South East England and East Anglia weather discussion/chat - 15th November 2015 onwards

[snowray]

Some areas will be in the honey pot tomorrow, my tip for decent snow, IE an inch or two would be just North West of London, Chilterns, out towards Oxfordshire going West and around Luton going East.

[Alpine glow]

The 00 and the 06 runs from the GFS have us down in Kent and up into EA for something from about 6am onwards tomorrow.

 

Now we play, the waiting game.

I don't suppose it extends to Brighton, does it?! 

[throwoff]

I don't suppose it extends to Brighton, does it?! 

 

Maybe..!

 

[Ben Lewis]

Well the 06z has a reasonable chance of my town getting snow tomorrow. Albeit wet and not settling.

 

With Harpenden being at the edge of the Chilterns / 5 miles south of Luton and decent height Im hoping to at least see a few flakes.

[Alpine glow]

Maybe..!

 

Fingers crossed!  We have done so well on the coast here since 2009, anything is possible

[snowray]

Fingers crossed!  We have done so well on the coast here since 2009, anything is possible

Brighton looked well away from the action, but today its got itself right in there, particularly the South Downs. Funny how East anglia looked best all this week, and now its in the mild sector nearest to the low running down the North Sea. Just goes to show how things can change at short notice.

Edited November 20, 2015 by snowray

[Alpine glow]

Brighton looked well away from the action, but today its got itself right in there, particularly the South Downs. Funny how East anglia looked best all this week, and now its in the mild sector nearest to the low running down the North Sea. Just goes to show how things can change at short notice.

...& that's the most exciting thing about it!  Even if there is no laying snow, this forum is THE best place to be for the build up which is the most exciting part  I'm on the highest point in Brighton, sometimes when it snows this part is unreachable yet on the seafront its just rain or sleet.  Oh how I love the British weather !!

[Kent Blizzard]

If the meto forecast symbols are anything to go by ( which 90% time they are not ) then I'm down for light snow at 2am but heavy rain late tomorrow morning.

 

I'm not too fussed with that, the heavy rain can easily turn to snow 

[afcone]

It's looking very marginal here.  Looking at the high-res outputs I reckon it'll be sleet but you never know!

[Alpine glow]

Met Office have just updated their warnings, it seems everything remains the same for us: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1448064000&regionName=se

[Kent Blizzard]

I see the latest Meto Warning update goes for gales rather than snow

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1448064000&regionName=se

 

EDIT: LOL Spooky Alpine Glow ^^^ 

Edited November 20, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[cobbett]

I see the latest Meto Warning update goes for gales rather than snow

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1448064000&regionName=se

 

EDIT: LOL Spooky Alpine Glow ^^^ 

The metoffice will reach an all time low (IMO) in severe weather alerts if they issue one for snow for us down here ! 

[Daniel*]

If the meto forecast symbols are anything to go by ( which 90% time they are not ) then I'm down for light snow at 2am but heavy rain late tomorrow morning.

 

I'm not too fussed with that, the heavy rain can easily turn to snow 

Evaporative cooling may cause the precipitation to stay as snow for longer than modelled.

[Ben Lewis]

I see the latest Meto Warning update goes for gales rather than snow

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1448064000&regionName=se

 

EDIT: LOL Spooky Alpine Glow ^^^ 

 

I should think so, It would be pretty silly to give out a warning based on the chance of a sleet/wet snow shower.

Edited November 20, 2015 by Ben Lewis

[Daniel*]

I see the latest Meto Warning update goes for gales rather than snow

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1448064000&regionName=se

 

EDIT: LOL Spooky Alpine Glow ^^^ 

"Additionally, some of the snow may settle, this more likely over some of the high ground, for example in Northern Ireland and north Wales on Friday evening, with a few cm over hills. There is a possibility of temporary, small amounts of settling snow even at low levels away from eastern coastal counties of England though most areas should miss this. On Saturday morning, ice will be an additional hazard, particularly for higher level routes."

