Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards

[Milhouse]

Ensemble mean looks well above average dropping to average/slightly above in FI. Op run on the cooler side of the mean throughout FI

 

[knocker]

The ext ecm anomaly is in no hurry to lose the influence of the HP to the south and it's only towards the end of the run around the 16th that the zonality becomes a touch more trough dominated. For what it's worth my summation vis the GEFS, ECM and NOAA anomalies would be a slow transition to a flatter pattern around the 15th leading to more zonality (not the Atlantic express) and a north/south split regarding warmer/colder air over the UK. There will of course be latitudinal variations on a short term basis but that's for the detail to resolve at a later date and pointless to concentrate on that now considering the time frame. I will add once again this isn't a million miles from the last EC32 update. Await to see what today's has to say.

[radiohead]

That's a nasty one on the 18Z GFS. Sustained winds 120+ kmh hitting Islay there.

 

[Costa Del Fal]

all i say  for the east coast fantasy world  could make the  coldies  happy   i know it wont happen but its  nice to think it  could!!!

This made me laugh! Please post some charts in the near time frame for a change!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Greenland blocking incoming once again....

 

 

Hemispherically this is completely different to last year.....

 

 

 

Doesn't quite make it on this run, but interesting nonetheless.

Edited November 2, 2015 by CreweCold

[bluearmy]

Knocks will update a more detailed Ec32 profile but noticeable is the northeast Canadian high anomoly present throughout the run and especially the latter stages. Not quite far enough East to dictate a -NAO in the mean charts but will probably push the jet on a southerly track and we see a general nw European/Scandi low anomoly. The euro high anomoly pushed way south. now that provides for a whole gamut of solutions, some of which would be wintry and some average to cool. will be interesting to see exeters assessment later via the 30 dayer to see where the groupings lie.

[knocker]

How I read it blue.

 

A brief overview of the latest EC32 update starting a little earlier than usual as it’s an interesting period.

 

On Saturday the 7^th the upper ridge stretches Iberia to the Baltic States with a deep mid Atlantic trough which also spreads east close to northern Scotland.  Thus a surface analysis of a SW flow with the SE under the HP with depressions bringing unsettled weather to the rest of the UK. Very warm.

 

This analysis evolves quite quickly in during the next week to a broad area of HP spreading from the SW to the SE via the UK with a weak troughing following a similar path to the NW/ NE.  The stream lines veering more to the WSW as initially the troughing has more influence but soon gives way to the HP pushing up from the south. Temps above average becoming average.

 

This more or less zonal flow continues to the 18^th  when the Atlantic trough becomes much more dominant and from here until the 4^th December  would appear to be very unsettled with depressions nipping along the main line into the UK in a very mobile scenario,

 

Summary

 

A brief period of unsettled weather early next week but settling again to around the 18^th when the winter train service from the Atlantic is resumed and unsettled into December. Quite warm early part of November becoming around average. No sign of Jack Frost in the woodshed so the news of his early arrival may have been exaggerated.

 

Probably reasonable to include here the METO take for period 17th-01 Dec.

 

 

The second half of November looks set to be characterised by a northwest-southeast split. The northwest is expected to have the most unsettled conditions with occasional spells of rain and strong winds, although with some drier periods at times. The southeast will probably have the greatest amount of dry and fine weather, but even here some rain will pass through at times. Some overnight fog and frosts may develop at times, but overall temperatures will probably be mild.

Edited November 3, 2015 by knocker

[radiohead]

[knocker]

Yes an interesting little system but I suspect a fair bit of uncertainty attached. The ecm take.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[bluearmy]

That Meto 30 dayer from the previous ex32 run in conjunction with its other monthly models knocks

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning shows a stormy end to the week especially for the North with heavy rain and severe gales, Into the new week shows a much fresher Atlantic flow from the W/N/W. Certainly a more mobile pattern coming up.

