Alps & Pyrenees Snow Thread 2015/16

[J10]

Here is my  first forecast of the season - Blogs to follow in coming weeks.

As others have mentioned there was some welcome snow over parts of the Alps in recent weeks, however it has been mostly dry with plenty of dry, mild and sunny weather.

Synoptic Pattern
The general theme of a mild SW flow with high pressure in charge seems very well set for at least the coming week.

 

There are difference in the detail each day, but the pattern is very similar each day.

Freezing Levels

Generally pretty mild with the freezing point maxing above 2000m for the most part.

However with the sunny daytime skies, and clear overnight, temps are set to drop far more than the mild upper air would suggests, and freeze thaw conditions may well be a story this coming week.

Precipitation

So looking pretty dry over the Alps this coming week, totally dry for SE areas, but perhaps up to 10mm of precipitation possible further North and West.

Summary

Mostly,dry, settled and mild for this coming week, and the models tend to suggest this general theme being more likely in the medium term at least.

Edited December 6, 2015 by J10

[J10]

44 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Ravelin, take a look at our own eco water supply. Well down with little snow feed or summer rains. Euro high taking its toll. Soon will have to put snow guns on rationing, that if it ever gets cold enough to use again ! Crap start to the season, not looking good. Worried about Christmas as charts not showing anything snowy or seasonal. The pictures taken yesterday.

 C

Parts of the UK really could do with skies like that at the moment,

[Winter2009]

On 29 November 2015 21:49:55, Blessed Weather said:

 

Here's the webcam page from the official Salzburger Sportwelt website. http://www.salzburgersportwelt.com/en/resorts/webcams.html

 

Or you could try this website that lists even more webcams. Scroll down to the 'Webcams Salzburg' list and you'll see all the 'Ski Amade' resorts. With this website you can choose webcam images from previous hours of the day or even previous days. http://www.bergfex.com/oesterreich/webcams/

 

Fingers crossed for a change back to colder/snowier weather for your daughter's trip.

What is the closest of the webcams to St Johann? 

 

[carinthian]

Morning all,another sparkling dawn in the snowless Eastern Alps. Day after day of sun. Looks more like the Morocca Alps!

 

C

[jvenge]

47 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all,another sparkling dawn in the snowless Eastern Alps. Day after day of sun. Looks more like the Morocca Alps!

 

C

That must be tricky for the season. What temperatures are you experiencing?

[carinthian]

15 minutes ago, jvenge said:

That must be tricky for the season. What temperatures are you experiencing?

Hello,

Below freezing at night and about 7C max at 1650m, so not that warm as long as the Tropical maritime airmass keeps away at elevation, but no moisture to produce snowfall. Relying on man made snow piste at the moment.

 Thank you for your interest in Moldova.

[Norrona2015]

On 22 November 2015 at 16:59:18, Norrona2015 said:

Very encouraging weather over the last few days. First boarding trip of the season planned in just over a fortnights time, Avoriaz, cannot wait!!

Thursday's trip to Avoriaz cancelled due to poor conditions/outlook.

[Blessed Weather]

19 hours ago, Winter2009 said:

What is the closest of the webcams to St Johann? 

 

Here's the webpage for many (if not all) of the webcams at St Johann: http://www.bergfex.com/sankt-johann-alpendorf/webcams/

Just click on a webcam pic to go to that webcam. Notice the times of the day in red on the right. If you've just come home from work and it's dark on the live webcam, you click on one of the earlier times to see it in daylight!

Or here is St Johann's own website webcam page: http://www.sanktjohann.com/en/sankt-johann-alpendorf/livecams.html

It's currently snow-less down in the village, but looks snowy further up the mountain. And the forecast for St Johann for this coming weekend is for it to turn colder with some light snow (3 to 6cm) above approx 1,100m on Saturday. 

[J10]

4 hours ago, Norrona2015 said:

Thursday's trip to Avoriaz cancelled due to poor conditions/outlook.

http://www.avoriaz.com/en/discovering/interactive-tour/pictures-videos-and-webcam?tab=webcam

[pyrotech]

looking at the Alpe d'hues resort seems almost 90cm at higher slopes and  snow at valley level

I also see signs of snow likely later this week

 

At a height of 1800m what 850mb temperatures would cause melting at that level?

have friends going out around 27th and to me ( not exactly my field of any expertise) it looks like they would be okay for snow.

