Atlantic Storm #1 Abigail

[Jo Farrow]

People are confused already as the news papers said it was last weekend. Just thinking all the things that could go wrong. They name one too early and it doesn't develop as expected. They don't bother naming one and the storm on the day turns much stronger than expected. The same sceniro but they named the following depression so they're out of sequence if they apply a name retrospectively. All fun.

I think it is a pilot test scheme, so everyone is seeing how it goes. It's early days.  Having Kate  (hurricane) and Katie (Storm) in the same potential year isn't ideal. Any scheme involving weather forecasting will never go quite to plan. 

[heccygabber]

meto going for 50mph gusts here and they've got a yellow warning out lol?

Edited November 11, 2015 by heccygabber

[Hairy Celt]

I'm wondering if the next storm will be called Bawbag... perhaps something more family-friendly like Bellows?  Can I have the job of making up the names please?

[Jo Farrow]

I'm wondering if the next storm will be called Bawbag... perhaps something more family-friendly like Bellows?  Can I have the job of making up the names please?

you missed the boat, (for this year) It was an open invitation #nameourstorms

[Liam J]

I'm wondering if the next storm will be called Bawbag... perhaps something more family-friendly like Bellows?  Can I have the job of making up the names please?

The next one will be called Barney... Bawbag is history, although it hasn't actually been used as an official name

 

 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/news/article/news/releases/archive/2015/Name-our-storms-list

[Jo Farrow]

meto going for 50mph gusts here and they've got a yellow warning out lol?

Would you expect something different?

[Cookie]

Jo you reckon 90 here? We tend to add 10 mph on to what everyone says

[Liam J]

GFS 18z wind gusts from Storm Abigail, windy through the Irish sea for a time in the afternoon but 70-80mph gusts for the far NW during Thursday evening... Looks like you'll be getting the strongest winds tomorrow, Cookie! 

 

 

 

 

[Jo Farrow]

Jo you reckon 90 here? We tend to add 10 mph on to what everyone says

I thought the Amber warning did say "perhaps 90mph" for Western Isles, model runs keep moving about a bit. I've been to the Butt of Lewis on an ordinary (windy) day

[Cookie]

Yup I've noticed the shifts. Quite a bit of thunder and lightning here already

[Hairy Celt]

you missed the boat, (for this year) It was an open invitation #nameourstorms

 

How was the invitation publicised?

[heccygabber]

Would you expect something different?

well they didn't issue a warning for the last storms we had

[Liam J]

Some very high seas could be generated by Abigail to the far north west, 11-12m.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Cookie]

How was the invitation publicised?

Yes widely

[mistyqueen]

Thanks for posting all the charts and info here. I for one appreciate it. Looks like I'll be getting a fair skelp o' the wind later, but not nearly so badly as Cookie will! take care all you folks out on the Western Isles! Get those hatches battened down and make sure you have plenty of batteries and candles to hand!

[Liam J]

Looking at the 00z NetW-SR, the first batch of windy weather from Abigail will be felt in during early afternoon bringing strong to gale force southerly winds across Ireland, W Scotland and through the Irish Sea, gusts around 50-60mph likely for a time, then moving out into the North Sea by evening affecting NE England & E Scotland

 

 

Then we look back to the NW as gale to severe gale force SW'ly winds begin to develop with gusts of 60-70mph for the western mainland & the Islands, roughly from Mull northwards. 

 

 

As we move into the small hours of Friday the strongest winds begin to pull north with a further increase in the far NW, so across Lewis & far N/NW of the mainland gusts reaching 70-80mph for a good few hours but these will begin to moderate as we move towards dawn over the mainland, by this time the strongest winds will likely be affecting the N Isles. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Liam J]

Current surface analysis is showing Abigail down to 984mb as of 8am.

 

 

 

[Liam J]

Wind whipping up over Ireland, gale/severe gale southerly winds on the coastal fringes, Belmullet S'ly 48mph gust 63mph http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Cookie]

Winds increasing here already

[knocker]

0900

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=0.04,50.85,1350

[Liam J]

Belmullet recorded a gust to 70mph on the latest update - http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Liam J]

A couple of satellite images of Abigail, and she is now down to 980mb. 

 

 

Updated warnings from the Met Office.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447286400

Edited November 12, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Jo Farrow]

How was the invitation publicised?

I wrote a blog about it in Sept, there are updates at the top but the end section outlines what happened http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6867;sess=

I think they'll do it again next year , if this test year is deemed successful

[Jo Farrow]

11 o'clock Met Office update  

strongest swathe of winds focused a little further north

[Liam J]

Abigail's cold front making inroads into the far west with heavy rainfall, some lightning strikes & severe southerly gales... http://www.xcweather.co.uk/