I will not be having much sleep

[Kent Blizzard]

"Additionally, some of the snow may settle, this more likely over some of the high ground, for example in Northern Ireland and north Wales on Friday evening, with a few cm over hills. There is a possibility of temporary, small amounts of settling snow even at low levels away from eastern coastal counties of England though most areas should miss this. On Saturday morning, ice will be an additional hazard, particularly for higher level routes."

I will not be having much sleep

 

 think they mean Eastern Areas away from the Coasts in the North Daniel? 

[afcone]

My area is only forecasting 40mph gusts at the worst.  The fact that it's still under the recently updated warning zone suggests that there's still some uncertainty over the track of the trough even at this late stage.  So perhaps all is not lost with regards to the white stuff!

[Daniel*]

think they mean Eastern Areas away from the Coasts in the North Daniel?

I think you're right! oops:

Well it feels colder here hopefully the skies are clear overnight before precip arrives.

Every little helps

[Kent Blizzard]

I think you're right! oops:

Well it feels colder here hopefully the skies are clear overnight before precip arrives.

Every little helps

 

It's forecast to here Daniel   I'm off tonight but will be back about midnight, if I still have my vision I may browse the charts and radar but not sure I'll stay up for it this time   ...Late tomorrow morning will be my focus just incase eveything falls into place at the correct time 

[VillagePlank]

The SE clutching at straw analysis (GFS 6z)

 

 

Precipitation is now pushed much later to around lunchtime: there is some precipitation for the SE overnight, but it looks like the hit and miss showery type. Some of this will be wintry, but none look substantial nor heavy. Some will see some, a lot more people won't.

 

 

500hPa thickness. Rain and snow are equally likely at 522dm (the light blue on these charts) Snow is extremely rare when it's above 534dm (the green on these charts) (these are empirical UK-only estimates) Not the increase in thickness as this coincides with the rain. This isn't the whole story:

 

 

Just looking at the 500hPa thickness chart could hide much cooler lower levels and warmer higher levels (since 500hPa is a great big wedge of the vertical atmosphere) However, in this, case, it really looks like the warmer layer is at 850hPa which is not what you want for snow. It does mean in heavier showers snow may get to the ground, indeed sleet looks reasonably likely.

 

 

Alas, this is confirmed with the Theta-W charts (wet bulb potential) which we need to be ideally 0degC or lower for snow to actually form in the cloud. Lot of local factors such as height (which narrows the amount of 850hPa thickness) and heavier shows all modify this.

 

From a purely SE perspective - snow looks (very) unlikely outside the usual spots, but wintry showers may well occur. Settled snow looks confined to outside the SE region altogether. There could well be snow on the leading or back edge of the rain but it will be transient and in any case will not settle. At sea level, it looks like rain all the way.

Edited November 20, 2015 by VillagePlank

[Ben Lewis]

Starting to feel much more seasonal out there, car thermometer now reading 8c - Some lovely blue sky with clouds passing through

 

So much better than the mild damp grey wet Atlantic.

 

My area always seems to do OK in marginal events, still not expecting proper or lying snow here but wet snow may greet me in the morning.

(If there is enough ppn around that is)

 

I'm just happy it will feel colder and more christmassy for our towns light switch on and Christmas carnival, although I have no interest in the wind as nothing seems to be noticeable around here unless gusts are above 70/75mph otherwise it just feels like a normal very windy autumn day.

[Daniel*]

The NMM 6z looks rather good although I fear it may be overdoing it however I take that model over the GFS hands down it looks pretty uncertain here although I feel this region will have some snow contrary to VP.

[Kent Blizzard]

Did anyone else have that shower about 40mins ago? was almost like hail on higher ground.

 

Certainly starting to feel chilly.as it starts getting clear.

 

Meto have the rain symbols out and no snow or sleet, one thing I hate is freezing rain   Seen it before though where it brings a surprise..tick tock tick tock

Edited November 20, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[john mac]

Clear skies here but turning colder by the hour.

[steveinsussex]

It will be chilly down here but that's about it