Winter 2015/16.

[March Blizzard]

Wasn't warm out there today. Hovered around 7C here with a cold wind.

[Summer Sun]

ECM temp anomalies for the final few days of December and the first 10 days of January can be summed up quite easily 'mild' and not just the for the UK

Charts provided by WSI Euro weather

Edited December 11, 2015 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

While too early to write winter off, i'm beginning to fear that the +PDO, Strong El Nino and +QBO combination is delivering a winter more akin to 07 than 10.

Using the 3 measures i'd rank the most likely analogues in this order..

83 (mild, mild, cold)

 

87 (mild, cold, average)

98 (mild, average, mild)

03 (mild, average, average)

 

88 (mild, average, average)

92 (average, average, mild)

95 (mild, average, mild)

07 (mild, mild, mild)

 

(Jan-March)

 

Certainly our more likely analogues seem to break for a mild (CET+1c>) December before a slight bias towards near average in Jan and Feb. This would be consistent with my findings that basin wide and west based events bias the AO to negative during Jan and Feb. The less likely analogues seem to want a mild Feb though.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

41 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

While too early to write winter off, i'm beginning to fear that the +PDO, Strong El Nino and +QBO combination is delivering a winter more akin to 07 than 10.

Using the 3 measures i'd rank the most likely analogues in this order..

83 (mild, mild, cold)

 

87 (mild, cold, average)

98 (mild, average, mild)

03 (mild, average, average)

 

88 (mild, average, average)

92 (average, average, mild)

95 (mild, average, mild)

07 (mild, mild, mild)

 

(Jan-March)

 

Certainly our more likely analogues seem to break for a mild (CET+1c>) December before a slight bias towards near average in Jan and Feb. This would be consistent with my findings that basin wide and west based events bias the AO to negative during Jan and Feb. The less likely analogues seem to want a mild Feb though.

Do you mean (Dec-Feb)? Because  looking at 87 for example (presuming you mean Winter 1986/87) the (mild, cold, average) looks right but below you've put (Jan-Mar) and in 1987s case that would have been (cold, average, cold) I think? So just checking whether you put (Jan-Mar) by mistake?

Edited December 11, 2015 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Summer Sun]

Turning milder next week then colder next weekend before turning milder again at the start of Christmas week

A bit of everything over the next 10 days or so

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35077364

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Can't say I'm surprised SS, fully expect that part of the forecast to be correct, about mild to start Xmas week, and can believe the 'colder next weekend' bit, 10C and windy for the South, sleet/snow showers for the north

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Do you mean (Dec-Feb)? Because  looking at 87 for example (presuming you mean Winter 1986/87) the (mild, cold, average) looks right but below you've put (Jan-Mar) and in 1987s case that would have been (cold, average, cold) I think? So just checking whether you put (Jan-Mar) by mistake?

Yes, Dec-Feb.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I reckon this spell of weather would "feel" far more remarkable if it involved some of those rare days of unusual warmth accompanied by bright sunshine (like 13 February 1998 did across the majority of England).   Or if a few days of unusual warmth really stuck out, like in the second week of December 1994.  At the moment it just feels to me like a typical changeable mid to late autumn spell, but in December.  I imagine that I'd have far harsher words to say about it if I was living in or near Cumbria though, especially with more persistent rain to come tomorrow.

I'm keeping an eye on Thursday/Friday of next week- potential for record high temperatures by both day and night if that comes off.

Edited December 11, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[Weather-history]

It struck me that the El Niños that were classified as strong to very strong 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98 all had Aprils that were on the cool to cold side and or had a notable wintry episode in them after those winters.

Edited December 12, 2015 by Weather-history
.

[March Blizzard]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

It struck me that the El Niños that were classified as strong to very strong 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98 all had Aprils that were on the cool to cold side and or had a notable wintry episode in them after those winters.

What about March and to a lesser extent Feb, WH?

I'm thinking along the lines of a tail-end winter...

[Weather-history]

17 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

What about March and to a lesser extent Feb, WH?

I'm thinking along the lines of a tail-end winter...

