Alps & Pyrenees Snow Thread 2015/16

[weathertoski]

The models are playing mind games again today with wildly different outcomes for early January. Still optimistic for a major pattern change but can't rest easy yet...

[Harve]

Looks like there will indeed be snow in early January, at least for France (but encouragingly this includes the southern end of the French Alps).

 

It's just a question of snowline altitude and how much there will be - it could still only be a sprinkling. 

 

edit: 60cm of snow forecast around the Grandes Rousses and Ecrins massifs (Alpe D'Huez, Les 2 Alpes, Serre Chevalier) between the 2nd and the 5th. Obviously it's still a way off but seeing it on the forecast is at least encouraging. 

Edited December 27, 2015 by Harve

[J10]

On Thursday, I did my usual blog and mentioned the possibility of very cold air edging in from the east. However this now seems unlikely with the coldest air, now seemingly more likely to stay further east.
However 850 temps are set to fall below -5c in Eastern Austria, and sub 0c across the Alps by Day so much colder generally, with freeing level around 1500m, not over 3000m as has been the case. Also some snow is likely too.

Just to show how bad the snow conditions are in lower levels in France, Here is Morzine at 1000m, and this is the Pleney a North facing slope.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by J10

[Ravelin]

Practically tropical feeling at the moment in St.Anton. Not too bad down in the valley but warmth up on the hill isn't doing what little snow there is any favours, nor my sweat glamds. Colder hopefully at the end of the week and maybe some snow to make it at least look more normal even if it's not enough to make a major difference to the pistes.  

[Pipine]

Wow, I've been to morzine several times and always found the snow low down fairly heavy going and prone to bare patches but to see it completely bare like that is really sad.  Let's hope they get a dump soon. 

[Harve]

On 27/12/2015 at 5:38 PM, Harve said:

Looks like there will indeed be snow in early January, at least for France (but encouragingly this includes the southern end of the French Alps).

 

It's just a question of snowline altitude and how much there will be - it could still only be a sprinkling. 

 

edit: 60cm of snow forecast around the Grandes Rousses and Ecrins massifs (Alpe D'Huez, Les 2 Alpes, Serre Chevalier) between the 2nd and the 5th. Obviously it's still a way off but seeing it on the forecast is at least encouraging. 

172cm of snow now forecast for La Grave in the next 9 days according to the same link (based off the GFS). 

Edited December 28, 2015 by Harve

[J10]

I have issued the latest blog https://forum.netweather.tv/blogs/entry/4914-alps-ski-and-snow-forecast-blog-issued-29-december/

For once there is some optimism, with some colder weather likely and some snowfall likely over the next few days. Perhaps up to 20cm in places. With maybe more to following into the new year.

[dubmuffin]

We are currently in Zell am See and I am impressed that all the snow we have been skiing on is man made. Conditions are not ideal but we are luckier than some areas as we do have pistes to ski down, and as we are new to skiing, we don't have much experience to compare this to. Very excited to hear that we may see falling snow along with the fireworks on New Years Eve which would be a great way to end our holiday

[Blessed Weather]

2 hours ago, dubmuffin said:

We are currently in Zell am See and I am impressed that all the snow we have been skiing on is man made. Conditions are not ideal but we are luckier than some areas as we do have pistes to ski down, and as we are new to skiing, we don't have much experience to compare this to. Very excited to hear that we may see falling snow along with the fireworks on New Years Eve which would be a great way to end our holiday

Zell's a wonderful resort - I hope you're having a terrific week, despite skiing on artificial snow. Yes, looking like 4 to 6cm of snow Thurs night into Fri morning, although this may fall as wet snow/sleet down in the town. So don't get too pickled on New Year's Eve and get up the mountain early on Friday to enjoy a great last day's skiing on real snow with everywhere finally looking white!

Forecast at 1,379m altitude from Snowforecast.com:

[Daniel*]

 

[Blessed Weather]

^ Lol Daniel. Is that lovely pic to remind everyone what the Alps should look like at this time of year?

Thankfully we can finally look forward to a very snowy spell coming up for the Alps. From this Saturday onwards there's hardly a day in the following week without decent snow falling somewhere in the Alps. There is an issue about where freezing level (FL) will lie, but certainly anywhere above 1,500m should be totally transformed. Indeed, I would expect avalanche warnings may well start being issued later in the week, particularly for the French Alps, as accumulations start exceeding 1 metre of fresh snow. The heaviest snow expected in France & Switzerland, but it's the western Alps that will have the highest FL. Less snow expected further east, but colder temps so better for lower altitude pistes.

