Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Certainly a chilly end to the GFS 12z this afternoon. Ridge building in the atlantic giving quite a strong northerly flow for Monday 16th. A few colder members in the GEFS starting to appear for mid month too...

post-16336-0-20221400-1446484646_thumb.g

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Notice how the cold is kind of approaching from a NW quadrant on the charts frosty posted.. maybe the anomalously cool Atlantic having an influence.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Awesome FI AGAIN from the GFS OP, I wonder if the METO are starting to see a change in their models.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Awesome FI AGAIN from the GFS OP, I wonder if the METO are starting to see a change in their models.

P16 looks the best of the GEFS...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: orpington kent
  • Weather Preferences: winter is frost and snow/summer is heatwaves
  • Location: orpington kent

Looks like cold snow is on its way mid November onward was November 2010? Similar to this?â„ï¸

post-21426-0-22187200-1446487019.gif

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Looks like cold snow is on its way mid November onward was November 2010? Similar to this?â„ï¸

 

That would be a hell of a forecast with so very little go on at the moment, not sure anyone is making it here but good luck to them if they are. 

The MetO are currently forecasting mild into second half of Nov and it would take much stronger signal before they would consider changing that.

If they did though, given how rightly cautious they are of predicting cold or snow so far out, then that would be quite exciting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Looks like cold snow is on its way mid November onward was November 2010? Similar to this?â„ï¸

Hi ,Welcome to Netweather. Please would you put your Location in ! Many thanks... :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

GEFS (P) ensemble mean definately sniffing a pattern change for mid-November,as those euro height anomalies do a disappearing act. :)

 

+240 hrs..post-2839-0-42148300-1446487703_thumb.pn   +360 hrs..post-2839-0-18985700-1446487712_thumb.pn

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

That would be a hell of a forecast with so very little go on at the moment, not sure anyone is making it here but good luck to them if they are. 

The MetO are currently forecasting mild into second half of Nov and it would take much stronger signal before they would consider changing that.

If they did though, given how rightly cautious they are of predicting cold or snow so far out, then that would be quite exciting.

 

The MetO will have been following the theme of the last EC32 plus their own model generation - there might be a change of emphasis from todays run - we'll see if the wording changes tomorrow.

 

Only E. European coverage but you can see what last run was indicating on the Imgur screen capture.

 

http://i.imgur.com/pEfkIl3.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Well it finally looks like we may have something to look forward too as mid November approaches. Certainly some eye candy showing up on latest gfs run but at the moment its deepest fi so let's see what the met office think over the coming week. Certainly seems like interesting times ahead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

all i say  for the east coast fantasy world  could make the  coldies  happy  i know it wont happen but its  nice to think it  could!!!

post-4629-0-47696900-1446491992_thumb.pn

post-4629-0-25780800-1446492007_thumb.pn

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

Not meaning to ruin the Spirit here but this "cold" weather is in the deepest parts of FL plus it has only GFS going for cold weather with little to no support else where.

Even if it gets to the "reliable" timeframe it has to the tendency to downgrade a cold plunge to a mere few hours spectacle snap...may I add most of the time..

I can understand that some are excited and are rather please about colder weather however unless it gets support from other major models and to a closer timeframe I think some people are going to be disappointed

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This evening's GEFs 6-10 anomaly has the HP centred Iberia with the trough NW adjacent to Greenland. Thus the surface analysis still has most of the UK in the anticyclonic SW/W flow flow with just the far north feeling the effects of passing depressions. Although the 11-15 flattens the pattern as it always has a tendency to do it still has HP the south with a flatter orientation and a weak trough NW around Iceland. The result of this is a more zonal westerly flow with much of the UK still under the higher pressure but obviously the detail will have to wait to be resolved as there will be latitudinal fluctuations between the colder and warmer air. This is actually not a million miles away from the pattern change indicated on the last EC32 update for around the 15th.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

post-12275-0-52468000-1446493677_thumb.p

post-12275-0-13750700-1446493686_thumb.p

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

What is interest is the heights that look like building up and above Northern Canada, whilst we are seeing various outcomes nearer to home over the last few runs the theme over there is consistent...This area normally gains lower heights at this time of year so maybe a good sign...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

What is interest is the heights that look like building up and above Northern Canada, whilst we are seeing various outcomes nearer to home over the last few runs the theme over there is consistent...This area normally gains lower heights at this time of year so maybe a good sign...

