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Just when many thought the Atlantic hurricane season would be getting to a close, a new tropical cyclone has developed over the Bahamas. The system has been designated as Tropical Depression 12, and will be named Kate if it turns into a tropical storm.

The forecast track from the NHC recurves the system gradually towards the northeast while the system strenghens slowly. In about 3 days, TD 12 will be absorbed by another low pressure area.

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Forecast track of TD 12 by NOAA.

Source:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/084006.shtml?5-daynl#contents

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Yup, we have Tropical Storm Kate, with winds of 40kts. Kate is a tiny tropical storm with a small central dense overcast. As Kate moves through the Bahamas, further intensification is expected as shear is expected to be low and waters warm. Kate is expected to peak at 55kts before merging with a large extratropical low to the north as Kate recurves to the northeast.

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Kate has strengthened more than predicted as it pulls away from the Bahamas. Winds are up to 60kts. Kate has a small but solid central dense overcast. Kate is expected to become a 70kt cat 1 hurricane before extratropical transition occurs.

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If she does make it to hurricane status, that will be another first for the record books .....in the Atlantic basin, no November hurricanes in strong El Nino years.

 

A rare occurrence in any Nino year .....  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3181

 

Tropical cyclones in the Atlantic: uncommon during El Niño Novembers
Kate is bucking the tide of El Niño by developing in November. Strong El Niño events typically bring the Atlantic season to an earlier-than-usual close, as the subtropical jet stream gets an increasing boost toward late autumn. If we look at
those years since 1950 in which the October-to-December Niño3.4 index was in an El Niño state (at least +0.5°C), only about one in three of those years has produced a named storm in November. Outside of these El Niño years, almost every November since the Atlantic entered an active period in 1995 has seen at least one named storm. The only Atlantic hurricanes observed during El Niño Novembers since 1950 are Ida (2009), Florence and Gordon (1994), the “Perfect Storm†(1991), Frances (1986), and Martha (1969). There have been four years since 1950 with a strong El Niño in play during Oct-Dec (Niño3.4 index of at least +1.5°C). During those four years--1997, 1982, 1972, and 1965--only one named storm managed to develop in November: 1972’s Subtropical Storm Delta, which played out harmlessly far out in the central Atlantic.

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Given just enough of a boost from the slightly higher than normal SSTs perhaps?

 

anomwnc.gif

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Indeed, with winds of 65kts, which is a minimal hurricane. The hurricane is now racing northeastwards and is well on it's way to becoming extratropical.

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Kate’s remnants to succeed the UK’s first named winter storm, Abigail
Strong jet-stream winds are moving Kate into the central Atlantic, with a large nontropical center of low pressure located just west of Kate (see Figure 1). As Kate loses its tropical identity over the next 24 to 48 hours, the two cyclones will merge and continue racing east-northeast, ahead of a strengthening upper-level trough in the Northwest Atlantic. The combined system could bring strong winds and heavy rain to the British Isles late this weekend.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/hurricane-kate-races-across-atlantic-severe-weather-threatens-midwest

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The 12z gfs sees Kate merge with other LP areas by Monday.

Chart weatherbell

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There maybe trouble ahead! - Recent WV imagery shows how moist (white regions) the remnants of ex-Kate are...Might well account for the METO rain warning for the north.

post-12275-0-74238900-1447424629_thumb.p

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