Winter 2015/16.

[keithlucky]

A new winter forecast using "Nature"  says a long cold winter ahead https://t.co/0qhpt2X6et

Edited November 17, 2015 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

Well if Buck House consults him he must be mad!

[Captain Shortwave]

Seriously though, CFS is awful.

Actually the CFS has improved over recent years, in fact its performance last winter wasn't too bad and was the best long ranger in predicting the summer just gone with hot weather over Europe and near normal temperatures over the UK, this against the majority of other models which went for a cool and wet summer.

That said I wouldn't put much faith in long range models this winter given some big conflicting signals which put us in uncharted territory pattern wise.

[Lynxus]

A new winter forecast using "Nature"  says a long cold winter ahead https://t.co/0qhpt2X6et

 

That's so strange? There are sheep round here that look like they have been shaved or such, its so short. Maybe its gonna be 30c in dec?

[damianslaw]

As a few others have commented, the forum seems unusually quiet so far this season.. normally by now we see lots of activity with regard to speculation for the winter ahead - its less than 2 weeks away yet it feels many are in slumber land.. perhaps the unusual warmth of late is messing with people's inner rhythms so to speak and fooling people into a false sense of an eternal autumnal state.

 

I'm hoping to see a few winter forecasts posted shortly. I've hardly seen any this year.. what is happening???

[weathergeek]

People have been so burnt in recent years so are resting on their laurels.....that's usually when a big surprise will come from nowhere!!!! (Is my hoping anyway,lol!).

Not even a load of ramping about this weekend happening....everyone just like, yeh yeh yeh..... let's see if they get caught out?!x

[Helzmc]

I feel alot of uncertanty regarding this winter...and last years good runs that went belly up is alsways gonna be in the backs of minds.. exciting times ahead imo but im a bottom grade novis at this.

[Cheshire Freeze]

As a few others have commented, the forum seems unusually quiet so far this season.. normally by now we see lots of activity with regard to speculation for the winter ahead - its less than 2 weeks away yet it feels many are in slumber land.. perhaps the unusual warmth of late is messing with people's inner rhythms so to speak and fooling people into a false sense of an eternal autumnal state.

 

I'm hoping to see a few winter forecasts posted shortly. I've hardly seen any this year.. what is happening???

 

I'll tell you this, people have held off with the winter forecasts because you could literally flip a coin at the minute as to which route we head down. Up until a week or two ago many people would have had their forecasts sewn up- Mild, wet start and potentially colder later in winter. However, given recent events both tropospherically and stratospherically (potentially), I would bet a lot of forecasts are being amended to acknowledge what could happen instead.

[Helzmc]

Thats exactly it.

[Helzmc]

Look very similar to the untrailed eye apart from the sea temp ... intresting winter to be following this year.

Edited November 18, 2015 by Helzmc

[smith25]

What's going on thus year????... We have a cold shot in about 3 more days but hardly anyone's talking about it. Where is everybody!.

[Timmytour]

November started off exceptionally mild

Then it got wet and stormy

That was 1946 I was referring to.

Just saying... <fingers crossed> 

[smith25]

November started off exceptionally mild

Then it got wet and stormy

That was 1946 I was referring to.

Just saying... <fingers crossed> 

That's more like it! A good old winter ramp.

[Helzmc]

As did 2010 if memory serves me...

[Deep Snow please]

There's been floods as well, which I'm pretty sure there was in 2010.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

November started off exceptionally mild

Then it got wet and stormy

That was 1946 I was referring to.

Just saying... <fingers crossed> 

 

Like your thinking there TimmyTour     

[iceman1991]

Looks like j roger smith going for cold weather end jan early feb with possibly heavey snow fingers crossed guys hes preety much on the money with his predictions

[Karl83]

Looks like j roger smith going for cold weather end jan early feb with possibly heavey snow fingers crossed guys hes preety much on the money with his predictions

 

Very specific - Although he could be lucky and get it right!

Edited November 18, 2015 by Karl83

[Helzmc]

There's been floods as well, which I'm pretty sure there was in 2010.

Thats right...an we jad a bad storm a couple of days before hand also.

