eastern pacific Major Hurricane Patricia

[Somerset Squall]

The twentieth tropical depression of the eastern Pacific season has formed in the east of the basin, located in the Gulf Of Tehuantepec. Winds are at 30kts. 20E is characterised by increasing convection over the LLCC and formative banding features. As 20E moves west, conditions support intensification, perhaps even rapid intensification as shear is low, waters very warm and moisture in the region high. NHC indicate an 85kt peak, but this could be a conservative peak estimate.

A westward track is expected at first as the depression feels the influence of a ridge to the north. This ridge is expected to push eastwards, and 20E will respond by turning to the northwest then north along it's western flank, toward the coast. The timing is uncertain, but southwest Mexico look to be at threat of a potentially strong landfalling hurricane later this week. Definitely one to watch.

[Somerset Squall]

20E has become Tropical Storm Patricia, with winds of 35kts. Forecast is largely unchanged from before.

[Somerset Squall]

Patricia has become a category 1 hurricane, with winds of 65kts. After a lull in organisation, Patricia has really taken off since yesterday evening. Further strengthening is expected, and Patricia is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Patricia is intensifying rapidly. Winds are up to 85kts, a category 2 hurricane. Based on latest satellite imagery, Patricia may well be a major hurricane in the next advisory. The hurricane has developed a pinhole eye, embedded in a very solid central dense overcast, flanked by very strong banding. This is going to have a major impact on Mexico.

[Somerset Squall]

Advisory just come out upgrading Patricia to a 115kt, category 4 major hurricane, based on RECON data. This beast is going mental! And on course for land. This looks very dangerous indeed. Further intensification is expected as Patricia remains in low shear and waters of 30C for the next 24hrs.

[Boro Snow]

Advisory just come out upgrading Patricia to a 115kt, category 4 major hurricane, based on RECON data. This beast is going mental! And on course for land. This looks very dangerous indeed. Further intensification is expected as Patricia remains in low shear and waters of 30C for the next 24hrs.

Yes lets hope everybody has already taken heed of the warnings and has taken the necessary precautions because this will hit as a cat 4 hurricane sometime tomorrow afternoon looking at the current projections 

[joggs]

Sorry for this inept post lol.But thus seems to have intensified so quickly.Has this got anything to do with el nino,with it been East Pacific?

[Boro Snow]

Sorry for this inept post lol.But thus seems to have intensified so quickly.Has this got anything to do with el nino,with it been East Pacific?

i think its just due to the favourable conditions its currently passing through maybe be wrong though 

[Somerset Squall]

Patricia has intensified very quickly due to a very favourable environment and sea temperatures of about 31°C. Sea temperatures this high over such a large area are probably influenced by El Nino.

El Nino is probably to blame for us having a record number of cat 4/5's across the entire Pacific for 2015.

Edited October 22, 2015 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Scary. It's clear Patricia is still intensifying. I really wouldn't be surprised to see Patricia make category 5 status.

[Nouska]

Phenomenal presentation and intensification - that's one solid and dense overcast.

 

[Vorticity0123]

And Patricia has made it to catgory 5 status, with 140 knots sustained winds, what a beast. Since the last advisory at 3:00 AM UTC, it appears that even then Patricia has continued to strengthen.

 

RBTOP-enhanced satellite image loop of Patricia (click to animate). Source: NOAA.

 

This system just matches horrible perfectionism... Prayers go out for the people in Southwest Mexico.

 

Source:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/20E/20E_floater.html

[knocker]

Aircraft measured 892 mb pressure

[Somerset Squall]

Oh my god! Patricia has become the most intense hurricane in recorded history for the Eastern Pacific. Winds have been measured at 160kts, and a central pressure of 892mb has been recorded. This surpasses the previous record holder Linda in 1997, which had a 160kt, 900mb peak. I thought Patricia would become a category 5, but it didn't even cross my mind that it would become the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record! Patricia is forecast to make landfall at category 5 intensity too, a rare feat for this basin. Absolutely incredible. Patricia has gone from tropical storm to 160kt category 5 hurricane in a little over 24hrs. When I posted this time yesterday, Patricia was a 65kt cat 1 hurricane. That is truly explosive intensification. I'm blown away.

My thoughts go out to everyone in the path of this monster.

[Nick F]

This is going to be catastrophic for SW Mexico when it makes landfall later today, forecast advisory has gusts to 195 knts or 224 mph! Sustained 160 knts or 185 mph INLAND later:

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0530Z 16.5N 105.3W  160 KT 185 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W  160 KT 185 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W  160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND
36H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 105.3W AT 23/0530Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  892 MB
EYE DIAMETER   5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 120SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT

 

Central pressure estimated at 892mb which breaks the record for the lowest pressure of an Eastern Pacific Hurricane

[Somerset Squall]

RECON going for another entry, pressure still seems to be falling, I don't think Patricia is done strengthening yet...

[lorenzo]

Eric Blake has been tweeting overnight on Patricia all sorts of ridiculous readings coming on.

Crazy synoptics and also cat 5 landfall which is devastating.

Winds 175 sustained peaking 225. Frightening really.

[lorenzo]

Patricia deepened 10mb in 2 hours while plane sitting on tarmac in between sorties.

[Somerset Squall]

Pressure has fallen to 880mb according to the NHC ATCF, with sustained winds of 175kts. This makes Patricia the most intense hurricane ever observed in the western hemipshere, and the first tropical cyclone on record to have winds CONFIRMED at this strength (175kts). RECON are leaving Patricia now (probably running low on fuel) but Patricia could still be intensifying.

Edited October 23, 2015 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Also, this is the fastest deepening tropical cyclone on record in the satellite era, 980mb this time yesterday to 880mb now.

[joggs]

Shocking how this is unravelling.

[Cloud 10]

God help them.

 

[knocker]

The final vortex for the history books- record low pressure (880-881)

 

A couple of quotes

 

Can quibble about a mb here or there, but basically #Patricia just deepened 10mb in 2 hours (!) while the plane was on station.

 

Again, not as sexy as the pressure or the wind, but that last sonde just measured a 32C temp at 743mb!!!

Edited October 23, 2015 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

So is this a 'Grey Swan' event in the making?

[Pipine]

Terrifiying..The speed that its developed will have surprised everyone, the authorities sound like they're only just starting to take it seriously.