March 1958 was cold, February 1973 had a wintry period.

February 1966 was an interesting month, cold in Scotland but mild further south but with a cold mid month.

February 1983 was a cold month.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

All this mild weather and we can still get pleasant surprises like today 

[Costa Del Fal]

2 hours ago, Pomeroysnow said:

All this mild weather and we can still get pleasant surprises like today 

Much easier for you lot in the north. Manchester southwards always finds it so much harder in this set up.

[Carl46Wrexham]

On 10 December 2015 at 7:25 PM, Ed Stone said:

Don't get me wrong, peeps; I love snow as much as any of you. But when snow's not on the menu, 16C is surely better than 8C??

Not when it's bloody raining all the time...so no not really :-(

 

[damianslaw]

Observation - the last 2 times we saw flooding anywhere near a bad as last week were Jan 2005 and Nov 2009. Not saying it will happen again, but its very uncanny how a month after these events we saw cold blocked set ups with easterlies and northerlies lasting a month.

 

Mid Feb - Mid Mar 05

Mid Dec 09 - Mid Jan 10

The 4 week period leading up to the change was dominated in the main by atlantic mild weather, but we did see northerly incursions in early Feb 05.

The periods above were relatively dry in the north and even more interesting is how we saw a length very dry spell after these events, 2005/2006 and 2010 into 2011 was very dry overall..

 

Mother nature has a habit of balancing herself out.

[Liam J]

Crazy temperature contrast! Currently 1.4c here so might even get the first air frost!! 

[Terminal Moraine]

Today is the 8th day this month to reach a maximum temp'  of 10c here, a record for December and it's only the 12th.

The previous record was 7 days in 1985 and 2000. Even December 1988, which was the mildest on record, managed only 5 days with 10c.

[MP-R]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Observation - the last 2 times we saw flooding anywhere near a bad as last week were Jan 2005 and Nov 2009. Not saying it will happen again, but its very uncanny how a month after these events we saw cold blocked set ups with easterlies and northerlies lasting a month.

 

Mid Feb - Mid Mar 05

Mid Dec 09 - Mid Jan 10

The 4 week period leading up to the change was dominated in the main by atlantic mild weather, but we did see northerly incursions in early Feb 05.

The periods above were relatively dry in the north and even more interesting is how we saw a length very dry spell after these events, 2005/2006 and 2010 into 2011 was very dry overall..

 

Mother nature has a habit of balancing herself out.

And interestingly, cold incursion came as early 10 days after the January 2005 event with a brief northerly on the 18th then more persistent cold weather by the 22nd. We had snow here on the 23rd and a run of cold frosty days thereafter. Fingers crossed this is the case now though I feel we may have to wait a bit longer.

[rs80soaps]

Forecast next week for Middleton is 12c for the middle of December so disappointing, I think us snow lovers are done for.

[Fat Bloke]

To me glad to get rid of this year,must be getting close to the dullest year on record so boring the seasons we don't have  any more.

Edited December 12, 2015 by Fat Bloke

[MR EXTREMES]

id be inclined to think this winter is over if cold in the south is whats being expected...

very super  el nino 97/98 

Edited December 12, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[Weather-history]

7 hours ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

id be inclined to think this winter is over if cold in the south is whats being expected...

very super  el nino 97/98 

 

7 hours ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

id be inclined to think this winter is over if cold in the south is whats being expected...

very super  el nino 97/98 

Here are photos of Portsmouth from December 1997 with snow on the ground during the El Niño you mentioned.

http://www.oocities.org/motorcity/1333/prtmsnw2.htm

http://www.oocities.org/motorcity/1333/prtmsnow.htm

 

[Liam J]

13th of December and the first air frost of the winter (and all of autumn) Still 0c now. 

Nice pattern on my car.

[Summer Sun]

Some huge contracts between the north and south of the country at the moment, winter in the north and early spring like in the south

 

Edited December 13, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Liam J]

After the coldest night of the season follows the coldest day with a max temp this afternoon of 3.4c. 

Edited December 13, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*