South East England and East Anglia weather discussion/chat - 15th November 2015 onwards

[snowray]

Ian F over on model discussion board just said that any snow won't settle in the South, but things could still change...

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

GET IN!

12Z brings us back into play!

 

 

Not all of us!  I'm a touch miffed that this seems to be developing into a "Kent and Sussex" regional thread, or, at best, a "SE corner" thread, rather than SE & EA.  Apologies for the moan.  Anyway, from what has been suggested to me elsewhere on NW, I suspect the exact positioning of snow won't be known until shortly before it happens.

[Steve C]

Not all of us!  I'm a touch miffed that this seems to be developing into a "Kent and Sussex" regional thread, or, at best, a "SE corner" thread, rather than SE & EA.  Apologies for the moan.  Anyway, from what has been suggested to me elsewhere on NW, I suspect the exact positioning of snow won't be known until shortly before it happens.

 

I think it's (Saturday) more interesting in being a very rough early Winter's day. Windchill, very strong winds, rain / sleet / snow mix etc. Horses for courses though.

[Flash Elvis]

Ian F over on model discussion board just said that any snow won't settle in the South, but things could still change...

I will be very surprised it settles as the ground temp will be fairly warm.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I think it's (Saturday) more interesting in being a very rough early Winter's day. Windchill, very strong winds, rain / sleet / snow mix etc. Horses for courses though.

 

Indeed Steve; that's how I view the probable course of events away from the highest ground in these two regions.

[Kent Blizzard]

Not all of us!  I'm a touch miffed that this seems to be developing into a "Kent and Sussex" regional thread, or, at best, a "SE corner" thread, rather than SE & EA.  Apologies for the moan.  Anyway, from what has been suggested to me elsewhere on NW, I suspect the exact positioning of snow won't be known until shortly before it happens.

Contribute then and fly the flag for your Region ...simples

Many people will go for an IMBY view because they probably know what set-up is needed to deliver for there Region   Take Kent for instance, we have our own Microclimate   As for East Anglia I'm not sure what you need to go your way but Euro4 wants to bring you snow.

Edited November 19, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[Captain Shortwave]

Dry here all day, contrary to most people. 

Up here in the north west of the region I was quite hopeful of seeing a dusting on Saturday, this is beginning to look a little less likely unfortunately. The wind however looks quite notable again, luckily this doesn't seem to coincide with high tides for once.

Edited November 19, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[snowray]

If it was cold enough as per the charts that we saw upto yesterdays 18z, anywhere in the region could have had a chance of some snow even if it was just a passing light shower. The most recent GFS ensembles do show a rise in temperatures though for the crucial Saturday morning period, I am hoping that they are wrong. ;-)

Edited November 19, 2015 by snowray

[Rain123]

Today has been cloudy and a bit wet. To snow or not to snow, that is the question.

[Daniel*]

Not all of us!  I'm a touch miffed that this seems to be developing into a "Kent and Sussex" regional thread, or, at best, a "SE corner" thread, rather than SE & EA.  Apologies for the moan.  Anyway, from what has been suggested to me elsewhere on NW, I suspect the exact positioning of snow won't be known until shortly before it happens.

Well it looks quite good for you on Euro 4.

About the ground being too warm to settle I assume MO are taking that under consideration although I've known snow to settle before following a real soaking. If the cold air was already established there could have been several inches for large swathes of Eastern England although perhaps there's a potential for a few CM for a lucky few.

As of 6am I would say all the precipitation inland will be of snow.

Fax is interesting a general spell of sleet/snow for our region by that occlusion?

[Captain Shortwave]

The accumulations from the Euro 4 suggests nothing, but snow will fall early on during the day, the midday chart does show the snow turning back to rain.

To be honest I would take falling snow so fingers crossed.

[Ben Lewis]

9am Saturday according to bbc1 forecast.

Nick Miller "falling snow in SE England, but not expected to settle"

I'll take that to the mild Atlantic crap we've had to endure all month with not 1 frost yet.

Edited November 19, 2015 by Ben Lewis

[Daniel*]

The mention of the 'S' word included in yellow wind warning -

A swathe of gale force north to northwesterly winds, accompanied by a band of rain and snow, will move south across much of central and southern Britain on Friday night and Saturday. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are likely, with a lower likelihood of 60-70 mph gusts, perhaps most likely in exposed parts of east coastal England. In any one area, the strongest winds will last for only a few hours, clearing last from southeastern areas of England.

Additionally, some of the snow may settle, this more likely over some of the high ground, for example in north Wales, but there is a possibility of temporary settling snow even at low levels. The worst affected areas may see a few cm but on current evidence, most places will see little if any lying snow. On Saturday morning, ice will be an additional hazard, particularly for higher level routes.

East Sussex, Greater London, Kent, Surrey, West Sussex, Medway, Buckinghamshire, Milton Keynes, Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead, Oxfordshire, Bracknell Forest, Wokingham

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings®ionName=se&fcTime=1447977600

[Mesoscale]

Any falling snow is better than the past 2 years of no snow. haha

[Alpine glow]

The mention of the 'S' word included in yellow wind warning -

A swathe of gale force north to northwesterly winds, accompanied by a band of rain and snow, will move south across much of central and southern Britain on Friday night and Saturday. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are likely, with a lower likelihood of 60-70 mph gusts, perhaps most likely in exposed parts of east coastal England. In any one area, the strongest winds will last for only a few hours, clearing last from southeastern areas of England.

