Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

[knocker]

With respect - these are the same Anomalies that didn't pick up the bitter period this weekend. If we were to go by the anomaly's you have posted for about the last 6 weeks, we would be deep into a zonal train with no end in site..when in reality there has been plenty to keep everyone interested. The reliance on these charts and all that they entail is predominantly futile and misleading, especially when truly into fantasy land like T360. If a coldy finds a chart at T360 they get buried (ironically) under all the ribs aimed at them. 

 

You are deliberately misrepresenting what I post. zonality doesn't preclude incursions of Pm unsettled wintry weather merely the general disposition of the long wave pattern. And the anomalies did pick up this cold snap but you had make sure you didn't blink or you would have missed it. And it isn't just one chart at T360 as I do have a little savy to remember to look at the whole run and also associate it with support from the GEFS and NOAA. 

Edited November 21, 2015 by Paul
No need

[Glacier Point]

Been saying it for a while now - the blocking to our ne is going to be the story for December. Just depends if it can make it this far west. Signs that the vortex might be split/stretched with the deeper chunk on the Pacific side could just be enough? We wouldn't expect the Siberian high to make a difference this far west in December but I'm Impressed with the gefsp at day 10 when compared to ECM (re similarity) so why not take the extended data with a bit more interest than just entertainment value?

Have a look through the members in two weeks time.

 

Agree here Nick. Stressing that at this juncture it does not likely translate to any potential cold patterns for the UK and Western Europe, perversely it may drop the trough to our west. However, the indirect inference is that the atmosphere is responding to drivers delivering a 2 wave pattern and not being blown away by an inferred +QBO / +AO pattern.

 

FWIW day 7-8 pattern may be a bit more amplified than suggested by the ensemble means with a deep upper low passing through the Western Pacific and generally favourable conditions for amplification of the Asian and Pacific Jet(s) [plural]. That will only serve to feed the anomalous ridge over Siberia and the persistent surface warmth over the Kara Sea.

Edited November 21, 2015 by Glacier Point

[PolarWarsaw]

You are deliberately misrepresenting what I post. zonality doesn't preclude incursions of Pm unsettled wintry weather merely the general disposition of the long wave pattern. And the anomalies did pick up this cold snap but you had make sure you didn't blink or you would have missed it. And it isn't just one chart at T360 as I do have a little savy to remember to look at the whole run and also associate it with support from the GEFS and NOAA. 

 

Not according to yourself it didn't. There have been numerous postings for months now from yourself which could in effect have been a basic copy and paste post 4-5 times per day..Anomaly posted...chart by weatherbell....Westerly...Zonal. That's a very straight line look at the charts that are presented and as such, Anomaly's don't represent the nitty gritty details and then miss things at short notice. If I remember correctly, you dissapeared or didn't post for a couple of days (coincidence or not, who knows) when the colder period started showing - having previously not mentioned it and then did as much as possible to avoid it when you returned. 

 

If it isn't just one chart you looked at, it seems rather strange to pick the furthest chart out on any given model run and then post it as the back up to the point you are trying to make? Surely?

 

Let's not derail the thread, but I just think the broadbush approach your consistent anomaly posting habbits show are very misleading.

 

Anyway, some nice Siberian Heights on tonight's 18z. Something for any coldies to watch over with interest in the morning. 

 

Night folks.

Edited November 21, 2015 by Paul

[Singularity]

 

Not quite as strong on the 18z due to poorer alignment of the Siberian high later on, but the 30 hpa temperature charts clearly show the benefits of having that blocking in place regardless of how close to our shores it manages to extend a ridge.

 

I have to step back and remind myself that this is for a week into December as opposed to January. That said, I've seen GFS bring strat. warming along too quickly before so I wouldn't be surprised to see the amount above taking until mid-month to achieve - assuming it does at all, though it would be a huge fail for GFS if that was the case as it's been showing some degree of warming with remarkable consistency for more than a week now.

 

 

This second attack on the vortex, following a weaker yet effective one in 7 to 8 days time that actually splits the vortex (see below - it has been brought out of lower-res with no real setbacks which is quite something), will be taking on a vortex that won't go down without a fight - just look at how it bounces back from the first attack - so it may be a case of just shoving the vortex about for the time being. Yet a strong enough warming might well displace the vortex at 30 hpa far enough toward NW Europe or western Asia as to allow the polar vortex at the 500 hpa level to situate unusually close to or even in line with the UK, as it's typical for troughs lower down to be a bit to the southeast of troughs at higher levels (but I'm assuming here that the same is true for the polar/strat vortex, please correct me if I'm wrong).