And it's a good start over the next few days. Here's the forecast snowfall depths from Thurs 31/12 to Mon 04/01:

Les Deux Alpes 107cm, Wengen 39cm, Sauze d'Oulx 52cm, Kitzbuhel 9cm, Katschberg 15cm.

And a few charts from today showing the welcome precipitation over the Alps for the coming Sat, Mon and Wed:

    

Edited December 30, 2015 by Blessed Weather

[Norrona2015]

Keeping a close eye on two possible destinations for next Thursday, 1 week possibly 2 depending on conditions. Or are those forecasted fresh snowfalls fantasy.....

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Avoriaz/6day/mid

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Nendaz/6day/mid

[carinthian]

Some pictures sent from my son and family members who live out in Vancouver. A very different winter tale over in British Columbia to that of Europe. The first picture in from Kitslano beach with Van City in the background surrounded by the local snow covered mountains, that can be reached in less than an hours drive and provide some good Alpine Ski-ing and snow boarding for the city dwellers. The second picture is over looking Fury Creek above the Sea to Sky highway on route to Whistler Ski resort about 60km drive. Whistler and the other resorts in BC are doing well this season with plenty of snow and cold high pressure conditions out from the interior. So much better than the woeful season they had last year. One mans gain, one mans loss as so to speak.

 C

[Duane S.]

I am planning on going to Samoens next week. Whilst there obviously is going to be some very decent snowfall for next week in that area, I am concerned that I could lose a couple of days with the very low base being built up / and or if there is a whiteout day. Then add to that it potentially turning back to rain over the Thursday and Friday as well, and I could only end up with a couple of skiable days!

Hopefully I am just being over pessimistic about things, any thoughts?

[m1chaels]

Having done several seasons the problem with snow this late, especially onto warm ground is that it will just not form a long lasting base which means even sizeable dumps will not last through the rest of the season.  Ideal would be soem really hard frosts, a good dump of wet snow with some rain mixed in then more normal cold January snow - not going to happen though.

[Blessed Weather]

5 hours ago, s4lancia said:

I am planning on going to Samoens next week. Whilst there obviously is going to be some very decent snowfall for next week in that area, I am concerned that I could lose a couple of days with the very low base being built up / and or if there is a whiteout day. Then add to that it potentially turning back to rain over the Thursday and Friday as well, and I could only end up with a couple of skiable days!

Hopefully I am just being over pessimistic about things, any thoughts?

I would hope you will have a very reasonable week's skiing s4lancia. The official French report on Samoens says there are 44 out of 147 pistes open today, with 15cm depth lower slopes and 47cm upper slopes. http://www.ledauphine.com/meteo/meteo-neige

But more importantly, taking the latest forecast for the next few days up to next Tues 5th there is a lot of positives. The forecast snowfall is for +50cm, coupled with overnight temps of -2C/-3C and daytime highs of 0C/+1C. So you can be sure the resort piste teams will be taking full advantage of conditions to dramatically improve pistes. Here's the latest forecast from Meteo France (for 800m altitude) and snowforecast.com (for 1,469m) for the first half of your week:

Meteo France Snowforecast.com

The negatives will be poor visibility during the first half of your week when snow is falling, and as you say, possible rain during Thurs/Fri as a warm sector crosses the Alps with the 850hPa isotherm (temp at approx 1,500m) showing +5C. But note that Meteo France still seem to think overnight lows will be -2C/-3C even on Thurs/Fri when rain might fall. http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-montagne/samoens/74340

Meteo France GFS 850hPa Thurs warm sector

I hope you have a great week. Try and post a 'heads up' whilst you're over there.

Edited December 31, 2015 by Blessed Weather
Not sure why underlining appeared in last few sentences, Tried to remove but couldn't!

[Duane S.]