[Singularity]

Just posted this under the ENSO thread, with respect to the possibility of the currently Full-Basin or Hybrid El Nino mutating into a Central Pacific (CP) El Nino by around midwinter, as a fair bit of long range model guidance has been suggesting lately. In brackets, I've added explanations for the technical terms:

 

 

I believe the atmosphere has been racing along 'ahead of schedule' in terms of response to the current strong El Nino event, in that we've seen a strong displacement east of high pressure from The Azores to Europe before the winter season has even got underway, followed by stratospheric wave breaking (anomalously warm air entering the stratosphere and interfering with the usual counter-clockwise circulation that wants to keep cold air trapped in the Arctic) along the typical El Nino path (i.e. via typical surface weather anomalies for a strong El Nino Nov-Jan period) but sooner than the analogue years seemed to suggest (to my eyes, at least). The trouble is, that pathway to stratospheric vortex disruption (the interfering mentioned earlier) later in the season looks at great risk of being derailed by misbehaving tropical convection in the near future, as it becomes unusually active across a wide stretch of the Indian Ocean in particular (rarely seen during strong El Nino conditions). Because of this, I am starting to get the feeling that a transitory CP El Nino type atmospheric response (change in weather patterns that favours high pressure NW of the UK with cold air moving south across our lands) may be our greatest card when playing for an extended cold, snowy period of weather this winter.

 

Please, oh mighty El Nino, metamorphose into a CP event and save us from chasing toppling mid-Atlantic ridges that tease but seldom deliver for the snow-starved southerners!    

[lassie23]

People have been so burnt in recent years so are resting on their laurels.....that's usually when a big surprise will come from nowhere!!!! (Is my hoping anyway,lol!).

Not even a load of ramping about this weekend happening....everyone just like, yeh yeh yeh..... let's see if they get caught out?!x

I'll stick my neck out and prepare  to get burnt to a cider. I sense a 1962/1963 style winter is brewing, sure it will be cold at the weekend, then it will go cool, mild, cool, mild right up to the last week before Christmas..........and then BAM! Beware of the Siberian high and prepare to get SNOWED in this Christmas. :cold: Ramp over and MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'll think I'll put this in here for now as it isn't a winter forecast but a winter taster.  RJS and I have spoke and generally agreed that the most likely chance of cold blocking bringing the coldest part of winter is Feb.  We discussed Dec and agreed along the lines of the early post RJS put out.  However, I did discuss that I don't know what part this cold Atlantic would play and may bring some early interest into play but wanted to see how November panned out.  Well Nov has and is going along the lines I suggested and we are now experiencing the change to colder, stormier conditions with snow for some especially during the last 3rd through pM air and not blocking.  There was a time when the models started to show some very cold options which then backed away to milder and now to fairly cold. 

Ok for rest of Nov - pM air to be dominant with at times pretty potent pM blast at end of month as trough is held in place due to strong Siberain HP which is extended to Finland producing a similar set up to following graph which I'm ok with as a general example.

 

 

Now for December - A MONTH of  contrasts but I think producing some potent cold sandwiched between less cold maybe mild episodes

 

 

- WEEK 1 - I think we'll experiencing very cold pM air for first week with strong W / NW / N flow continuing the theme with snow well in the mix but any that falls on low ground won't be sustained compared to hills and mountains of ALL UK.  End of week I think HP will build across southern UK and I'm, ok with type of set up shown below.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/2015112100/gfs-0-348.png?0

 

 

 

This likely to bring a N/S split with cyclonic flow in Scotland and N Ireland and HP the south.  Could be frosty at night for the south but this period is dependent on the airmass it brings with it, however, I don't think it will be very cold air but more average to a tad mild.  Change afoot as we head to end of period ie around 10-14th, as HP builds to our West.

 

I think our coldest period will then develop- rather than break this down to a week I think the theme will take us up to Christmas.  The  general theme is HP to our W ridging north and trough to our E/eSE.  A very cold feed from N quadrant which at times could see winds veer to NE and or even E at times.  This suggests N and E areas will experience most wintry conditions but not necessarily the coldest as very harsh frost likely in W and NW  and Ireland.  Breakdown to Atlantic cyclonic conditions as we go through Christmas towards New year hence I'm suggesting a White Xmas for good portion of us.

I'll end with my New Year storm....especially for Northern regions

 

BFTP

Edited November 26, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Polar Maritime]

Tend to agree with that Fred, And certainly a pattern showing strongly in the Models as we head into December re-deep stormy N/W shots turning Northerly at times. A good old fashioned 80's set-up ☺

Edited November 21, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Snowyowl9]

Much like December 1995 I wonder,classic battleground here between south and north.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119951218.gif

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Be nice if he HP period I suggest moves across like the GFS 12z suggests rather than my further south option.  That would make it very interesting re cold

 

BFTP