracy) , but currently theres no lasting bartlett / southern euro high .

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Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

As suspected, the Scandinavian high at the end of the runs last night has flip flopped back to a Bartlett high this morning with the dreaded south Westerly again.

Looks like December is picking up where November left off. Very mild, wet, and windy with little or no frost or snow.

I'm getting bad vibes about this coming winter :(

Edited by Peter H
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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

As suspected, the Scandinavian high at the end of the runs last night has flip flopped back to a Bartlett high this morning with the dreaded south Westerly again.

Looks like December is picking up where November left off. Very mild, wet, and windy with little or no frost or snow.

I'm getting bad vibes about this coming winter :(

Very mild? eh. Snow for some in Scotland over the next few days as PM air sweeps across bring -5 850's. The high pressure is still to be resolved where it could potentially end up. Scandi could be the location going by some models we don't have access too. I guess in Ireland an easterly element is no good for you, for others could bring the frost and snow. Middle to end of December could be more seasonal.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Your writing off dec based on this mornings runs? Is that not overdoing it a little!

 

Hasn't that Azores High been appearing and then disappearing a few times in the model runs lately?  I get the impression from more experinced people here that it appears to be more likely to be transient.

Edited by cpb
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The difference in the SE 850s from last run is 12c at +174, quite a difference at such short range.

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

It looks like around next weekend is where we could see a pattern change as increasing amplification allows heights to build further north with this possibly involving the UK.

GFS

gfs-0-216.png?12

 

GEM

gem-0-216.png?12

 

The GEM chart isn't far off offering a pretty cold easterly feed into the south of the UK.

So an increasing chance perhaps of something drier and more settled with some night frosts, there is as the GEM shows a chance of developing something colder still.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

 

The GEM chart isn't far off offering a pretty cold easterly feed into the south of the UK.

So an increasing chance perhaps of something drier and more settled with some night frosts, there is as the GEM shows a chance of developing something colder still.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

 

The GEM chart isn't far off offering a pretty cold easterly feed into the south of the UK.

So an increasing chance perhaps of something drier and more settled with some night frosts, there is as the GEM shows a chance of developing something colder still.

Yes, not sure if it will be a cold or a cool high, frost and sun would be nice...Hopefully the ECM follows the GEM

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

FI could be nice, I have a sneaky suspicion things may get busy in here in a week to 10 days time...things are definitely looking up if you ask me...

I think some interesting GEFS may on the cards for FI when they come out in an hour or so.

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Best inform the Met to shut down Glosea5 for the winter Ian - Peter H has bad vibes and Cpb gets the impression that it's tentative signs for December are way off. 

 

I was merely trying to reassure Peter H that most of the posters I respect felt that the Azores High was being overplayed in some model runs, supported by the fact that it didn't seem to feature in others, and that a Bartlett setup therefore to them, seemed unlikely.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

Best inform the Met to shut down Glosea5 for the winter Ian - Peter H has bad vibes and Cpb gets the impression that it's tentative signs for December are way off. 

Sorry mods if this is wrong .. How the hell can u claim winter is over. It is these sensational comments that clutter the thread from people who are a) still learning and b) trying to keep a level head on hoping bit also studying and watching listening and learning. I dint often post in here as my knowledge is still growing. This is without a doubt not going to be your average winter.. and to be told winter is over even begire the meto official start.

Sorry mods if this us wrong but how frustrating it is to be told this....

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
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Posted
  • Location: Clwydian Hills 210/300 Metres ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Clwydian Hills 210/300 Metres ASL

Sorry mods if this is wrong .. How the hell can u claim winter is over. It is these sensational comments that clutter the thread from people who are a) still learning and b) trying to keep a level head on hoping bit also studying and watching listening and learning. I dint often post in here as my knowledge is still growing. This is without a doubt not going to be your average winter.. and to be told winter is over even begire the meto official start.

Sorry mods if this us wrong but how frustrating it is to be told this....

 

axJmn.gif

 

:whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

i wonder how many "winter's over" posts this chart would spawn if it was today.

attachicon.gifarchivesnh-1962-11-26-0-0.png

(todays date in 1962...)

Agree, similar winter coming would be nice....little chance but you can't write it off.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Indeed. Some of the posts in here are more suitable for this thread: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84481-winters-moans-ramps-chat-and-banter/

Cheers all. :)

For the same of it, though, even should December turn out to be a disappointing month for cold weather prospects and that some of the models' ideas of building a Scandinavian High in FI turn out to be false, the other months of Winter could always come to the rescue for cold and/or snowy weather.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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