Edited November 3, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

That Meto 30 dayer from the previous ex32 run in conjunction with its other monthly models knocks

 

Oh I assumed "Updated at: 0038 on Tue 03 Nov 2015" meant it included the latest blue. My mistake but actually nothing much has changed.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run again shows a colder spell during mid november with night frosts and wintry showers, especially on northern hills. It's a generally unsettled run with bands of rain and strong winds affecting all parts of the uk and as early as next week, scotland in particular gets an early taste of colder weather with more of a north atlantic flow veering towards polar maritime...so, it looks like a more seasonal pattern is on the way and I think there are grounds to be optimistic about our first cold snap / spell in the not too distant future.  

Edited November 3, 2015 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

Oh I assumed "Updated at: 0038 on Tue 03 Nov 2015" meant it included the latest blue. My mistake but actually nothing much has changed.

I doubt They would have had time to digest and evaluate the whole run by midnight knocks.

[johnholmes]

Little sign to me on the anomaly charts I use of anything altering in a major way within the next 2 weeks.

links below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

It would seem that anything changing is going to be beyond the 2 week period for it to have any marked change on the upper air pattern. Minor changes will obviously occur but, what most are looking for, a lengthy cold outbreak is not showing yet.

[Frosty.]

a lengthy cold outbreak is not showing yet.

Agreed but something more seasonal / typical for early / mid november is showing..which is a start 

[MR EXTREMES]

With no real northern blocking apparent there's generally nothing to promote a cold November or start of winter at this point in time.

Generally a slow build into a more unsettled pattern with the west and north suffering the worst of any wet and windy spells the north also look like having the possibility of some wintry weather at times as we move towards mid month with west and northwest flow upper t850s may well need a degree knocked of because of the cold Atlantic anomaly so possible that higher ground could have some accumulated snow fall.

For the southern half of the uk will have breezy and wet conditions at times although suspect more in line with average to slightly below in rainfall term!

temps much above to start dropping to near normal as the month progresses.

The models do how ever suggest a decline of euro heights and the Azores height at the moment look to be suppressed to a degree although recent runs suggest a very strong Azores heights moving to the south and southeast of the uk!

This in turn could still pop up to be a feature in future runs with possibility that the southern half of the uk could become settled with near average temps.

Although a lot of seasonal models suggest a more west north west flow dominating and to be honest right now with high solar activity which picked up during our last settled frosty spell a few weeks back and a strong El Niño it's very 97/98 like with this November breaking a record already with cet.

Although yesterday felt like summer here and it was beautiful.

I know it's only November but I'm still feeling Feb to be our best bet for a more wintry flavour although if we follow 97/98 then of coarse Feb with be a bust for coldness to.

[Summer Sun]

ECM maintains a north south split this morning with the high dominating over mainland Europe never far away further north there is the risk of some strong winds and rain at times as low pressure systems track north of the British isles and temperatures generally above average throughout

 

 

The day 10 ens also shows this north south split with the high still dominating across mainland Europe and influencing the south keeping it mainly dry here the greatest rain risk is in the north generally mild but breezy for all

 

[Nouska]

<snipped>

Although a lot of seasonal models suggest a more west north west flow dominating and to be honest right now with high solar activity which picked up during our last settled frosty spell a few weeks back and a strong El Niño it's very 97/98 like with this November breaking a record already with cet.

Although yesterday felt like summer here and it was beautiful.

I know it's only November but I'm still feeling Feb to be our best bet for a more wintry flavour although if we follow 97/98 then of coarse Feb with be a bust for coldness to.

 

The outlook is nothing remotely like early November '97!  

 

Now  ...     '97  

 

Solar activity is very low at the moment - it was also low in late '97.  ......    http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/figs/kp1997.gif

 

 

 

There are a number of years with similar synoptics to now - some had very cold winter months - others none. There's nothing to be gleaned as to what the winter will bring - sit back, relax and watch another unique season unfold.

 

http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/section/earths-magnetic-field/services/kp-index/

[MP-R]

The outlook is nothing remotely like early November '97!  

