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knocker

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala

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There is probably a thread on this already that I've missed.

Invest 94A could well become a powerful cyclone in Arabian Sea.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

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JTWC has upgraded this system to a 35kt tropical cyclone. 04A has a well defined LLCC with increasing convection and tightly wound banding features. Shear is low, waters warm, and outflow good. Based on this, and the well organised structure of 04A, rapid intensification is a possibility. A general west to west-northwesterly track is expected as 04A is steered by ridging to the north, and a landfall is expected near the Oman/Yemen border, potentially as a significant cyclone. One to watch!

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IMD has named the storm Chapala. In the latest advisory, JTWC have increased the winds to 55kts, indicating that rapid intensification has occured. An eye appears to be forming in the central dense overcast, meaning the rapid strengthening episode is probably not done yet.

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HWRF hurricane model very intense Cat 4+ 933 mb in only 72 hrs.

Chart weatherbell
 

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Chapala has continued to intensify. Winds are now at 75kts acoording to JTWC. Futher intensification is expected as outflow is good, shear is low and waters very warm. As Chapala approaches the Arabian peninsula, it will weaken a bit as drier air is drawn into the circulation. However, landfall as a significant cyclone still appears likely.

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Must be pretty unusual to see a tropical storm of this strength hitting the Arabian Peninsula, as they normally track further north into Pakistan or NW India. Been a funny year for tropical storms, unusual tracks for strong category storms.

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Indeed, and if it does reach the 130kt peak forecast, it'll be a rare beast indeed for this part of the world.

Rapid intensification has continued. Winds are now at 95kts, and Chapala is sporting a well defined eye.

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Clear eye and cold convection .satellite estimates 140-knots (T 7.0) Category 5

 

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JTWC have gone with a 130kt cat 4 intensity for now, but forecast Chapala to reach category 5 status soon. The tropical cyclones certainly have been crazy lately! I, again, did not expect such quick intensification.

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Wow, how incredible, unfortunately this means flooding for Yemen and maybe Saudi Arabia. I have never even heard of storms in that part of the world before, I wonder if its something to do with the strong El Nino? 

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Chapala failed to make cat 5 as it weakened soon after I posted. Winds are still at 115kts however, a cat 4. Track forecasts have been constantly trending west, so landfall is expected in Yemen proper now rather than the Oman border. Further weakening will occur before landfall due to dry air entrainment.

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Tropical Cyclone Chapala, the second strongest storm on record for the Arabian Sea, is holding its own as it continues plowing westward toward Yemen. As of 8:00 am EDT Saturday, Chapala’s top sustained winds were down to 135 mph, at the other end of the Category 4 scale from the peak of 155 mph observed on Friday. After its structure was somewhat disrupted on Friday, perhaps by dry air intruding into its circulation, Chapala appears to be regrouping, with a solid inner core of convection and a distinct eye 10 miles in diameter.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/category-4-chapala-on-its-way-to-yemen-texas-gasping-after-more-recor

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Its not the speed of the winds that will be the worst issue when it makes landfall on the peninsula, it will be the rain. In part due to the topography of the country the Hurricane will dump an absurd (for Yemen) amount of rain - possibly as much as 5 years worth of rain in 1 day, this is going to cause immense damage and if it was anywhere else the relief planning would already be in full swing.

 

Really has been a weird year for weather, so far.

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Chapala has not weakened much as it approaches Yemen. Winds are still at 105kts a category 3 on the SS scale. The dangerous cyclone is passing just north of Socotra Island and is delivering some really nasty conditions which has already caused fatalities here as Su Campu's post describes. Yemen are in big trouble with this cyclone.

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Some of the wave footage is indeed phenomenal in the coastal areas now. Should make landfall this morning.

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Death toll currently reported at 4, which is remarkable. Flooding and damage is vast. From the records side of things, Chapala is the first cyclone on record to make landfall at hurricane strength on Yemen.

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Chapala leaves a remarkable footprint, cutting through the very warm SST anomaly in the region.

 

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