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DisruptiveGust

Atlantic Storm #1 Abigail

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INCOMING... 

 

So, we have our first named storm of the autumn & winter season 2015/16, she is called Abigail and is she expected to affect the NW of the UK later on Thursday and on into Friday, bringing windy weather for much of Northern Britain.

 

Scotland will be closer to the core of Abigail and will bear the brunt with severe gales perhaps storm force winds for parts of Scotland with potential gusts of 70mph or more, possibly up to 80mph for the Western Isles & exposed parts of NW Scotland.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/storm-Abigail?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weather_StormAbigail

 

 

 

The Met Office has named the first storm as part of the Name Our Storms project. It will be called Abigail which is the first name on the list of storms chosen by the public. Storm Abigail which will bring strong winds across the far north of the UK on Thursday evening into Friday has the potential to cause some disruption in these areas as a deep low pressure system crosses to the north of the UK.
 The northwest and north of Scotland are likely to see severe southwesterly gales later on Thursday with strong winds extending across the Northern Isles into Friday morning. Gusts of 60-70 mph are likely with the possibility of some gusts exceeding 80mph in exposed locations. Winds will begin to ease across the Western Isles and the mainland on Friday morning and across the Northern Isles on Friday afternoon.

 

12z GFS has Abigail's central pressure down to around 965mb.

 

post-9615-0-05367200-1447182861_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-05962900-1447182867_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-17691200-1447182873_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-83508600-1447182880_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-78101600-1447182888_thumb.pn

 

Windy for much of Northern UK & across Ireland during Thursday afternoon with the core of strongest winds affecting the Isles & NW Scotland during Thursday evening onwards, gusts potentially around 80mph. 

 

post-9615-0-33173800-1447182902_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-89935200-1447182908_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-65993300-1447182915_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-48518300-1447182921_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-59802900-1447182927_thumb.pn

 

Please use this thread to discuss all things relevant to incoming Storm Abigail. 

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Made up this quick map will make another clearer one tomorrow. It shows the top gusts predicted by the Met Office for each area of the UK. I used the GFS model gusts for Ireland,

 

post-6686-0-53319800-1447187579_thumb.pn

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A closer look at the forecast wind gust map for NW Scotland & Western Isles from the Met Office, showing gusts possibly as high as 75-85mph for some locations in the far west. 

 

post-9615-0-64131400-1447189913_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-93213100-1447189917_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

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A closer look at the forecast wind gust map for NW Scotland & Western Isles from the Met Office, showing gusts possibly as high as 75-85mph for some locations in the far west. 

 

attachicon.gifmet1.PNGattachicon.gifmet2.PNG

some boxers on under the kilt looking at them wind speeds :0..

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A closer look at the forecast wind gust map for NW Scotland & Western Isles from the Met Office, showing gusts possibly as high as 75-85mph for some locations in the far west. 

 

attachicon.gifmet1.PNGattachicon.gifmet2.PNG

 

Typical their map just updates after I posted  :laugh:

 

Looking at the GFS in the same area the gusts are about the same at the 75 to 85 mph range.

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Still looking at, briefly, 60-70kts gusts Hebrides and far north,I feel. Very fine margins

 

post-12275-0-51141500-1447220473_thumb.p

post-12275-0-86095300-1447220483_thumb.g

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Abigail is now within range of the NetWx-SR model which runs at 4km resolution out to 48hrs 

 

Strong to gale force southerly winds spreading in from the west during Thursday afternoon over Ireland, western Scotland and western fringes of England bringing gusts of 50-60mph for a time. During the evening into the overnight period the strongest winds will be focussed over NW Scotland with gusts around 80mph+ moving towards the Outer Hebrides.

 

Will have to wait for the 06Z update that will take us into the early hours of Friday

 

post-9615-0-00216300-1447226059_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-76215400-1447226075_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-56315700-1447226082_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-52348200-1447226089_thumb.pn

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Rainfall associated with Abigail. 

