Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards

[joggs]

It came more into focus quite quickly as models dithered. Interestingly, a few days ago on 8 Nov, colleagues and I discussed what was then a minority (& thus unlikely, at the time) cluster in EC ENS right at end of run... compare and contrast it, shown here, now to broadscale 00z DET output:

Thanks for the reply Fergieweather. Edited November 14, 2015 by joggs

[Paul]

For those interested in El Nino, and it's potential role in the UK's weather this winter, I'd definitely recommend having a read of Nick's blog:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6991;sess=

[bluearmy]

worth going through the meteociel spreads on ecm this morning to see the way this suite clusters things together. this run appears to show the 'channel runner' cluster a bit further south and diving se into the alpine region. it also shows general atlantic blocking by day 10 with noticeable clustering away from the mean on a s greeny block. the scandi trough a bit further east compared to the last run which fits in with the strat data from the op which has less greeny ridge (more n atlantic) with the scandi trough very marked but a bit further east. (in comparison to the 12z).

 

if this is a downgrade, then the pendulum is likely to deliver even better runs than it did yesterday!

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning continues to show a cool/cold N/NW flow from around the 20th, With some very cold -9 850's touching parts of Scotland and -5/6 850's further South giving some sharp frosts and maybe even some ice days for some. Lots of micro detail will change, So forecasting snow/where will be pointless at this range. Potential is also there for another cold blast from the North into the run.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

Quite a change on the ECMWF-GFS 500mb anomaly charts this morning and not like the NOAA outputs last evening either. Too early to be confident for cold lovers but they certainly show what they want, see link below. These two, over the past couple of years have on a few occasions been the first to show a pattern change that turned out to be correct. However I would urge caution until they show continuity over at least 2-3 days and that the NOAA outputs also show similar.Nothing on the GFS MJO output suggests that the 500mb pattern is anything other than a short affair IF at all yet.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

the output from NAEFS also supports the above charts

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

We will all know by this time next week if the above chart predictions were correct!

Edited November 14, 2015 by johnholmes

[london and south east kent]

Hi have not looked at all models where are we with the colder spell later next week I'm new to this forum thank you â„ï¸â„ï¸

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This will do nicely for my UK wide impactual weather for my 'specific' period 20-24 Nov which will be part of the numerous severe weather warnings

 

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited November 14, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Liam J]

Hi have not looked at all models where are we with the colder spell later next week I'm new to this forum thank you â„ï¸â„ï¸

You've been a member for nearly two years? Anyway you can view the main models using this link, use the 'other models' button to switch between model outputs.  - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess= 

Edited November 14, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Polar Maritime]

This will do nicely for my UK wide impactual weather for my 'specific' period 20-24 Nov which will be part of the numerous severe weather warnings

 

 

Yes Fred, The 'Models' continue to stick with the running trend of late. With the 20th still showing as the game-changer to a cooler shot of sorts from the North.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[carinthian]

Not sure the UKMO have a colder end of next week into the weekend and beyond. Their latest net forecast for that period refers to unsettled conditions with (cooler) conditions at times. Temperatures should average out at near normal or slightly above normal. So I think based on that forecast, probably not. However, as always time will tell and may be updated ;ater today. Not sure who writes these forecasts or checks the wording, but should read colder and not cooler at this time of year. That's off my chest now !

c

[bluearmy]

Not sure the UKMO have a colder end of next week into the weekend and beyond. Their latest net forecast for that period refers to unsettled conditions with (cooler) conditions at times. Temperatures should average out at near normal or slightly above normal. So I think based on that forecast, probably not. However, as always time will tell and may be updated ;ater today. Not sure who writes these forecasts or checks the wording, but should read colder and not cooler at this time of year. That's off my chest now !

c

I imagine they are waiting to see the mogreps and ECM ens clusters after yesterday. if the tend remains then the wording will follow.

[fergieweather]

I imagine they are waiting to see the mogreps and ECM ens clusters after yesterday. if the tend remains then the wording will follow.