Julian et al whats your thoughts

 

today snow at height lowered from 90cm to 60cm i would suggest due to warm 850mb?

 

Edited December 8, 2015 by pyrotech
added todays total

[Blessed Weather]

7 hours ago, pyrotech said:

looking at the Alpe d'hues resort seems almost 90cm at higher slopes and  snow at valley level

I also see signs of snow likely later this week

 

At a height of 1800m what 850mb temperatures would cause melting at that level?

have friends going out around 27th and to me ( not exactly my field of any expertise) it looks like they would be okay for snow.

Julian et al whats your thoughts

 

today snow at height lowered from 90cm to 60cm i would suggest due to warm 850mb?

 

Hi pyrotech. All the snow reports from Alpe D'Huez have the upper depth at 60cm (this includes the 'official' depth as reported by Le Dauphine website, the bible for accurate figures in France http://www.ledauphine.com/meteo/meteo-neige ). I wouldn't have thought the 850 hPa temps for this week have been so warm as to cause a 30cm drop in depth from 90 to 60cm in so short a space of time. So maybe the drop was an adjustment/correction by whatever source you were looking at??

The 850hPa charts show the temperature at approx 1,500m above sea level. That is why I like using them for the Alps as you can relate that to the heights of pistes in resorts. So if you look at an 850hPa chart and it's showing the 0C isotherm over the Alps, that will be the approx temp at 1,500m. If it's showing the -10C isotherm, that'll be the approx temp at 1,500m (and we all start smiling!!). If you can see a precipitation chart showing blue/green at the same time as the -5/-10 isotherm is over the Alps, then start cheering - it's going to snow!

Whilst it's frustrating following the model output at the moment in the search for cold and snow, it's too far out to get too worried about the 27th Dec. The models are all over the place at the moment. I've a sneaky feeling there will be a good fall of snow for the Alps in the immediate run up the Christmas.

By the way, Meteo-France isn't showing any snow for Alpe D'Huez this coming weekend. I think the front runs out of puff before reaching the Alps (with maybe the exception of further East into Austria which may see a dusting).

[J10]

I wonder if we will get a heavy dose of snow after Christmas Day like last year.

[Ravelin]

27 minutes ago, J10 said:

I wonder if we will get a heavy dose of snow after Christmas Day like last year.

On one hand...yes please, on the other hand...not on the day we arrive again this year please.

The weather gods have my permission to make the mother of all snowstorms on the 27th, but not the 26th. Then I can sit with a beer and look out at it, with a smug smile on my face at the thought of the awesome skiing the following week. 

Alternatively, where did I put my walking boots again? 

[pyrotech]

Hi Malcolm

yes been using the 850mb and precipitation charts

I more than understand all that, not a newbie intact i own too major weather websites

The issue is that drop in depth and from same source, please note in my post i mention the 60cm today.

I also see possible 850mb temps of 5c between now and xmas as possible but with surface temp of -5

So looking for some local knowledge on precipitation in those circumstances, plus the reason why 90cm becomes 60cm over one day.

Warmer air with sunshine can do similar, it causes a layer of ice on the snow which adds to the chances of avalanche later in season if significant snowfall on top.

However the 30cm drop is very large and your theory of adjustment sounds more feasible

[johnholmes]

22 hours ago, pyrotech said:

looking at the Alpe d'hues resort seems almost 90cm at higher slopes and  snow at valley level

I also see signs of snow likely later this week

 

At a height of 1800m what 850mb temperatures would cause melting at that level?

have friends going out around 27th and to me ( not exactly my field of any expertise) it looks like they would be okay for snow.

Julian et al whats your thoughts

 

today snow at height lowered from 90cm to 60cm i would suggest due to warm 850mb?

 

If there had been a fhon effect that could certainly strip a lot of snow in a short time. But no idea if that is what happened.

[pyrotech]

jon

How do you see the ski resorts over the Alps and Bulgaria between now and new year.

Would any precipitation at those heights be of snow even if warm 850mb temps?

is that all we need (precipitation) or even at the heights of the resorts are temperatures a huge factor?

 

I was under the impression that from this time of year anything falling above 1800m in Alps and Bulgaria ski resorts would be snow, so all i would be looking for is precipitation, however we are seeing a very warm anomaly in temperature across Europe.

 

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, pyrotech said:

jon

How do you see the ski resorts over the Alps and Bulgaria between now and new year.

Would any precipitation at those heights be of snow even if warm 850mb temps?

is that all we need (precipitation) or even at the heights of the resorts are temperatures a huge factor?

