Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Winter 2015/16.

Recommended Posts

Just now, IanR said:

and in 14 days time the nights will slowly get lighter :D 


Remember that old saying 'As the days grow longer, the cold grows stronger'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:


Remember that old saying 'As the days grow longer, the cold grows stronger'

What cold? :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Summer Sun said:


Remember that old saying 'As the days grow longer, the cold grows stronger'

still the count down to spring for me, but yes , happens more often than not,  but after dec 2010 it got much milder into the latter half of winter, so its not a done deal, but it couldnt really maintain that intensity of cold all winter ,  but also this mild cannot continue well into feb , can it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Snowdrops and Daffodil shoots growing apace here.

Calendar says December...today felt like Spring at 14.4c..ridiculous

 

 

 

Edited by Carl46Wrexham

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Might sound rather simplistic, but we often see our weather balance itself out, notably cold/hot periods cancelling each other out, notably wet/dry periods cancelling each other out.

The cold of Dec 2010 being quite a good case in point, things turned very mild in Feb lasting through the spring.

The dry winter of 2011/2012 and March followed by record wetness in spring and summer.

The pattern flip in July 2013 after a lengthy cold period of northern blocking, we then saw the stormiest winter on record.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a major cold flip early in the new year after all this exceptionally mild wet stuff... wouldn't be surprised at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To me its like we are at an "all bets are off" point in regards to weather. Seems like anything can happen now.

Edited by March Blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting MJO forecasts. If we can get phase 6 or 7 well amplified then things could be interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7 December 2015 at 10:27 PM, damianslaw said:

Might sound rather simplistic, but we often see our weather balance itself out, notably cold/hot periods cancelling each other out, notably wet/dry periods cancelling each other out.

The cold of Dec 2010 being quite a good case in point, things turned very mild in Feb lasting through the spring.

The dry winter of 2011/2012 and March followed by record wetness in spring and summer.

The pattern flip in July 2013 after a lengthy cold period of northern blocking, we then saw the stormiest winter on record.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a major cold flip early in the new year after all this exceptionally mild wet stuff... wouldn't be surprised at all.

We had 6 consecutive months that were below average, how do you know the current very mild spell isn't attempting to balance this out? 

This is the issue I have with this, it always applied to something current then applied futuristically and never looked at respectively.

You mentioned the wetness of 2012 after March, the thing is that was not a balance out, the wetness exceeded the dryness comfortably, there was no nett balance here. February 2011 did not balance out December 2010, there was still a nett -ve effect for that winter. 

You said the pattern flipped after June 2013 and we had months of overall mild weather, true. Problem is that February 2011 to January 2012 was overall exceptionally mild despite the cool summer, so how do we know that April 2012 to June 2013 was balancing this out? 

And the cool summer of 2011 wasn't balancing out spring 2011?

Mother nature is not an auditor, she will do what she will do. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe the 2nd half of winter will bring something colder? in the meantime high ground in Scotland remains your best bet to see some snow

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Snow warnings out for Saturday

Issued at: 1131 on Thu 10 Dec 2015

Valid from: 1200 on Sat 12 Dec 2015

Valid to: 2350 on Sat 12 Dec 2015

Rain is likely to spread from the southwest during Saturday. There is a low likelihood of this being sufficiently heavy and prolonged as to lead to some flooding of properties and parts of communities, as well as some travel disruption. However, any impacts are not expected to be as widespread or severe as those observed last weekend. In addition, there is also the potential for the rain to turn to snow and accumulate - mostly likely, but not exclusively, on high ground. Much uncertainty surrounds Saturday's weather, but there is the potential for disruption from both rain and snow. This alert will be kept under review and updated as necessary.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

An area of low pressure, associated with a sharp north-south temperature contrast, is expected to move eastwards somewhere across central Britain on Saturday. This has the potential to produce 20 to 40 mm rainfall quite widely. Given saturated ground, this could lead to some flooding. However, as the associated precipitation encounters colder air across northern England, it may turn to snow. This is most likely towards the north of the yellow area and on high ground, with 5 to 10 cm potentially accumulating above around 200 m. Whilst this would reduce the risk of flooding, it may lead to some travel disruption, especially where flooded roads have been closed and more minor routes are in greater use. This development is associated with a high degree of uncertainty, especially regarding the track and timing of the depression, and this alert will be kept under review.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449878400®ionName=uk

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We could be in for something rather special this year. And, speaking as a lover of extremes of temperature, will an anomalously warm winter be any less exciting than an anomalously cold one?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

We could be in for something rather special this year. And, speaking as a lover of extremes of temperature, will an anomalously warm winter be any less exciting than an anomalously cold one?

 Does it need saying? :bad:

Absoloutely vile this winter would turn out if it is a similar fashion to this balmy early December.

I have a strong distaste for mild weather in winter it seems like wasted time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't get me wrong, peeps; I love snow as much as any of you. But when snow's not on the menu, 16C is surely better than 8C??:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Don't get me wrong, peeps; I love snow as much as any of you. But when snow's not on the menu, 16C is surely better than 8C??:D

It's better when it should happen. Mid February 1998 may have been remarkable but gawd did we pay for it with mid April 1998 and that Easter.  I would swap the two in an instance.

Easter is late March next year by the way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

It's better when it should happen. Mid February 1998 may have been remarkable but gawd did we pay for it with mid April 1998 and that Easter.  I would swap the two in an instance.

Easter is late March next year by the way.

Oddly enough, so was 1975 - after arguably the last time December was as ridiculously warm as this? It snowed!:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Don't get me wrong, peeps; I love snow as much as any of you. But when snow's not on the menu, 16C is surely better than 8C??:D

fully agree with that!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a good chance of the warmest December on record being threatened.  In the Central England Temperature zone the previous warmest was 8.1C, in 1934 and 1974.  If I remember rightly, 1934 was warmer relative to normal in the north, 1974 warmer in the south, and there was a bit of snow for some northern areas in the second week of December 1974.

The CET for the first third of December looks like coming in at over 10C- even warmer than November had been!

Edited by Thundery wintry showers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Don't get me wrong, peeps; I love snow as much as any of you. But when snow's not on the menu, 16C is surely better than 8C??:D

I strongly disagree. There should be a clear distinction between the seasons. At least 8C feels like December.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, solarcycle said:

I strongly disagree. There should be a clear distinction between the seasons. At least 8C feels like December.

At least 16-17C in December gives a feel of alternating autumn and summer, rather than the 5-6 month autumns the south has endured since 13/14.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To bring back some optimism, here are some charts from January 1998:

archives-1998-1-19-12-0.png

archives-1998-1-25-12-0.png

archives-1998-1-31-12-0.png

All is not lost. December 1997 was also cold during the opening days and midmonth. It would be quite incredible if we had no cold before Christmas/New Year. Even December 2013 featured cold zonality a few times in the final third.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...