Yes Ali, this is something I have noticed too on the GFS over the last couple of days. A welcome change to the last couple of years. Something else I have noticed over the last 12 years of model watching is the GFS has a very good knack of spotting a pattern change at 2 weeks out. I think we should be keeping a very close and positive eye on this.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z shows increasingly unsettled weather on the way this week but then high pressure builds from the south with southern parts of the uk gradually becoming more settled again during the weekend and more especially early next week. The gfs has been great to look at today for all the coldies among us and I really hope it's on to something very good for the second half of november. :)

post-4783-0-87058100-1446495227_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-95112900-1446495238_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-43689100-1446495248_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-59956800-1446495257_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Slow Changes across the nation...But The Change is Coming...The Euro High will Die in the coming days..... :)  :)  :)

post-6830-0-32314400-1446496538_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-96047000-1446496602_thumb.pn

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

NOAA not dissimilar to the GEFS in keeping the HP orientated east/west south of the UK leaving most of the latter under the westerly anticyclonic influence with the trough situated NW over Iceland. The general inference from this would be for the depressions to run NE probably impacting the north of the country only.

 

post-12275-0-24463800-1446497740_thumb.g

post-12275-0-14957100-1446497745_thumb.g

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

It is certainly starting to look like we will see more changeable conditions as the jet strengthens across the Atlantic and eventually the UK, this will put us in a more cyclonic west/south west flow.

EDM1-144.GIF?02-0

EDM1-192.GIF?02-0

EDM1-240.GIF?02-0

It will take some time for the south to see some significant rain. This ties with the long range models (ECM and CFS).

Beyond this, the GFS ens do suggest a cool down, but it is too far away to really get any real grip on what will happen. The CFS ens output suggests a deepening trough just west of the UK beyond mid-month with unsettled conditions and temperatures a little lower than what we have recently seen. This would be fairly similar perhaps to the outputs seen at the metoffice and hence their forecasts.

As for Canadian blocking, well that doesn't surprise me as that fits well with the consensus in respect to the winter forecasts over north America.

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Reason being the gfs goes out to T384 where as other models don't....

 

 

The GEM ens does,and paints a similar long range picture to the gefs (p)

 

post-2839-0-52813000-1446498374_thumb.pn

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

GFS'

Although "notorious" for its favouring

of flatening/mobile progression.

its pertubations CANNOT be ignored!

When pattern change is afoot'

The it is'nt unusal in becoming awaken, from its sleep.....

In being the dark horse of future trend setting !

One example of many of possible scenario 's of possible to start the format.

post-18793-0-05603600-1446498688_thumb.p

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Finally some signs that the Euro high will weaken in the outlook but no sign of a major pattern change to colder conditions.

 

Although the GFS and ECM means are similar at T240hrs the operationals do show some differences with the ECM building in high pressure to the e/ne.

 

Upstream the patterns pretty flat so not much help there in terms of those looking for something colder.  Given the expected upstream pattern the ECM at day 10 is more interesting than the GFS.

 

I think the issue is of course whether the trough energy just spills over the top of that high or whether some disrupts se.

 

In terms of the longer range ECM ensembles, there is a drop off in temperatures towards mid month, nothing majorly cold though so I think its safe to rule out anything much more seasonal till at least mid-month.

 

Although a few GFS operationals have shown something a bit more wintry in nature this has been well into FI and really not to be trusted.

 

So I think we're in a holding pattern just waiting for the Euro high to actually weaken and see where we go from there, at least we haven't wasted any good wintry synoptics in terms of these showing up too early so although I can understand the frustration of watching the Euro high put its feet up and watch countless box sets we're only into early November. Plenty of time to see a change and at least these mild conditions have come with plenty of dry weather which is preferable IMO to rain and gales!

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...