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Kiwi

The South China Sea

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Everyone seems to have laid claim to the  scattered islets and reefs of the South China Sea and tensions seems to be ratcheting up

 

The US are insistent that they will use aircraft and naval vessels to assert freedom of navigation in the region. The sailing of USS Lassen close to one of these artificial islands is what has provoked the latest excited reaction from China.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/28/china-not-frightened-fight-war-south-china-sea-uss-lassen

 Meanwhile,  China has stated that it will defend what it considers its territorial limit. Will the Chinese  blink and “lose face†or will the United States back off, displaying similar resolve to what it has shown in the Middle East and Ukraine?

 

The situation is complicated, the stakes are high and it seems to me that the chance of a miscalculation by one of the sides is increasingly likely. How will this long running dispute be resolved?

 

post-1808-0-55308000-1446020283_thumb.jp 

 

post-1808-0-62690400-1446020323_thumb.jp

 

 

The Claims

China claims almost the whole area based on historical records of the Han (110AD) and Ming (1403-1433AD) dynasties. Taiwan bases its claim on the same historical records. China forcibly seized the Paracel islands from Vietnam in 1974 ( http://vnafmamn.com/paracel.html )

The Philippines claims on the Spratly Islands are based on proximity and its Exclusive Economic zone.

Malaysia makes  a similar claim as does Vietnam and Brunei. Japan is also increasingly becoming embroiled in the situation and is now supplying military equipment to both the Philippines and Vietnam.The United States contends that the South China Sea is international water, and sovereignty in the area should be determined by the United Nations Convention on Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS). UNCLOS states that countries can’t claim sovereignty over any land masses that are submerged at high tide, or that were previously submerged but have been raised above high tide level by construction.

 

Why?

Control of the South China Sea would allow China to restrict navigation through a major trade route  and the area is also thought to contain large oil and natural gas reserves.

 

Island Building

Haphazard Island building in the South China Sea, and construction on existing islands by Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan, has been going on for decades.  China has now joined in, but as might be expected their efforts have dwarfed those of what has occurred previously. In the last 18 months, China has constructed more new island surface than all the other nations have ever constructed. China have also installed  military equipment and even a  3,000m paved runway suitable for large aircraft.

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Beijing vows to respond to US ships in South China Sea.

“We would urge the US not to continue down the wrong path. But if the US side does continue, we will take all necessary measures according to the need,†Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Colonel Yang Yujun said in a statement released on Thursday.

Yang further described as “rock-solid†Beijing’s resolve to protect its national sovereignty and security interests.

http://presstv.ir/Detail/2015/10/29/435480/China-US-Yang-Yujun-South-China-Sea

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The UN is powerless against a superpower which is determined to get what it wants, as was the League of Nations before it.

There's going to be a lot of sabre rattling before this one sorts itself out.

On the plus side, the Chinese are creating valuable nesting habitat for pelagic bird species like albatrosses.

Every cloud...

Edited by Dougal

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On 11/2/2015 at 8:45 PM, Mokidugway said:

I don't think China will push the USA to far ,their military machine is vastly inferior to the US ...

Contrary to their pledge not to militarize the islands, China are now reported to be installing surface to air missiles.

 http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-missiles-idUKKCN0VP2VT

chinese_hq-9_launcher.thumb.jpg.9e028ba1

http://uk.businessinsider.com/china-has-deployed-8-surface-to-air-missiles-on-a-contested-island-in-the-south-china-sea-2016-2?r=US&IR=T

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Satellite photos of new Chinese surface- air mssile system on Woody Island

south-china-sea-focal-point-02-18-2016-3south-china-sea-focal-point-02-18-2016-6

south-china-sea-focal-point-02-18-2016-4south-china-sea-focal-point-02-18-2016-5

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Julia Macfarlane ‏@juliamacfarlane  12m12 minutes ago

Indonesian navy fires on Chinese boat, injures fisherman - Beijing ministry

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/indonesian-navy-fires-on/2885822.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

Julia Macfarlane ‏@juliamacfarlane  6m6 minutes ago

In fact look here how far the Indonesian islands are from China and China still contests the waters around them

ClUE_0aWkAARkOO.jpg

Julia Macfarlane ‏@juliamacfarlane  5m5 minutes ago

Few years ago Indo neutral on Sth China Sea dispute and offered to be interlocutor. Now hardly anyone in SEA not taken stance against China

Edited by lfcdude

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I spoke to a couple of natives about politics while I was in China (they were understandably hesitant to do so, given that I was a foreigner) and they seemed absolutely convinced that the Senkaku Islands were rightfully Chinese.

 

Edit: I'm aware that they are not a part of the South Chinese Sea but I'm assuming this is not being discussed in another thread?

Edited by NorthernRab

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http://thesaker.is/chinas-president-xi-jinping-speech-on-the-95th-anniversary-of-the-communist-party-of-china/

Chinese President XI Jinping in his speech on Friday the 1st of July, noted the strategic need for an alliance between Russia and China, which he believes will determine the future world order.

“The world is on the brink of radical changes. We see how the EU is gradually crumbling and the US economy is collapsing. This will end in a new world order. So, in 10 years we will have a new world order unlike anything before in which the key will be the Union of Russia and China,” said XI.

In his opinion the relations of Russia and China should not be confined to the economic relations, these countries should create an alternative military alliance.

“We are now witnessing the aggressive actions by the United States against Russia and China. I believe that Russia and China may form an alliance before which NATO will be powerless and it will put the end to the imperialist aspirations of the West,” he said.

Wow.

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Japan and the Philippines have also signed a NATO like agreement, it's also widely expected that Japan will rearm quite significantly. 

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So Nippon Upper house elections tomorrow. If Abe Wins then expect the we wont fight abroad mandate after ww2 to be lifted and their will defend islands that china r going to claimb :)

 

Nippon and Asia Need World Help to stop Chinese aggression. Even a passive nation is going to re write laws.. To confront China 

Edited by lfcdude

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Fantastic result Nippon will be able to confront Chinese aggression and start making pacts to defend islands

Japan's ruling bloc wins landslide in upper house election

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-election-idUSKCN0ZQ010?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5782874504d30136aad28a80&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

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On 7/5/2016 at 23:10, summer blizzard said:

Japan and the Philippines have also signed a NATO like agreement, it's also widely expected that Japan will rearm quite significantly. 

Over the weekend two Chinese vessels have rammed and sunk a Vietnamese fishing boat near the Paracel  Islands.

The International tribunal at the Hague is due to deliver its verdict tomorrow on the case concerning maritime disputes between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea although  China is refusing to acknowledge the validity of the tribunal. http://time.com/4400671/philippines-south-china-sea-arbitration-case/ 

Against this backdrop and as part of their "Nato like agreement" Japan and the Philippines will carry out joint naval exercises the day after the verdict is delivered.

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