Community winter forecasts

[damianslaw]

Enjoyed reading the post above - another forecast based on an expectation of a SSW in Jan. Also like the suggestion of a northerly bang on time for Christmas. I remember 2004 which delivered a 2 day northerly Christmas day and Boxing Day...

I too believe our best chance of something colder first half of the winter is from a northerly flow.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 03/12/2015 at 0:01 PM, Suburban Streamer said:

Here's my forecast for 15/16.

Too long to post in here properly, here's the link

https://londonwx.wordpress.com/winter-1516/

An excellent read and forecast

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

On ‎28‎/‎11‎/‎2015 at 3:50 PM, damianslaw said:

Not sure why there is so much silence this year it seems.. hardly any members are posting winter forecasts. Do people think it is a done deal or something?

 

 

 

I sort of did one but composite charts disappear after a few hours so didn't post anything as even if it comes off, you wont gain credit without showing workings plus nearly every pro's would have come out the same with this big EL Nino as i always go for the safe option, i told my friends back in early Nov to expect mild mush until feb when it will become cold and snowy, i thought that's how Ed and Tony's forecast would have come out as well, its the first time ive ever disagreed with the Netweather forecast, not surprising considering all ive done is read the Strat/model threads in winter for the last 5 years , It has to be said the work that went into their forecast mesmerized  me so i have had my doubts, but happy with my (unofficial) one now from a forecasting POV but really want theirs to be accurate for Jan as it wouldn't take a massive deviation from where the ridges / troughs are in their Feb forecast to get a bitterly cold Feb as well, despite the fact that they went for well above average temps.

 

I think RJS / Blast could well take the accolade this year (another excellent piece of work).

[virtualsphere]

6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I sort of did one but composite charts disappear after a few hours so didn't post anything as even if it comes off, you wont gain credit without showing workings plus nearly every pro's would have come out the same with this big EL Nino as i always go for the safe option, i told my friends back in early Nov to expect mild mush until feb when it will become cold and snowy, i thought that's how Ed and Tony's forecast would have come out as well, its the first time ive ever disagreed with the Netweather forecast, not surprising considering all ive done is read the Strat/model threads in winter for the last 5 years , It has to be said the work that went into their forecast mesmerized  me so i have had my doubts, but happy with my (unofficial) one now from a forecasting POV but really want theirs to be accurate for Jan as it wouldn't take a massive deviation from where the ridges / troughs are in their Feb forecast to get a bitterly cold Feb as well, despite the fact that they went for well above average temps.

I think RJS / Blast could well take the accolade this year (another excellent piece of work).

Yes, based on the El Nino you could go either way with Feb.  Just looking at Feb 1983 & 1998 the surface pressure patterns in the NH are fairly similar, except in the vicinity of the UK which brought very different conditions to our shores. 

 

This is where the expertise of the NW forecast team, and also RJS / BFTP and all the other long range forecasters comes into its own - what other drivers will influence the pattern further into the winter, e.g. SSW, and how will these affect our part of the globe?  It's a good illustration of how difficult it is to try and predict the weather that far in advance, so credit is due to all who have a go.   Still all to play for later this winter, despite the El Nino.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, virtualsphere said:

Yes, based on the El Nino you could go either way with Feb.  Just looking at Feb 1983 & 1998 the surface pressure patterns in the NH are fairly similar, except in the vicinity of the UK which brought very different conditions to our shores. 

 

This is where the expertise of the NW forecast team, and also RJS / BFTP and all the other long range forecasters comes into its own - what other drivers will influence the pattern further into the winter, e.g. SSW, and how will these affect our part of the globe?  It's a good illustration of how difficult it is to try and predict the weather that far in advance, so credit is due to all who have a go.   Still all to play for later this winter, despite the El Nino.

Yes the one caveat I didn't mention was that timing has always been in question wrt pattern change, what I steadfastly believe is that although it could come anywhere between mid Jan to Early March, I believe its as certain as you can get, we will get a spell of way below average temps early next year, but if its in spring, that doesn't always float some people's boat.