No, I assume public one not updated. Detailed briefing has the change of emphasis, eg "Days 8 to 10: Saturday 21st to Monday 23rd November: The most likely scenario is for the cold air across the N to sink S across all areas during Saturday..."

[Summer Sun]

This morning's ECM ens supports a north to north westerly flow developing later next week

 

 

Colder air sinking further south during the weekend

 

[carinthian]

No, I assume public one not updated. Detailed briefing has the change of emphasis, eg "Days 8 to 10: Saturday 21st to Monday 23rd November: The most likely scenario is for the cold air across the N to sink S across all areas during Saturday..."

Thanks for that Ian. Thought that was the case, maybe someone will update soon on the web site.

 

cheers

 C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I like the fact they came on and are on board PM......especially ECM which had to wait until well into Nov to show the upcoming period

 

 

 

00z is a corker folks but so was the 18z.....which one would you have preferred.....for me the 18z with the big block that built to our NE

 

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 14, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[carinthian]

Well after weeks of stuck under Euro High over here in the Eastern Alps, a change on the way. By Thursday and Friday next week the westerly jet will be in full force into the heart of Europe. Storm force winds are expected in parts of the Alps in the warm sector before the colder condition edge in from the north. The Arctic front now looks to be making some progress southwards by next weekend through the BI not before a lot of rain deposited in the parts of the British Isles.

 C

[fergieweather]

Thanks for that Ian. Thought that was the case, maybe someone will update soon on the web site.

cheers

C

Yes. You'll appreciate it's hands to pump at Ops Centre due to much more pressing situation confronting parts of NW UK over weekend. Very serious scenario. Edited November 14, 2015 by fergieweather

[Timmytour]

Yes. You'll appreciate it's hands to pump at Ops Centre due to much more pressing situation confronting parts of NW UK over weekend. Very serious scenario.

That does look worrying indeed.  It looks similar to Nov 2009 which I believe had the record rainfall in a 24 hour period. Is it likely that the record could be threatened?   Really hope folk in especially Cumbria are ok....it just doesn't seem that long since they suffered so much with extensive flooding

Edited November 14, 2015 by Timmytour

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes. You'll appreciate it's hands to pump at Ops Centre due to much more pressing situation confronting parts of NW UK over weekend. Very serious scenario.

With more issues to follow too it would seem Fergie.....Not good....

 

 

BFTP

[Polar Maritime]

 Not before a lot of rain deposited in the parts of the British Isles.

 C

 

Yes Carinthian, Rainfall totals almost off the scale over the nest few days. Flooding inevitable and being much over looked.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[carinthian]

Yes Carinthian, Rainfall totals almost off the scale over the nest few days. Flooding inevitable. pm

Hello PM, looks like The Lake District particularly off the scales. Talk of 200mm plus up there !

 C

[bobbydog]

Yes Carinthian, Rainfall totals almost off the scale over the nest few days. Flooding inevitable and being much over looked.

then this to follow-

[Polar Maritime]

then this to follow-

ukgust.png

 

Yes Bobby, Some pretty severe weather to come over the next few days. Gales force winds and prolonged heavy rain..And it's literally right on our doorsteps! 

[snowking]

Well the 0z ECM ensembles maintain the trend from a temperature perspective of yesterdays 12z, with a cold weekend to come next weekend potentially before more of a return towards something 'average' temperature wise (certainly single figures for the majority into the following week).

 

In the medium to longer term it should be noted that the extreme Greenland blocking scenarios as per some of the 12z suites yesterday do still exist but as a minority cluster. At the present moment the most likely scenario in the medium term looks to be some form of mid-atlantic ridging eventually with the jet on a NW-SE axis, and most likely giving periodic flows of PM air. That's something we also see from the main GEFS cluster:

 

 

What remains encouraging for both tropospheric and hemispheric prospects is the continuation of some strong height anomalies across regions to our North and particularly to our North-East across Siberia, though we are far from seeing whether this alone can reverse the mammoth westerly start to the stratospheric flow.

 

SK

Edited November 14, 2015 by snowking

[radiohead]

Looking good for snow lovers up north on the latest GFS,