eastern pacific Major Hurricane Patricia

[Summer Sun]

Mexicans On Alert For 'Catastrophic' Hurricane

 

Mexicans living on the Pacific coastline have been warned of approaching Hurricane Patricia which strengthened into an "extremely dangerous" Category 5 storm late on Thursday.

 

The storm, which was categorised as a hurricane overnight, had winds of about 160 miles per hour (260 km per hour) as it moved toward the north-northwest at 10 mph (16 kph), the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said.

 

The storm - Category 5 is the highest rating possible - is expected to weaken a little before hitting land by Friday afternoon or evening, the Miami-based hurricane centre said.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1574805/mexicans-on-alert-for-catastrophic-hurricane

 

[Summer Sun]

Latest track has Patricia making landfall west of Manzanillo

 

[knocker]

At 06Z

 

[Liam J]

This is going to be utterly devastating. 

 

 

Hurricane Patricia became the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Pacific Ocean late Thursday night less than 200 miles from the coast of Mexico, where residents and authorities are rushing to prepare for what will likely be the strongest hurricane to ever make landfall on that country's Pacific coastline.

The National Hurricane Center released a special advisory at 12:30 a.m. CDT Friday saying Patricia's central pressure had dropped to 892 millibars (26.34 inches of mercury), making it by far the lowest pressure ever measured in a Pacific hurricane. NHC estimated Patricia's maximum sustained winds at 185 mph (295 kph), well above the 157-mph minimum threshold required to make it a Category 5 hurricane.

Amazingly, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance mission responsible for those findings has measured even lower pressures and higher wind speeds since then. At 2:03 a.m. CDT, NHC released a data message reporting that an instrument dropped from the aircraft had measured a pressure of 885 millibars at sea level inside the eye, though not in the exact center.

Shortly before that, winds at flight level (roughly 10,000 feet above the ocean) were measured as high as 221 mph (356 kph) in the eyewall, the zone of powerful winds ringing the clear, relatively calm eye. Hurricane specialist Michael Lowry of The Weather Channel said he believes those may be the highest flight level winds ever recorded by the Hurricane Hunters.

 

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-patricia-mexico-coast 

[Nick F]

 

URPN12 KNHC 230703

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   EP202015

A. 23/06:46:00Z                              Date & time of fix (UTC)

B. 16 deg 33 min N                        Latitude of fix

  105 deg 26 min W                       Longitude of fix

C. 700 mb 2113 m                          Minimum height at 700mb

D. 175 kt                                            Estimate of maximum surface wind

E. 264 deg 5 nm                              Location of D with respect to center fix

F. 358 deg 166 kt                            Maximum flight level wind

G. 264 deg 5 nm                             Location of F with respect to center fix

H. 885 mb                                         Minimum sea level pressure (dropsonde or extrapolated)

I. 12 C / 3073 m                               Max flight level temperature outside center w/ pressure altitude

J. 29 C / 3026 m                              Max flight level temperature inside center w/ pressure altitude

K. 8 C / NA                                        Dewpoint temperature and sea surface temperature inside center

L. CLOSED                                         Eye character

M. C7                                                 Eye shape, orientation, & diameter

N. 12345 / 7                                     Determination of fix/fix level*

O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm                             Accuracy of fix**

P. AF303 0320E PATRICIA OB 19 Remarks

 

 

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 192 KT 053 / 3 NM 06:47:10Z

CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 135 / 41 KT

 

*  Eye shape:  C=circular, CO=concentric, E=elliptical (major axis)

** Determination of fix:  1=aircraft penetration, 2=radar, 3=wind, 4=pressure, 5=temperature

   Fix level:  0=surface, 1=1500ft, 2=200mb, 3=300mb, 4=400mb, 5=500mb, 7=700mb, 8=850mb

 

 

 

Above is the most recent RECON Vortex Data Message decoded from the raw message below:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPPN2.shtml

 

Page 5-7 to 5-8 on the pdf below has a table with a more in depth explanation of the Vortex Data Message:

 

http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/15/pdf/05-chp5.pdf

Edited October 23, 2015 by Nick F

[Liam J]

200mph, 880mb...     

