Winter 2015/16.

[Lake District Blizzards]

Absolutely horrific start to Winter here, can only think December 2013 was anything as bad / worse

looks very similar tbh constant gales and storms - completely mild and frost free

in fact worse this year are the minimum temperatures - barely getting below 10c on multiple nights

[Hocus Pocus]

23 minutes ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

Absolutely horrific start to Winter here, can only think December 2013 was anything as bad / worse

looks very similar tbh constant gales and storms - completely mild and frost free

in fact worse this year are the minimum temperatures - barely getting below 10c on multiple nights

Yes, four days into winter and I can't see an end  in  sight. 

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

Absolutely horrific start to Winter here, can only think December 2013 was anything as bad / worse

looks very similar tbh constant gales and storms - completely mild and frost free

in fact worse this year are the minimum temperatures - barely getting below 10c on multiple nights

 

 

Yes a miserable start to winter 15/16 if you like cold dry sunny weather, but its what we normally expect at this time of year. Not perhaps to such degree of wetness, mildness and dullness, but the start of winter is often an atlantic wet fest.

 

We need some perspective, it is exceptionally early days, winter rarely bites until around Christmas. Winter 13/14 was a one -off, and despite the immediate outlook looking a carbon copy of that one, I would be highly surprised if we see it continue in similar vein throughout.

 

[MP-R]

If people want to see what a typical December is like, 2014 isn't far off the mark - Atlantic weather at least two thirds of the time, predominantly cool to cold but never exceptionally so, a few milder days thrown in and a cold, frosty spell in the latter third of the month.

Atlantic weather to the extent of 2013 is certainly not the norm, and 2009 or 2010 isn't either. Last December was ok in my book - certainly a lot fresher and more interesting than this one so far.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Could parts of the country be close to this time two years ago in terms of rainfall?  Cumbria seems to be in a bad way this evening, and the latest GFS shows no nd to extremely wet, mild SWly conditions, with a short-lived drier spell nexct weekend, apparently, as respite.

[March Blizzard]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Could parts of the country be close to this time two years ago in terms of rainfall?  Cumbria seems to be in a bad way this evening, and the latest GFS shows no nd to extremely wet, mild SWly conditions, with a short-lived drier spell nexct weekend, apparently, as respite.

I'd imagine many places have surpassed it. If in remember correctly, it was more anomalously wet in the South then, so less* rain caused more problems in the form of flooding etc in places that don't normally see that much rain.

This time round, however, it's the normally wet NW England, Wales and W Scotland that are anomalously wet, so you'd think these places have seen more rain at this point than the south did in 2013/14.

 

*But still quite a bit!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts

 

 

 

Edited December 5, 2015 by March Blizzard

[cheese]

3 hours ago, MP-R said:

If people want to see what a typical December is like, 2014 isn't far off the mark - Atlantic weather at least two thirds of the time, predominantly cool to cold but never exceptionally so, a few milder days thrown in and a cold, frosty spell in the latter third of the month.

Atlantic weather to the extent of 2013 is certainly not the norm, and 2009 or 2010 isn't either. Last December was ok in my book - certainly a lot fresher and more interesting than this one so far.

I'm getting slightly irked by people saying this is perfectly normal for the time of year.. it isn't. December 2014 is actually a good example of a typical December like you say.. we had 13 nights below freezing, 7 days above 10C, a minor snowfall on Boxing Day with highs of around 2-3C but most days falling around 6-9C. That is closer to typical.. but still marginally warmer than average.

Edited December 5, 2015 by cheese

[Daniel*]

First and foremost it is simply too early to say this is not typical for the month an unsettled spell is fairly normal to the extent Western Scotland and the NW England is seeing no! to me this month looks fairly average but the extremely mild temperatures we're seeing are uncanny to mid Autumn. Much of this month is yet to unravel.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I would class '13-'14 as an average winter, as it's becoming more frequent as the years go on. look at this Dec for the north? Dec especially is dominated by gales and raging Atlantic

Every Dec in the 2000's except 2010 has seen flooding at Radford Bank field, minor flood but always Dec, flooded this Dec due to shocker rain late Nov

 

[cheese]

Indeed. Very average. pretty much what I'd expect.. well, except for the sunshine - very sunny winter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I'm sorry but that's rediculous! No way can the wettest winter ever recorded by considered an "average winter"! Our winters may have displayed a slight warming trend over the last few decades, but that is just ludicrous.

 

Not the wettest necessarily, but I class an average Dec as full on zonality from start to finish, as I do with Jan, only Jan, PM air becomes a bit more frequent bringing snow at times to the north

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

Not the wettest necessarily, but I class an average Dec as full on zonality from start to finish, as I do with Jan, only Jan, PM air becomes a bit more frequent bringing snow at times to the north

No way 2013-14 was an average winter. Manchester Winter Index of 7, even 1988-89 beats this comfortably. 