 

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Looks like the GFS 06z has moved it further out West. Two gust charts below at 3am one the 00z and the other 06z,

 

post-6686-0-45557900-1447237520_thumb.pn post-6686-0-83471500-1447237520_thumb.pn

 

Its still just over 40 hours away and usually with these type of storms the exact track it will take and where the worst winds will be usually is fully decided until its about 24 hours away.

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Latest from Jo on 'Abigail'

 

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Yeah the 6Z is going for a lot less stormy

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NetWx-SR 6Z now has the strongest winds further west and missing NW Scotland, obviously the hi-res models the Met Office are using show the winds impacting the NW hence the upgrade to an amber warning. 

 

post-9615-0-57679800-1447248843_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-83787000-1447248847_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-17174000-1447248854_thumb.pn

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Small margin for errors given how narrow the core of damaging winds is being modelled, perhaps it will be an near miss? Have to see what the 12z make of it and if they still want to keep the strongest wind field away from land... 

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Hopefully the 12z runs later will clear some confusion because we have HIRLAM, ECM and the Met Office showing very strong winds for the West and North of Scotland while the GFS and the NetWx-SR showing it to be a near miss for the far North West.

 

Latest wind speed gusts from the Met office showing 70 to 80 mph gusts for most places in the warning zone with parts of the Western Isles reaching just over 90 mph,

 

post-6686-0-21437400-1447250979_thumb.pn post-6686-0-72610400-1447250979_thumb.pn

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Not sure about this ICON model and who operates it but this chart would obviously bring storm force winds to N & NW Scotland. 

 

post-9615-0-58227000-1447252072_thumb.pn

 

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Not sure about this ICON model and who operates it but this chart would obviously bring storm force winds to N & NW Scotland. 

 

attachicon.gific1.png

 

ICON is the experimental icosahedral model fron the German DWD stable. Capable of very high-res zoom sections.

 

FWIW, Arpege 06Z (French hi-res model) also bringing in on a more southerly vector.

 

arpegeeur-0-42_gfn3.png  arpegeuk-11-41-0_enp4.png  arpegeuk-45-72-0_vhs3.png

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ICON is the experimental icosahedral model fron the German DWD stable. Capable of very high-res zoom sections.

 

FWIW, Arpege 06Z (French hi-res model) also bringing in on a more southerly vector.

 

arpegeeur-0-42_gfn3.png  arpegeuk-11-41-0_enp4.png  arpegeuk-45-72-0_vhs3.png

Thanks Nouska, strong winds much further south on the French model, even affecting Northern Ireland. 

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GFS 12z brings the strongest winds back for Western and Northern Scotland and more inline with the other models now.

 

Mean speeds from 6pm Thursday to 6am Friday showing 50 to 60 mph,

 

post-6686-0-76700400-1447256802_thumb.pn post-6686-0-25571400-1447256803_thumb.pn post-6686-0-76558600-1447256803_thumb.pn post-6686-0-30298700-1447256804_thumb.pn post-6686-0-75757100-1447256804_thumb.pn

 

Gusts still expected to be in the 70 to 80 mph range with a chance of 90 mph,

 

post-6686-0-06049900-1447256988_thumb.pn post-6686-0-83140800-1447256988_thumb.pn post-6686-0-57870200-1447256989_thumb.pn post-6686-0-04281100-1447256990_thumb.pn post-6686-0-54862500-1447256990_thumb.pn

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One or two breezy spells further south over the weekend as well and into next week.

One question if the storm stayed out west and didn't effect the UK would the name be dropped?

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You would assume not TP, as I think that would create a lot of confusion.

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People are confused already as the news papers said it was last weekend. Just thinking all the things that could go wrong. They name one too early and it doesn't develop as expected. They don't bother naming one and the storm on the day turns much stronger than expected. The same sceniro but they named the following depression so they're out of sequence if they apply a name retrospectively. All fun.

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