 

I was under the impression that from this time of year anything falling above 1800m in Alps and Bulgaria ski resorts would be snow, so all i would be looking for is precipitation, however we are seeing a very warm anomaly in temperature across Europe.

 

Not often but you can get rain up to 2000m at times, this is a situation that rarely lasts for more than a few hours when it occurs, so the actual zero C level also needs to be looked at when checking model outputs.

[Blessed Weather]

Come on GFS!!! Let's have the best present ever from Santa!!! This morning's 0z run for Christmas Day.  (And please don't spoil my straw clutch with any talk of "it's got no support"!!).

 

[carinthian]

Real worry now in the resorts. Cancellations coming in for the festive period. Only a 15 week seasonal trading period for many businesses in the winter sports holiday industry to show a return in their investment to see out the rest of the year. Forgot, also many seasonal staff could be laid off, from hotel workers to lift attendants.

 C

[nick sussex]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Real worry now in the resorts. Cancellations coming in for the festive period. Only a 15 week seasonal trading period for many businesses in the winter sports holiday industry to show a return in their investment to see out the rest of the year. Forgot, also many seasonal staff could be laid off, from hotel workers to lift attendants.

 C

Yes its desperate at the moment, the issue is even if there was some change in the outputs it might not come in time. The irony here in the Pyrenees is the skiing season started earlier than usual at the end of November in Cauterets with that colder snowier week. But since then its been wall to wall sunshine. Apparently using snow cannons is very expensive and of course if it gets too mild you can't use them. At this stage Carinthian we need to start praying for a miracle!

[carinthian]

Hi Nick, the public perception is that Ski resorts cannot be wounded or hurt by these warm conditions. Massive regional investment here on snow guns and expansion of our own eco water supply. Due to lack of summer rains and snow accumulation so far, the reservoir is low. So really a two pronged problem to use the snow guns, ok freezing at night and thaw during the endless sunny days we have in many parts of the Alps, would end up as a waste of resources. Just have to sit tight and grin and bear the atmospheric conditions that prevail. As you say we need to start praying for a miracle.

 C

[Ravelin]

Ah, see, I knew it. The day we arrive in Austria it's gonna snow (tongue firmly in cheek).

Not expecting the chaos we had in France last year getting to La Plagne. With typical Germanic efficiency I'm sure getting us to St.Anton from Innsbruck will be no problem (assuming we can actually land at Innsbruck).

[dubmuffin]

We're off to Zell am See on Boxing Day, our first ever Christmas holiday break and second ever skiing holiday. I'm watching this thread closely over the next two weeks and praying for a Christmas miracle. Is that GFS run photoshopped to make Austria look snowy!

[Ravelin]

3 minutes ago, dubmuffin said:

We're off to Zell am See on Boxing Day, our first ever Christmas holiday break and second ever skiing holiday. I'm watching this thread closely over the next two weeks and praying for a Christmas miracle. Is that GFS run photoshopped to make Austria look snowy!

No, but it's so far away that the chances of it turning out like the model predicts are virtually zero. That's not to say it won't snow that day. Being one of the busiest changeover days across the Alps probably tends towards 'sods law' kicking in to cause maximum  traffic chaos. 

[J10]

 

The latest snow update from Ski Club GB giving European latest conditions have been posted. I have given the summary below, the detailed version is available at the links provided.

Link http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full  and 

http://www.skiclub.co.uk/

SNOW NEWS UPDATED 10 DECEMBER 2015

INTRODUCTION Conditions in the Alps  have improved slightly following 2-10cm of fresh snowfall on Wednesday, which led to some decent skiing under sunny skies on Thursday 10th December. Temperatures were slightly colder than of late which enabled snow machines to fire at all but the lowest levels overnight, helping to build the snowbase ahead of the busiest time of year over Christmas. Much of the snow on piste does remain artificial however so more snow is definitely needed before the crowds really begin to arrive next week.

EUROPEAN WEATHER OUTLOOK The settled spell of weather looks set to continue over the weekend across the Alps, with sunny skies and temperatures at mid-mountain hovering just about freezing expected. A snowy change looks finally to be on the horizon from Monday night onwards however, with snow set to hit the northern and western Alps again. Current forecasts are calling for upwards of 20cm of fresh snow in places, but once again the southern and eastern Alps look set to miss out on the heaviest falls.

Edited December 10, 2015 by J10