 

Essentially I'm studying with great interest this potential to twist the El Nino rulebook without necessarily tearing it up; we'd just be taking the usual vortex location and moving it southeast by 1500 miles or so. On a global scale that's not a lot so, why not? 

 

[knocker]

If it isn't just one chart you looked at, it seems rather strange to pick the furthest chart out on any given model run and then post it as the back up to the point you are trying to make? Surely? Let's not derail the thread, but I just think the broadbush approach your consistent anomaly posting habbits show are very misleading and are quite obviously used at times to emphasise the specific type of weather you want the rest of us to have. 

 

Anyway, some nice Siberian Heights on tonight's 18z. Something for any coldies to watch over with interest in the morning. 

 

Night folks.

 

You must have extremely good vision as I didn't post the chart. If the charts I post don't support the accompanying summary then the falsehood will be glaringly obvious. I take it your criticism will also apply to John Holmes who has frequently explained why he finds the anomaly charts useful if correctly used. And they aren't meant to portray the nitty gritty detail which I must admit, I assumed you would have realised. Oh well you live and learn.

Edited November 21, 2015 by Paul

[blizzard81]

Anyway I am very positive with regards to cold in the next 2 weeks. I will settle for cool/cold PM air as we approach December plus the ever bulging Siberian High. The negative tilt of the pv as it approaches the uk in a week's time is a fantastic sign as we head into December. Mid December could be very interesting indeed.

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18hrs still sticking with its high pressure development near Svalbard. The ECM is different somewhat by building the Siberian high westwards and doesn't make much of high pressure to the ne.

 

The thing with Siberian highs they can often be like that film that's very much lauded and given critical acclaim , you watch it and think is that it!

 

It can promise much and not deliver so theres no guarantees with this, although it at least gives you a ticket to the cinema.

 

In the outlook high pressure progged to the east or ne is stopping a less than welcome pattern for coldies because it forces the jet se near the UK and into Europe.

 

The models at longer range always have difficulties deciding how far west/east the pattern might be when you have either that Svalbard high or Siberian high.

 

So for this reason I'd be wary of projections made by the operationals and associated ensembles at longer range, although the odds are against   a quick return of much colder conditions it would be premature to rule anything in or out.

 

The Siberian high this far west early in the season might be better viewed as being of some help later in the season.

Edited November 22, 2015 by nick sussex

[Cheshire Freeze]

Anyway I am very positive with regards to cold in the next 2 weeks. I will settle for cool/cold PM air as we approach December plus the ever bulging Siberian High. The negative tilt of the pv as it approaches the uk in a week's time is a fantastic sign as we head into December. Mid December could be very interesting indeed.

 

So far, we're on track....

 

 Posted by CreweCold on 12 November 2015 - 14:13

 

Heading into the later forecast period and into December I'd wager with anyone that the mean jet runs NW-SE rather than SW-NE in our vicinity.

[blizzard81]

So far, we're on track....

 

 Posted by CreweCold on 12 November 2015 - 14:13

 

Heading into the later forecast period and into December I'd wager with anyone that the mean jet runs NW-SE rather than SW-NE in our vicinity.

Absolutely Crewe. The negative tilt is something I always look for as we approach winter, especially late Autumn. This all started when I looked back at previous cold winters in the UK and the lead up to them. I need say no more

[knocker]

An overview of this morning's gfs run.

 

The first eight days pretty much a zonal affair comprising an interaction between the depressions running along on the jet to the north and the and the high pressure to the south west. Resulting in the ebb and flow of the Pm and Tm air masses over the UK giving very much a N/S split with much of the wintry stuff concentrated to the north Post day eight the HP to the SW and to the east become much more prominent leading to much more settled conditions as a whole for the UK. The two charts are merely examples and are not intended to be a profound statement.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited November 22, 2015 by knocker

[Liam J]

This is probably what you don't want to see on any future runs, a link up to the Azores high bringing SW'lys, also a more organised vortex. 

 

 

 

[johnholmes]

With respect - these are the same Anomalies that didn't pick up the bitter period this weekend. If we were to go by the anomaly's you have posted for about the last 6 weeks, we would be deep into a zonal train with no end in site..when in reality there has been plenty to keep everyone interested. The reliance on these charts and all that they entail is predominantly futile and misleading, especially when truly into fantasy land like T360. If a coldy finds a chart at T360 they get buried (ironically) under all the ribs aimed at them. 

