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Paul

Winter 2015/16.

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Just weeks to go until the start of winter 2015/16, so a fresh thread to take us through to that point. 

 

Please discuss your views, hopes and opinions on the upcoming winter, we've a new thread now running for chatting about winter's past:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84396-past-winters-discussion/

 

There is also the Winter area on the site with a range of winter related forecasts, charts and wintry related features. 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-home;sess=

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I think that all the signs point to a late winter a la after the new year.

Forget anything meaningful till Jan/Feb, apart from odd short snaps if we are lucky.

 

Also feel that we could get a real deep cold blast, when it does come.

The biggest problem could be that it stays cold into early springtime.

This is based on nothing more than my views and mainly for this part of the UK.

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I'll firm up my thoughts towards the end of November, but along with many forecasts I doubt we will see any meaningful snow this side of New Year, but this certainly doesn't discount episodes of quite chilly weather with even the odd shot of decent cold from a N/NW sector. There are a number of factors that favour more notable cold in the latter part of the winter, early winter could be a particularly wet stormy topsy turvy spell with alternating tropical and polar maritime airstreams - 'lively' being the operative word.

 

My hopes are always for a cold snowy Christmas period, however, the last 4 now have in the main been stormy wet and mild/very mild affairs.. even something more average would do.. I love winter walking, at that time of year, but the last 4 years have been a near write off in this sense.

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Thanks for 'seasonlising' the discussions, it does make it easier to pop in and pop out of areas of interest.

In line with what appears to be a growing majority, it looks like a umbrella Christmas this year, especially down here on the coast, where winter takes it's longest to approach and makes it's quickest exit.

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Would be nice to see a cold xmas... could be some potential for that... followed by a cold Jan and Feb...

 

We can hope eh? ;-0

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I think we're in for some nice surprises in the coming 6 weeks or so. Haven't seen such synoptic charts popping up at the moment for a while with numerous chances of Northerly outbreaks in particular..

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Are we able to get Jamstec offer of winter for Europe?. I see Big Joe has posted Jamstec forecast on the States

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For the 6th month in a row JAMSTEC once again shows below average surface air temp anomalies for the UK and Ireland

 

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1nov2015.gif

 

Precipitation looks fairly average, though Scotland, Northern Ireland and the ROI looks slightly below average

 

tprep.glob.DJF2016.1nov2015.gif

 

This is a big test for JAMSTEC it has consistently shown below average anomalies for this coming winter for 6 months now

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Winter has arrived in the Highlands :) 

 

lairig-ghru.jpeg

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Starting to feel a bit like winter up here, or late autumn at least. Need to keep one eye on the 20th, 21st and 22nd November I think - best chance of any prolonged cold for a while.

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Finland may have been very warm days ago.

However in the Arctic Circle winter has arrived, everything is nicely white at Rovaniemi.

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Here is Gavin Patridge's six month look ahead for this month, covering the whole of winter and early spring.

 

I'll warn you now: if you want a cold winter, I really suggest you don't watch this! It's a horror-show, especially January.

 

As Gavin always states it's just for fun, but it will change and guess what ? it already has!

CFSv2 Anomalies today is showing January cold, February cold, march very cold....flip flop model  :D

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I think for the sanity of many on here, it would probably be a good idea for those charts to change a bit, or at least be completely wrong! :D

They usually are. Thank goodness! :D

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I think for the sanity of many on here, it would probably be a good idea for those charts to change a bit, or at least be completely wrong! :D

 

Just as well for me that I can barely understand a word he says! :D:oops:

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There is talk (BBC Countryfile weather report) of the first taste of winter weather (for some) come the end of the week and yet there is nobody on here! Where is everyone? Can't believe how quiet it is...  :sorry:

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There is talk (BBC Countryfile weather report) of the first taste of winter weather (for some) come the end of the week and yet there is nobody on here! Where is everyone? Can't believe how quiet it is...  :sorry:

The mod thread is busier than of late, though thought it would be a bit busier considering the impending cold snap/spell..

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Too many people have had their fingers burnt in the past couple of years. I think there is a distinct feeling of 'stay calm' around. 

 

I am usually reading FI charts like a hawk by early October and looking for any synoptic signs of cold. 

 

This year I am much more relaxed, enjoying the Snow and Ice in Northern Hemisphere like I always do and waiting to see what might happen!

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WeatherWeb.net now suggesting that the long-range CFS is showing a screaming Jet for the whole of the winter.  On top of that, they're playing-down this coming weekend as well, away from the Scottish and Welsh mountains and the northern Pennines:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_tI808TATo

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WeatherWeb.net now suggesting that the long-range CFS is showing a screaming Jet for the whole of the winter.  On top of that, they're playing-down this coming weekend as well, away from the Scottish and Welsh mountains and the northern Pennines: 

CFS is hardly the most reliable model. No reputable forecaster would set much faith in it.

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There's been a lot of volcanic activity in Mexico this year including some very recent significant eruptions.

On a quick glance....it seems as if each year with significant Mexican volcanic activity brings us at least one if not two very cold months in the ensuing winter...

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