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Wow

 

[Polar Maritime]

That realy does look evil! I just hope people are taking the necessary action over in Mexico.. That is evacuate.

Edited October 23, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Nouska]

While the sats and stats are absolutely staggering, the real story is going to be on the ground.....when have you ever seen a track/intensity such as this.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

 

Utter devastation of unimagineable proportions!!

[lorenzo]

On phone so cannot post but that's the first advisory with sustained winds number beginning with a 2.

The last vortex data message is full of crazy figures, outside temp at 27 degrees... At 9.5k ft.

[Boro Snow]

200mph sustained winds that is incredible what about the gusts, i have a bad feeling about this i just hope the authorities have evacuated the areas concerned 

 

400,000 people live in vulnerable areas in the path of this hurricane mexican authorities have just said   

Edited October 23, 2015 by Boro Snow

[Sainsbo]

Jesus Christ

 

Sustained winds of 200mph makes this the strongest storm worldwide since the beginning of the satellite era. Raw T numbers of T8.3 are being recorded, which is off the scale. Not only that, but the NHC suggest more strengthening is likely. I didn't think we'd see something stronger than Haiyan for a long time..

 

A beast in every way possible. This will be catastrophic

 

[Summer Sun]

Patricia is now 12 to 18 hours from landfall

 

 

Wind speed is 200mph and gusts are 245mph

Edited October 23, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Pipine]

Insane wind speeds.. I can't imagine how terrifying that's going to be on the ground :-(

[Summer Sun]

Landfall currently expected around midnight UK time

[mountain shadow]

Just seen it mentioned on BBC News...

 

GUSTS OF 260MPH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! projected and 600mm of rain.

[bryan629]

What a monster of a storm this is, unbeleivable really. 

 

Anyone care to bookmark this live web cam link from Puerto Vallerta... which "could" lay directly in the eye of the storm. 

 

 

 

[Love Snow]

Wasnt this a tropical storm yesterday?

[Summer Sun]

Wasn't this a tropical storm yesterday?

 

Yep intensified very quickly overnight

[Boro Snow]

Wasnt this a tropical storm yesterday?

yeah it changed to a cat 1 approx 30 hours ago 

[bryan629]

Yep intensified very quickly overnight

According to Michael Fish, a lady did ring in 

[cowdog]

What a monster of a storm this is, unbeleivable really. 

 

Anyone care to bookmark this live web cam link from Puerto Vallerta... which "could" lay directly in the eye of the storm. 

 

_86286547_patricia.png

 

 

 

If this pans out as tracked, don't see how that webcam will survive. Or the Tower blocks its on being anything but a shell.

Seriously hope no TV crew tries to get pictures as it happens as this is one storm where it will be to dangerous for anyone.

[Boro Snow]

photo taken 15 hours ago inside the eye from the navigator 

 

[mountain shadow]

I hope the Mexicans are on top of this and have evacuated everyone inland at least 50 miles from the coast.

 

Wind speeds of this magnitude are quite frankly unfathomable.

 

Edit:

 

Having read this link, it seems the Mexicans don't seem to prepared at all. Tourists are going to wait it out!, I would be getting the hell out of there.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-patricia-strongest-storm-ever-measured-hit-mexico-n449731

Edited October 23, 2015 by mountain shadow

[cowdog]

 

Having read this link, it seems the Mexicans don't seem to prepared at all. Tourists are going to wait it out!, I would be getting the hell out of there.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-patricia-strongest-storm-ever-measured-hit-mexico-n449731

 

Been reading the same elsewhere. This is a disaster, its a major holiday area and no way to get people to safety and even if there was a lot of them seem to be saying they will ride it out - which is kind of difficult in a category 3+ storm, never mind a 200+mph monster.