 

Now  ...     '97  

 

Solar activity is very low at the moment - it was also low in late '97.  ......    http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/figs/kp1997.gif

 

 

 

There are a number of years with similar synoptics to now - some had very cold winter months - others none. There's nothing to be gleaned as to what the winter will bring - sit back, relax and watch another unique season unfold.

 

http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/section/earths-magnetic-field/services/kp-index/

 

I'm glad somebody pointed this out; we're in quite a different position to autumn 1997 (needless to say 97/98 was quite an exceptional winter). The Atlantic definitely doesn't have quite as much oomph this year as in 1997 and the Euro high is proving a lot more stubborn.

 

In the short term, this coming weekend still looking like a very mild one with the 10C isotherm not far away again:

 

 

Will have to wait for the 06Z to roll out before a comparison can be made of what happens next week onwards. One thing is for sure, it's about to turn more unsettled - starting this afternoon in fact in the southwest with rain pushing north, lingering in a showery fashion tomorrow before more substantial rain on Thursday with the breeze picking up.

[fergieweather]

I doubt They would have had time to digest and evaluate the whole run by midnight knocks.

The updates provided after 00z (both to the website and as the more detailed M-R briefing to their clients) does include last night's EC Monthly output, plus latest GloSea5. Both are in good agreement re broadscale developments this month, i.e. resulting in pronounced low height anomalies to NW; gradual reduction in the marked +ve temp anomalies to ultimately sit at average or slightly above by end of Nov, with some Pm/rPm influence more prevalent (so more typical climatology, perhaps some wintry ppn at times over northern uplands). The signals by early Dec are too weak/muted to afford any direction, albeit UKMO suggest continued +ve NAO theme retained, as expected into that period (with strong support in seasonal modelling).

[knocker]

Much obliged for that update Fergie. My next post is now redundant so will desist from any more thoughts from knocker.

[MR EXTREMES]

i think compaired to last november i think 97 is pretty close to this november.

nov 2014 t144hrs

 

this nov t144hrs

 

very different last November looked much better going forward although failed here in the south.

I strongly feel that 97 nov looks very similar or as close as you can get.

 

just before our most recent settled high pressure spell there was a very deep dip in solar activity not a long duration dip in solar activity but enough to help high pressure be at a stronger magnitude!

also disrupting the jet strength!

 

but since the uptick in solar output things are becoming much more active with most recent runs showing stronger jet stream and a decline in strong heights!,

although I'm not suggesting that month of nov is not the month when autumn ticks into gear and the vortex wakes from its slumber.

 

but I do wonder whether higher solar activity actually feeds the vortex helping it to become a more dominant feature...

 

 but add in strong nino and higher solar output and west qbo then suggesting that nov 2015 being similar not exactly the same as 97 could be a fair statement by the end of this coming month but of coarse we need to wait and see.

 

although maybe just maybe the strat maybe our friend this winter!

 

and of coarse that could change the whole pattern or make a clear statement that strong el nino are not as favourable for colder uk winters.

 

but of coarse its all a learning curve and there is so much more to take into consideration.  

 

although from what I'm seeing further on in the model outputs its some good chances of some fairly low uppers moving into the north with a long drawn westerly possibly northwesterly at times but that's much later on in the runs and could and most likely will CHANGE but the possibility is there for the north.

 

but south west , west, and north west flow is the most likely outcome for the month of November 2015. 

Edited November 3, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[bluearmy]

Thanks for the info Ian - i'm wrong - not for the first time and certainly not for the last

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z again shows a more seasonal pattern by next week with scotland in particular becoming rather cold with increasing Pm influence  and showers turning wintry on northern high ground with overnight frosts, towards mid month it becomes noticeably colder at times further south too. It's a generally unsettled run with bouts of rain and strong winds affecting the uk, especially further north. I think the coldies among us will be pleased to see the chances of relatively colder air at times in the next few weeks looking increasingly likely...not very mild all the time which will make a nice change for this coldie!       

Edited November 3, 2015 by Frosty.