[cheese]

19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

Not the wettest necessarily, but I class an average Dec as full on zonality from start to finish, as I do with Jan, only Jan, PM air becomes a bit more frequent bringing snow at times to the north

You are wrong though, as a typical December for most of England has 2-4 days of lying snow. Jan and Feb have 2-4 each. Even further south around London has 1-2 days of lying snow.

Edited December 5, 2015 by cheese

[Thundery wintry showers]

For temperatures and snow I'd say that 2014/15 was close to average from the Midlands northwards, but below average in the south.  1993/94 and 2000/01 were close to average for temperatures and snow over most of England and Wales, though both winters were cold and snowy over most of Scotland and some parts of northern England.  Of course all three were quite anomalous for sunshine and/or rainfall, showing that the more variables you cover, the harder it is to find examples of "an average month".

I recall that January-October 2015 were statistically very "normal" over most parts of the UK, though with an enhanced NW-SE split and above-average sunshine in the east, but November and December look like pushing the year towards the warm and wet category.  This weather is certainly not normal for the time of year, though not that unusual, it is certainly milder, cloudier, wetter and windier than usual.

Edited December 5, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[MP-R]

3 hours ago, cheese said:

I'm getting slightly irked by people saying this is perfectly normal for the time of year.. it isn't. December 2014 is actually a good example of a typical December like you say.. we had 13 nights below freezing, 7 days above 10C, a minor snowfall on Boxing Day with highs of around 2-3C but most days falling around 6-9C. That is closer to typical.. but still marginally warmer than average.

With you on that one, those culprits are talking out of their rear-ends tbh. One just has to look at climate averages to see that this current weather is not the norm lol.

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I would class '13-'14 as an average winter, as it's becoming more frequent as the years go on. look at this Dec for the north? Dec especially is dominated by gales and raging Atlantic

 

Lmao, there's always one...

[Stormyking]

2013-2014 Winter was anything but Average, it had its own Uniqueness, okay the TEMPERATURES would probably work out around average or just above, but as for the rest, it was just storm after storm after storm, with winds reaching 80- 100mph in quite a few places on various occasions, including the South which is  rare to get throughout the winter! Obviously it is a bit different in the North And North West as they get countless times with very storm weather, but for the whole country, I wouldn't class it average at all.

 

As for this Winter, I think as December goes, I think we may get a few surprises, and I think this will be around Christmas time and still think February will be our Month

Edited December 5, 2015 by Stormyking

[Mildcarlisle]

And although I have had four days of falling snow in Galashiels,I fully subscribe to the thought patterns of many herein,that we are wishing for a deviation from normal weather patterns to deliver protracted cold.(Or at least some cold synoptics).Asto next weekend,the models are showing a possible cooling.If this comes to fruition,again,a transient affair, it will be Scotland and highest elevations of northern England which will experience snowfall.I am searching for the classic block whilst still enjoying the meteorological here and now.I would like to know,what  tangible dynamics created the pre-winter 2010 synoptics that we can be reasonably informed of these occurring in the future likes.

[damianslaw]

An average winter sees early-mid December dominated by the atlantic and a generally mild theme predominating. If we take what we have now then yes we are seeing an average start in this respect. However, granted it is far from average in terms of temperatures and rainfall and dullness. The average is simply a mean.. deviations are expected from one extreme to another. What feels a little unprecedented and surprising about the current start to  winter at least here, is how extreme it is in terms of mild and dull very wet weather - coming on the back of the extreme winter of 13/14 and November of 2009.. to see such weather occurring in such a short space of time is I think highly unusual.

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's Ok, December 2015 will be forgiven when we go from wet to white later on in the month

[northwestsnow]

Gawd I hope your right this perpetual autumn is really starting to get to me

[Nick L]

16 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I would class '13-'14 as an average winter, as it's becoming more frequent as the years go on. look at this Dec for the north? Dec especially is dominated by gales and raging Atlantic

Every Dec in the 2000's except 2010 has seen flooding at Radford Bank field, minor flood but always Dec, flooded this Dec due to shocker rain late Nov

 

13-14 average?!

[Rich_Clements]

Anyone remember the last time the poor people of Cumbria got a good soaking, and what happened after? its a few weeks later this time.

[Weather-history]

21 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I would class '13-'14 as an average winter, as it's becoming more frequent as the years go on. look at this Dec for the north? Dec especially is dominated by gales and raging Atlantic

Every Dec in the 2000's except 2010 has seen flooding at Radford Bank field, minor flood but always Dec, flooded this Dec due to shocker rain late Nov

 

Better than yesterday 

 

[Summer Sun]

Its over 16c now in Wales remarkable temps around today for is supposed to be 'winter'

 

 

[IanR]

58 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Its over 16c now in Wales remarkable temps around today for is supposed to be 'winter'

 

 

and in 14 days time the nights will slowly get lighter