Additionally, some of the snow may settle, this more likely over some of the high ground, for example in north Wales, but there is a possibility of temporary settling snow even at low levels. The worst affected areas may see a few cm but on current evidence, most places will see little if any lying snow. On Saturday morning, ice will be an additional hazard, particularly for higher level routes.

East Sussex, Greater London, Kent, Surrey, West Sussex, Medway, Buckinghamshire, Milton Keynes, Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead, Oxfordshire, Bracknell Forest, Wokingham

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings®ionName=se&fcTime=1447977600

image.jpeg

Blow East Sussex, Blow!! 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Contribute then and fly the flag for your Region ...simples

Many people will go for an IMBY view because they probably know what set-up is needed to deliver for there Region   Take Kent for instance, we have our own Microclimate   As for East Anglia I'm not sure what you need to go your way but Euro4 wants to bring you snow.

 

Fair enough - it was your use of "we" rather than "IMBY" which made me moan.

Well it looks quite good for you on Euro 4.

About the ground being too warm to settle I assume MO are taking that under consideration although I've known snow to settle before following a real soaking. If the cold air was already established there could have been several inches for large swathes of Eastern England although perhaps there's a potential for a few CM for a lucky few.

image.gifimage.gifimage.gif

As of 6am I would say all the precipitation inland will be of snow.

Fax is interesting a general spell of sleet/snow for our region by that occlusion?

image.gif

 

It does, but Ian Fergusson has said the Mt Office think that the EURO4 is wrong.

[bluebell]

Blow East Sussex, Blow!! 

I played a wind instrument in my distant past so I'll honour your request, dig it out and start blowing, will help for sure!

[Lauren]

They were pretty optimistic on the snow on the forecast on the BBC just now. I'm happy not to see a proper laying snow event right now, but it'd be lovely to see a nice little shower.

[Ben Lewis]

Helen Willets "not likely to settle but exciting nonetheless"

Only going up to 5am though..... Hmmmm

Sorry about the angle, don't know why it posts like that!

[snowray]

Having looked around a bit tonight at the various models and forecasts, I get the feeling that it will settle in places in our area, maybe North of London will be favoured, the band of snow turning up at that sort of time in the morning also helps. Also the PPN looks a fair bit heavier than earlier, so there are all sorts of other factors at play like evaporative cooling.

Surprise snowfalls are always more fun so all still to play for, I have lost count of the number of times the professionals have said it won't settle, or just sleet and it turned out to be settling snow.

Edited November 19, 2015 by snowray

[Blessed Weather]

From tonight's Look East forecast, it looks like most of us will see some of the white stuff falling at some stage - although you'll either have to stay up or set the alarm early as the fun starts at 03.00 in the morning!

 

03.00 06.00 09.00

 

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

From tonight's Look East forecast, it looks like most of us will see some of the white stuff falling at some stage - although you'll either have to stay up or set the alarm early as the fun starts at 03.00 in the morning!

 

03.00 20151119_185533_resized.jpg 06.00 20151119_185538_resized.jpg 09.0020151119_185543_resized.jpg

 

Also, the forecaster is a Netweather member.

[VillagePlank]

Interesting weather setup for SE tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Here's the relevant charts for 9am Saturday morning

 

 

500hPa heights really need to be 520 or below. It's at 522, so marginal. Next is the temperature at 850hPa - this needs to be less than -5degC: it's bang on the nose, but could do with being a little colder, there. Also, we really need the web bulb temperature of where the cloud is to be zero or below, but here it's between 2-4degC (can't get the chart for 9am) so way above.

 

So, will it snow? Looks unlikely at sea-level, but a lot of the parameters are marginal, so one would think within heavier showers sleet seems a reasonable prospect. On the South and North Downs, much more likely to see sleet, and, perhaps, some snow, but precipitation seems to peter out as it travels south so - at the very best - maybe 1cm settling in the most favourable high spots on the North Downs.

 

Personally, not holding out for much (even though I'm near the top of Bluebell Hill) - the factors are towards the marginal side, so I would expect some places to see some snow (where local features promote such things) but certainly not widespread.

 

(All to change, BTW, the 500hPa heights chart moved east by some 150 miles between GFS runs, so very fluid numerical forecasting situation)

Edited November 19, 2015 by VillagePlank

[Kent Blizzard]

Fair enough - it was your use of "we" rather than "IMBY" which made me moan.

 

It does, but Ian Fergusson has said the Mt Office think that the EURO4 is wrong.

 BUT  the word WE would still include you in EA looking at the maps unless I have missed something, you have a better potential? 

 

Anyway let's not be pedantic and enjoy it no matter who get's what.

Edited November 19, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

 BUT  the word WE would still include you in EA looking at the maps unless I have missed something, you have a better potential? 

 

Anyway let's not be pedantic and enjoy it no matter who get's what.

 

No problem - I must have misread the outputs.    I thought your chances were better than mine.