Cheers Blessed. Assuming we go and don't postpone till later Iater in the season, I will make sure I upload a couple of pics, hopefully depicting a winter wonderland!! :-)

[weathertoski]

3 hours ago, s4lancia said:

Cheers Blessed. Assuming we go and don't postpone till later Iater in the season, I will make sure I upload a couple of pics, hopefully depicting a winter wonderland!! :-)

 

19 hours ago, s4lancia said:

I am planning on going to Samoens next week. Whilst there obviously is going to be some very decent snowfall for next week in that area, I am concerned that I could lose a couple of days with the very low base being built up / and or if there is a whiteout day. Then add to that it potentially turning back to rain over the Thursday and Friday as well, and I could only end up with a couple of skiable days!

Hopefully I am just being over pessimistic about things, any thoughts?

The good thing about the Grand Massif area is that there are lots of trees for bad weather days. I would rather be there next week than in, say, Tignes or Val Thorens, even it it means putting up with some rain lower down. The area above Les Carroz is best for bad vis skiing if you can get over there. 

[Blessed Weather]

4 hours ago, s4lancia said:

Cheers Blessed. Assuming we go and don't postpone till later Iater in the season, I will make sure I upload a couple of pics, hopefully depicting a winter wonderland!! :-)

 

40 minutes ago, weathertoski said:

 

The good thing about the Grand Massif area is that there are lots of trees for bad weather days. I would rather be there next week than in, say, Tignes or Val Thorens, even it it means putting up with some rain lower down. The area above Les Carroz is best for bad vis skiing if you can get over there. 

Tough call as to whether to postpone or 'go for it' s4lancia. Just to add to my earlier post - I forgot that there's an excellent chairlift link from Samoens up into the Flaine 'bowl', so that gives you extra altitude (if needed) and access to lots of additional pistes. But looking at the latest forecast for Flaine this coming week the risk is more about skiing in white-out conditions as heavy snow is forecast with over a metre expected. But weathertoski makes an excellent point that at least the Grand Massif area has lots of tree lined pistes to help visibility. Good luck with the decision!

[Duane S.]

Cheers guys, some great info there, many thanks!

Decision made. I suspect that those starting to return home after spending Xmas/New Year there would have given their right arms for these conditions compared to what they have mostly had to endure. So I'm thinking I should just be grateful that there is decent snowfall forecast at all! On that basis, we will be heading out Sunday :-)

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

Cheers guys, some great info there, many thanks!

Decision made. I suspect that those starting to return home after spending Xmas/New Year there would have given their right arms for these conditions compared to what they have mostly had to endure. So I'm thinking I should just be grateful that there is decent snowfall forecast at all! On that basis, we will be heading out Sunday :-)

Here are some pictures that should cheers any snow lovers. Back in Feb 2014 when we had a great snowy month. Can you find the neighbours car  ? The last picture is on the back runs of Katschberg overlooking the Pollatal Valley.

 C

[J10]

Latest Ski Blog, with the expectation of some snow over the next few days, however as is ever the case nothing is certain, and in lower levels in the west, rain may be more likely, and further east it is likely to be a bit drier.

However saying this most of the Alps seems likely to see some of the white stuff in the next 7 days.

[Blessed Weather]

51 minutes ago, J10 said:

Latest Ski Blog, with the expectation of some snow over the next few days, however as is ever the case nothing is certain, and in lower levels in the west, rain may be more likely, and further east it is likely to be a bit drier.

However saying this most of the Alps seems likely to see some of the white stuff in the next 7 days.

Great blog Julian. Thank you. Good to see (at last) forecasts that include the potential for some heavy snowfall. As you point out, there's an issue about where freezing level will be (more so in the west). If only we could get the overall pattern a little further south, then lower pistes might benefit too. But nevertheless, even in lower resorts it's only a chairlift up the mountain and people should be able to enjoy good natural snow cover.

And after this December's disaster, it's so much better news at last!

[Norrona2015]

44 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Great blog Julian. Thank you. Good to see (at last) forecasts that include the potential for some heavy snowfall. As you point out, there's an issue about where freezing level will be (more so in the west). If only we could get the overall pattern a little further south, then lower pistes might benefit too. But nevertheless, even in lower resorts it's only a chairlift up the mountain and people should be able to enjoy good natural snow cover.

And after this December's disaster, it's so much better news at last!

Amen!

[carinthian]

If you are thinking of coming out to Katschberg this season, stay away from this place, unless you like loud music, dancing and a hangover. Really good oven fired pizza served here and ideally located at the end of the run into the village. There is a good chance you may see me in there !

 C