 

Sorry PW the anomaly charts I use, ECMWF-GFS and NOAA did predict a week ahead this cold spell. I can if you and others wish make up a pdf (if I can remember how to do it) and show the succession of charts that caused me to post around that time showing the flow changing to north of west with lowering heights occurring indicating a colder spell was very likely. I never attempt to predict more than about 2 weeks or so ahead as NOA charts only go out to 15 days. Rather than clutter up the thread I am happy to chat via pm or posting with a pdf allows folk to not have to read it. Just drop a line in here or pm me please.

John

Edited November 22, 2015 by johnholmes

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst yesterday outputs potentially suggested a slower moving pattern across the UK with troughs digging well into Europe, this mornings pretty much reverse this with a westerly pattern dominant across the board. So a mix of some mild days interspersed with chilly showery days as areas of low pressure track eastwards north of the UK.

Whilst the northern hemisphere shows promise, we must not forget that for the UK the pattern looks pretty average overall in terms of rainfall, temperature and probably sunshine amounts. We will obviously need to look of secondary systems that could bring strong winds towards the north of the country, likely the intensity of any polar maritime bursts, again more focused for the north.

 

ECM ens for perspective

 

No return to persistent mild conditions with the Azores high sitting in its home position so to speak so mild sectors as it is pushed towards us from time to time as opposed to the conditions we saw over the past couple of weeks.

Edited November 22, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run shows a strong polar maritime blast towards the end of the week ahead with sleet and snow across northern hills and occasionally to lower levels and further south.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Frosty, A sharp blast of Pm air next weekend from the N/W dragging in some cold -5/-6 850's over the UK, Giving Wintry showers almost anywhere but more so for the Northern half of the UK.

Edited November 22, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

If I remember correctly the models did the same thing before settling on what we got.  There were some beauties for cold then they showed a flattening then upgraded again nearer to the time.  I think the flattening shown on last couple of runs will amplify a bit more again...but I do see that theme happening towards end of 1st week of Dec.  Nice to see GFS maintain the pM air flooding the UK end of the month.

 

BFTP 

[TSNWK]

Really is a text book +NAO setting up on the ECM last few runs. This mornings continues that theme.

Nothing dramatic then for coldies for the next couple of weeks at least, just scouting around watching a high pressure zone several thousand miles to the east ebb and flow.

Patience will the buzzword me thinks for a bit yet.

[dragan]

Will the models pick up and take into account the cooler Atlantic with the possible upcoming pm blast?? Last week from a pm blast there was a bit of sleet and snow which seemed unusual for mid-late November.

[bluearmy]

Now for those Nino dec low anomolys................

[blizzard81]

image.jpg

Now for those Nino dec low anomolys................

Hi, are those air pressure anomalies?

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

looking  into fantasy world  december could be interesting  if  you likr rain /snow!!!

[Nick F]

Looking at the 00z ECM EPS days 10-15 there is 500mb vortex over Greenland which is joined to another over Ern Siberia/Bering Sea/Wern Alaska in the means. A prominent and the most noticeable +ve H500 anomaly/ridge in the northern hem continues to show over central Siberia though in this timeframe. This anomaly +ve anomaly bolstered by deep trough digging down across NE/E Europe and Wern Russia.

 

However, the trop Polar Vortex appears to be too resistant against any poleward wave propagation from the Siberian High for now, so there appears to be no impetus from the medium to long range NWP guidance to dislodge the PV from its limpet hold on Greenland for now.

 

The flow is quite fluid below the Greenland vortex across the North Atlantic and right back across North America and into the NE Pacific, so there is scope for some of the waves developing in the flow to develop enough amplitude to deliver brief cold shots to the UK, some that may be picked up or enhanced by later runs perhaps. But, dare I say, none particularly potent or sustained with the set-up looking likely to persist into early December.

Edited November 22, 2015 by Nick F

[bluearmy]

Hi, are those air pressure anomalies?

No, height

[blizzard81]

No, height

Thanks BA

[nick sussex]

Unless the ECM operational run is picking a new trend that will be followed by its ensembles then its 00hrs output towards days 9 and 10 isn't going to verify over Europe. Its a  mild outlier and even more so when you look at the associated dew points where that's even more pronounced.

 

We saw this a while back with it over inflating the Euro high, the more likelier outcome is for the jet to remain more nw/se aligned with more dig of low pressure into Europe.

 

In terms of the upstream pattern although that's quite progressive its still expected to develop some occasional amplitude which is likely to keep the Azores high more displaced to the west/sw.