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Somerset Squall

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Megh

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Another tropical cyclone has formed in the Arabian Sea, near where Cyclone Chapala formed last week. 05A has winds of 35kts according to JTWC, and is characterised by strong convecive banding wrapping into a well defined circulation with shallow associated convection. Dry air is affecting 05A, but shear is low and waters are warm, so steady intensification is expected as the system moves west-southwest, steered by a strong ridge to the north. This will guide 05A on a similar path to Chapala, but a bit further south. If this track verifies, Socotra Island would receive a landfall from this system.

Interesting that two systems will take this path into the Gulf Of Aden and the surrounding region so close together. Tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf Of Aden region is quite rare.

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The system became Cyclonic Storm Megh yesterday and has since slowly strengthened to 45kts according to JTWC. Not much has changed forecast wise really, Megh is forecast to become a cat 1 hurricane strength system before impacting Socotra. The track still takes Megh over or very close to that island. After, Megh will likely move into the Gulf Of Aden and perhaps end up on the shores of Yemen once more.

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Moderate MJO and record OHC in the Indian Ocean are making for a remarkable couple of weeks in that area. Almost identical track as Chapala. It's a major pity there are no observations from Yemen or Somalia.

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Tiny Megh has strengthened to 60kts according to JTWC. Looks like we could now have a category 2 strength system impacting Socotra, and, if the current forecast verifies, another hurricane strength landfall on mainland Yemen.

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Megh has continued to strengthen. The cyclone has a well defined eye now, embedded in the small central dense overcast. Winds are up to 90kts, a category 2 on the SS scale. Some more strengthening is expected in the next 12hrs before land interaction with Socotra and drier air weaken Megh.

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Now forecast to peak at 115 knots as it hits Socotra later today. This is bad...

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Rapid strengthening has occured overnight, and winds are at 110kts, cat 3 on the SS scale. The cyclone is making landfall on Socotra Island at this intensity. Slow weakening is forecast from now, but Megh is still forecast to make landfall on mainland Yemen as a hurricane strength system, which is amazing when you think that Chapala was the first on record to do so, and Megh is set to to do so so soon after.

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1039Z 85 GHz overpass and earlier rainfall rates of up to 1.2 inches per hour. Even allowing for parallax I think the bulk of the worst winds will have been just out to sea.

 

20151108.1039.noaa19.x.89_1deg.05AMEGH.1

 

20151108-0313-f18-x-rain-05amegh-90kts-9

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The latest view from #space of category 3 Tropical #Cyclone #Megh with winds of 125 MPH tracking towards #Yemen.

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Megh has cleared Socotra Island and is now moving through the Gulf Of Aden towards mainland Yemen. Weakening has occured due to dry air advecting into the cyclone from the Arabian Peninsula. Winds are down to 75kts. Landfall at or near hurricane strength in southwest Yemen is still expected.

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Megh made landfall last night and is rapidly dissipating over the mountains of Yemen. Fascinating storm this one and Chapala!

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