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South East England and East Anglia weather discussion/chat - 15th November 2015 onwards

Captain Shortwave

By Captain Shortwave
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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted

No problem - I must have misread the outputs. :oops:   I thought your chances were better than mine.

I think it's marginal tbh for all in this thread but till it happens who know and certainly more enjoyable watching than of late, Plenty of twists and turns to come and interesting the ian F statement about the Euro4 that you stated.

 

Can't take the meto forecasts too seriously but you have a snow symbol for Suffolk Ski Centre at 18:00 Saturday lol 

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

 

Can't take the meto forecasts too seriously but you have a snow symbol for Suffolk Ski Centre at 18:00 Saturday lol 

 

I'm afraid I'm not sure where that is LOL.  As a Norfolkman there's a certain amount of "banter" between us and those from Suffolk!  Think of a less hostile version of Lancs vs. Yorks. :D

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

@EssexWeather 2hr ago

This evenings high-res model run from @MetOffice shows a dusting to 1CM of snow in Central and Western Essex on Sat morning.

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

And big upgrade on the GFS 18z! LP slightly further East and the cold air digging in further South and East, more PPN too.

Happy days... :-)

Edited by snowray
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Long haul to mild Community Regular

Long haul to mild

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
Posted (edited)

I'm afraid I'm not sure where that is LOL. As a Norfolkman there's a certain amount of "banter" between us and those from Suffolk! Think of a less hostile version of Lancs vs. Yorks. :D

Suffolk Ski centre is in Ipswich, just a few miles from me. Hope that snow symbol has some truth in it, but I won't be holding my breath!

Banter between Norfolk and Suffolk? Never! :)

Coincidentally, was up in Norfolk today and saw Mulbarton on a road sign!

Edited by Long haul to mild
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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)

If ever a nowcast situation needed demonstrating I think this Weekend will be a very good example. It's going to be a roller coaster, some happy people and some not so, some won't believe how a couple miles can make all the difference. I guess atleast we will all feel the cold  :D

 

...Who's ready for the ride  :yahoo:  :cold:

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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loopydreamer Contributor

loopydreamer

Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
Posted (edited)

And big upgrade on the GFS 18z! LP slightly further East and the cold air digging in further South and East, more PPN too.

Happy days... :-)

More PPN?! ... I have to say, I'm really not that excited about a few flakes of snow falling from the sky although it would be nice to see.

A dusting? :/ ... If it only lasted an hour or two on the ground before melting what's exciting about that? I guess I'm always gonna be an extreme weather chick. I will look forward to the day when I see at least a good 5 inches of snow on the ground again .... nice fat flakes falling from the sky or better yet, BLIZZARDS!! ;) ... Until then it will be just ... nice/Okay/Meh to me when I watch a few measly flakes. I will continue to watch the charts however, and get hopeful that maybe we will see a few cm's. I know that won't be likely though ... lol :)

Edited by loopydreamer
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snowrye Seasoned

snowrye

Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
Posted

I wont get excited with this,marginal has been mentioned to many times and for my location its always rain

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

More PPN?! ... I have to say, I'm really not that excited about a few flakes of snow falling from the sky although it would be nice to see.

A dusting? :/ ... If it only lasted an hour or two on the ground before melting what's exciting about that? I guess I'm always gonna be an extreme weather chick. I will look forward to the day when I see at least a good 5 inches of snow on the ground again .... nice fat flakes falling from the sky or better yet, BLIZZARDS!! ;) ... Until then it will be just ... nice/Okay/Meh to me when I watch a few measly flakes. I will continue to watch the charts however, and get hopeful that maybe we will see a few cm's. I know that won't be likely though ... lol :)

 

I kind of agree. I like a reasonable cover of dry snow that lasts for a while - I don't ask for much then in SE England. :D I dislike sleet with a passion (unless it's transitional...) I'm not really a fan of slushy stuff either - when you walk in it, you immediately leave a dark imprint of your footwear and all around is dripping. Yuk!

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weathergeek Community Regular

weathergeek

Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
Posted

Well I'm excited even just for the prospect of seeing anything more wintry - and whilst still in NOVEMBER, yay!!!

After a huge snow drought I'd be more than happy with a few flakes, however I hope these won't be the last we see but then we have a good 3mths plus still to go!!!xx

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loopydreamer Contributor

loopydreamer

Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
Posted (edited)

In the UK every winter it's prety likely that we'll see some flurries, a few flakes, some lying snow for a few hours before it melts :( ... boring!

I am really hoping we will see snow that will lay and stay for at least a couple of days so we can enjoy building snow men and using a sleigh this year :) Does this possible snow in November guarantee we'll get a nice covering in the south east to enjoy for a few days this coming winter? No.. because weather here is so unpredictable.

