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Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Cold indeed, and that is unlikely to change but the detail will, the GFS looks a dog dinner with the amount of shortwaves that are in there. There does seem to be a trend emerging that any height rises towards Greenland won't last and the Northerly will probably topple but how quick this will happen will of course be a question that will remain unanswered for now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Oh dear, what a mess....attempted Greenland height rises and strong Euro heights

 

gfsnh-0-360.png?18

Pretty organised vortex there to be fair too. Would doubt future frames would have much interest around Greenland if there were some. Still, deep into FI I won't be concerned for now.
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Pretty organised vortex there to be fair too. Would doubt future frames would have much interest around Greenland if there were some. Still, deep into FI I won't be concerned for now.

 

Being completely honest, today has been a bit of a low in terms of any split vortex trend- the trend we saw yesterday. I'm not in panic mode for now but I do get the feeling that if we fail to hop on the feedback loop now, we could be waiting a long time to see another opportunity.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This morning'd gfs still on track for a cold weekend. Certainly some potential for snow on Saturday perhaps more inclined to the west and east but the detail will have to wait a couple of days. Pointless speculating now.

Charts weatherbell

post-12275-0-27809300-1447736619_thumb.p

post-12275-0-75550100-1447736625_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5862/gfsnh-0-192_xna5.png

 

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3284/ECH1-192_iqr5.GIF

 

T192 and much to resolve. Not much point looking past T120 IMO although ill take the ECM please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Somehow the ECM plucks a repeat performance out of the locker - T168-T216 see yet another northerly behind a trough from the NW. Well it was the first onto this weekend's cold snap ... will have to wait to see if has got cold snap no.2 correct as well!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Blimey hardly any posts this morning!!for a minute i actually thought this weeks northerly had been completely cancelled lol!!!this evenings runs are gona be interesting reason being one thing i have noticed is the 12z runs have been more amplified in general than the 00z runs for some reason i dont know!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

ECM snatches victory from the jaws of defeat thanks to that Eastern Canadian trough giving us a quick follow on cold snap. Difficult to be sure where we would go from that position if it were to verify. My money would be on PM airmass for a bit followed by a window of opportunity for further height rises to our NW thereafter. All pie in the sky though as much to be resolved before we get there.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

Somehow the ECM plucks a repeat performance out of the locker - T168-T216 see yet another northerly behind a trough from the NW. Well it was the first onto this weekend's cold snap ... will have to wait to see if has got cold snap no.2 correct as well!

I believe GFS was on to it first, showing height rises to NW,  whilst ECM has performed better overall, verification wise

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

For those interesting, the delayed GEFS (ensembles) upgrade (and it's a pretty major upgrade) will be going live on 2nd December according to NCEP. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The snow row for Saturday on the London GFS ens is up-to 12 now out of 23

 

gefsens850london0.png?cb=61

 

Aberdeen is up-to 20 now for the 21st so a high chance of snow based on this run

 

gefsens850aberdeen0.png?cb=61

 

Inverness is at 19 for the 21st

 

gefsens850inverness0.png?cb=61

 

A bit further south Liverpool and Newcastle are on 18 for the 21st

 

gefsens850newcastle0.png?cb=61gefsens850liverpool0.png?cb=61

 

So based on this run anywhere from Liverpool north has a good chance of seeing some snow this weekend further south the chance is lower but for high ground you never know

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

For those interesting, the delayed GEFS (ensembles) upgrade (and it's a pretty major upgrade) will be going live on 2nd December according to NCEP.

Ha!

I thought they went live last month!

I've been taking the GEFS seriously for weeks!

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Since it's been mentioned but nobody has posted the charts, here's the ECM's attempt at a brief reload...

 

ECH1-216.GIF?17-12

 

ECH0-216.GIF?17-12

 

And now onto the 6z GFS, to see what that brings us.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Ha!

I thought they went live last month!

I've been taking the GEFS seriously for weeks!

 

It was all set to go live but got pulled at the last minute as it wasn't signed off by the director apparently. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Looking at that last chart this morning from UKMO, its appears to be close to ECM output. Could produce a reload of a more direct Arctic attack for a time. We have to close look at the low pressure development in that time span between Iceland and Greenland. The UKMO shows this formation in the latter stages of their latest model run in that region of interest and more importantly with a associated upper trough. This low should deepen in The Norwegian Sea and allow a flood gate of Arctic air for a short time. Beyond that, who knows what can develop , but an interest end to the month for weather watches. Glad to see some snow heading my way ( Eastern Alps )  this weekend. Getting excited now.

 C

 

post-3489-0-42981300-1447754678_thumb.gi

 

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

Reload!!

 

h500slp.png

 

h500slp.png

 

h500slp.png

 

h500slp.png

 

:D

Edited by pip22
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

GFS 06Z - not a million miles from the ECM, but I'm guessing this one is cold rather than wintry, away from northern hills.

 

gfs-0-222.png?6

 

Interesting trends though, I haven't seen any output get the Azores High back into Europe - as long as it stays there and the jet doesn't fire up too much, there's always the risk of a short northerly outbreak.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The 6z GFS shows colder -11 850's push into Scotland for the weekend, With a higher Snow risk further South. Detail all subject to change of course..

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post-12319-0-94901600-1447757009_thumb.p

Edited by Polar Maritime
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