Edited by loopydreamer
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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

I'll be very surprised to see any snow here, normally one of the last places to see it anyway and all looks way too marginal. The main concern for Sat is the strength of the wind...looks like there could be some severe gale gusts making it feel very unpleasant.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Author
Posted (edited)

The GFS this morning goes for around an inch of snow over parts of Essex, Kent and East London, not a lot elsewhere with areas further north in East Anglia tending to get more of a wintry mix.

33-780UK.GIF?20-0

 

It make sense as the coldest 850s, dew points are found the further west you go.

 

Still plenty of time for changes still.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

http://uk-map1.com/Free_detailed_roadmap_of_UK_map504062_0_0.htm

 

High detailed map.

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted

Morning all

A very interesting 48hrs ahead with almost a touch of everything on offer.

Let's see how the outputs perform in the reliable timeframe, good time for making notes and saving charts for future education/research.

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

Update from yesterday's post, for the far SE. Here's the relevant charts - the best time has now moved forward to 6am:

 

post-5986-0-81889000-1448010284_thumb.gipost-5986-0-19491300-1448010289_thumb.gipost-5986-0-18489700-1448010294_thumb.gipost-5986-0-86427800-1448010298_thumb.gi

 

500hPa heights is still >520dm, with the crucial boundary lying off in the North Sea: certainly, the further east you are the better with this parameter. 850hPa temperature is right on the cusp ranging from -4degC to -6degC with the value for expecting snow to be -5degC or lower, so looks better the further east and north with this one. Wet bulb temps where the clouds are are the killer, in my view, at >2,3degC; it really needs to be 0degC or lower. And, to add further, precipitation looks to be lighter and further east with a chance of completely missing the SE all together.

 

This is, of course, simply raw reading of GFS raw output. Given the N/NW flow (unstable long sea track) it's perfectly reasonable to suggest that convective cloud might also come into play - if we were further into winter one might suggest, ahem, cough, thunder-snow, if the lapse rates were good enough (total totals is great, K-index suggests no convection at all, no CAPE, and LI index of 10!) which they are not.

 

Clearly height above sea level is going to be a player in situations such as these, and the placement of the airmasses are changing quite a bit from run to run, so, by all means, this is not definitive; that said, looks at best for sea-level, sleet, and given location, height, and heavier showers, snow on the North Downs - South Downs aren't high enough to escape the marginal -4degC 850ha temp, but not expecting settling of any degree. Ice will be the biggest worry with sub-zero surface temperatures overnight.

 

Best the 6z change everything again!!

Edited by VillagePlank
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loopydreamer Contributor

loopydreamer

Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
Posted

For me it's not the snow that takes my interest.. It's the 60mph possibly 70mph winds that will zip through early tomorrow morning

It would be nice to see some snow but I too am more interested in the high winds tomorrow :)

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hernebaylooby Enthusiast

hernebaylooby

Posted
  • Location: herne bay,kent
  • Weather Preferences: lots of snow and cold crisp mornings! thunder storms!
  • Location: herne bay,kent
Posted

Hey guys well its that time of year i return to the forums, hope everyone is well? Looking forward to things cooling down in the upcoming weeks x

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Ben Lewis Rising Star

Ben Lewis

Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
Posted

Hoping to see a least a 5 minute Snow shower tomorrow. Will be a nice surprise and welcome to all the mild weather.

 

Couldn't care less about a 50/60mph wind gust, doesn't do anything for me and will just seem like a normal windy day.

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Jimmyh Rising Star

Jimmyh

Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
Posted

Hey guys well its that time of year i return to the forums, hope everyone is well? Looking forward to things cooling down in the upcoming weeks x

Welcome back the Winter people are coming out of hibernation

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Snow band further West on latest 06z run, wow major shifts in the PPN at the last minute, as things stand the snow is all West of London on this run. Anyone remember late October 2009 I think, snowed and settled in the home counties on a very, very marginal even, so anything can happen if it can snow and settle in October. Charts look fantastic, pity we are not in winter proper as this would have been ALL snow just about everywhere as the front clears East.

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)

Hey guys well its that time of year i return to the forums, hope everyone is well? Looking forward to things cooling down in the upcoming weeks x

Not bad Looby and welcome back  :hi:

 

I'm looking forward to an afternoon in the pub tomorrow, football results on the tv's coming through and having one eye looking out the window just to see what the weather is doing  :yahoo:  :drinks:  :cold:

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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throwoff Seasoned

throwoff

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

The 00 and the 06 runs from the GFS have us down in Kent and up into EA for something from about 6am onwards tomorrow.

 

Now we play, the waiting game.

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