November 2015 -- Your C.E.T. forecasts

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday's CET was 14.4C, (provisionally) breaking the previous record of 13.4C, set way back in 1772.

 

The minimum today is 10.9C, while maxima look like reaching the low 16s, so an increase to 11.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.7C to the 8th (12.2: 3.5) 

11.7C to the 9th (11.8: 3.7) [Record High: 12.5C]

11.9C to the 10th (13.7: 5.8] [Record High: 13.4C]

12.1C to the 11th (14.3: 6.0) [Record High: 13.0C]

11.9C to the 12th (10.1: 1.9) 

11.8C to the 13th (10.1: 2.9)

11.6C to the 14th (8.8: 2.0)

11.5C to the 15th (10.9: 4.1)

11.5C to the 16th (11.6: 4.8]

 

To beat the daily record today, the maxima needs to be at least 16.0C, which certainly seems achievable.

 

That value to the 16th would be the 2nd mildest on record, beaten by 1938 which averaged 11.9C to the 16th (and then averaged 6.6C for the rest of the month).

[Timmytour]

Not at all a fan of this weather......but  at least if it continues I might end up with my closest ever CET guess
 

Predicting an unseasonably warm and exceptionally wet November coming in at 9.2C

Edited November 8, 2015 by Timmytour

[Roger J Smith]

Going into last year's 31st of October, 1772 had three records, now it probably has zero (31 Oct blown away in 2014, now 6-7 Nov also gone probably). Maybe it will hold on to one after corrections.

[Don]

Going into last year's 31st of October, 1772 had three records, now it probably has zero (31 Oct blown away in 2014, now 6-7 Nov also gone probably). Maybe it will hold on to one after corrections.

 

1772, please step down to the horridly mild November 2015!

Edited November 8, 2015 by Don

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.6C big difference which may indicate a big downward adjustment at the end of the month.

[Summer Sun]

11.6c to the 7th

 

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday is down as 13.4C, so provisionally equal to the daily record, though that may well change after corrections are applied.

 

Anyway, the minimum today is 17.1C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 15s, so we might actually see a drop to 11.5C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.6C to the 9th (11.7: +3.6) [Record High: 12.5C]

11.8C to the 10th (13.8: +5.9) [Record High: 13.4C]

12.0C to the 11th (13.8: +5.5) [Record High: 13.0C]

11.9C to the 12th (10.8: +2.6)

11.6C to the 13th (8.5: +1.3)

11.4C to the 14th (8.7: +1.9)

11.4C to the 15th (10.9: +4.0)

11.3C to the 16th (10.0: +3.2)

11.1C to the 17th (8.2: +1.8]

 

Another 3 days of potentially record breaking November warmth. Things then turning a good deal cooler after the 12th, but still well above the 81-10 average.

[Methuselah]

Gawd! My, on the warm side, 8.3C is looking a tad low...

[Costa Del Fal]

Indeed even my 8.8c is starting to look comparitively freezing in relative terms lol.

[Relativistic]

I'm starting to think the 1994 record may go already.

[Summer Sun]

11.5c to the 8th

 

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

2.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 7.8C while the maximum should be in the low 15s, so we'll probably remain on 11.5C on tomorrows update, and about 1C off the daily record.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.7C to the 10th (13.7: +5.8] [Record High: 13.4C]

11.9C to the 11th (13.2: +4.9) [Record High: 13.0C]

11.7C to the 12th (10.4: +2.2)

11.5C to the 13th (8.7: +1.5)

11.4C to the 14th (9.9: +3.1)

11.4C to the 15th (11.7: +4.9)

11.4C to the 16th (11.4: +4.6)

11.5C to the 17th (12.7: +6.3) [Record High: 13.1C]

11.6C to the 18th (13.7: +7.0) [Record High: 12.2C]

 

So, it now looks like 1 or 2 slightly less mild days towards the end of the week before the huge positive anomalies return.

Edited November 9, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[The PIT]

Funnily enough we droped at bit down to 10.5C. Temps still rising here so expecting a bump upwards. At this rate November will be warmer than October which will a first for us.

[Milhouse]

 

11.5C to the 13th (8.7: +1.5)

 

And Friday is supposed to be the coolest day of the Autumn so far. Still 1.5c above average.

[Summer of 95]

What's the chances of November ending up warmer than May? Needs to be 10.9 or more. That's never happened before as far as I know. That would give 2015 a notable statistic.

Edited November 9, 2015 by Summer of 95

[Roger J Smith]

Looking at the 12z GFS, the mean by the 18th still appears likely to be around 11.5, but the mean for the period 19th to 25th appears to be a more normal 6.5 or so. That would bring the CET down fairly steadily to 10.1 C and it would no doubt fall further from there, then you have downward corrections to consider. I would put the chances of a record high finish at under 50-50 and as for 10.9, really unlikely.

 

Now, I would not be surprised if that colder turn fades out as we've seen on other occasions, but let's say the perod 19th to 30th averaged 8 deg, then the month would finish at 10.1 and tie with 1994, and that's before downward corrections.

 

[Summer Sun]

11.5c to the 9th

 

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 11.4C, while the maximum looks like reaching the low 16s, so an increase to 11.7C is likely on tomorrows update. To set a new record for the daily mean, a maximum of just 15.5C or more is required.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.9C to the 11th (13.4: +5.1) [Record High: 13.0C]

11.8C to the 12th (10.8: +2.6)

11.5C to the 13th (8.2: +1.0)

11.5C to the 14th (10.5: +3.7)

11.5C to the 15th (12.1: +5.3)

11.6C to the 16th (12.6: +5.8] [Record High: 13.4C]

11.4C to the 17th (9.1: +2.7)

11.4C to the 18th (10.4: +3.7)

11.3C to the 19th (10.8: +4.4)

 

No sign of any average temps, let alone cool temperatures. The record mildest to the 19th is 11.4C, in 1938, but that year dropped quickly to 9.4C over the rest of the month.

 

Below is the cumulative CET values for the top 5 warmest Novembers, and the 2015 values to the 9th and forecast to the 19th.

 

[reef]

 

The minimum today is 11.4C, while the maximum looks like reaching the low 16s, so an increase to 11.7C is likely on tomorrows update. To set a new record for the daily mean, a maximum of just 15.5C or more is required.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.9C to the 11th (13.4: +5.1) [Record High: 13.0C]

11.8C to the 12th (10.8: +2.6)

11.5C to the 13th (8.2: +1.0)

11.5C to the 14th (10.5: +3.7)

11.5C to the 15th (12.1: +5.3)

11.6C to the 16th (12.6: +5.8] [Record High: 13.4C]

11.4C to the 17th (9.1: +2.7)

11.4C to the 18th (10.4: +3.7)

11.3C to the 19th (10.8: +4.4)

 

No sign of any average temps, let alone cool temperatures. The record mildest to the 19th is 11.4C, in 1938, but that year dropped quickly to 9.4C over the rest of the month.

 

Below is the cumulative CET values for the top 5 warmest Novembers, and the 2015 values to the 9th and forecast to the 19th.

 

 

Tomorrow's minimum will likely be higher than the record mean as today's min of 11.4C will be from 09:00 yesterday morning before the warmer air properly arrived.

 

We could potentially have a mean of around 15.0C in the CET zone tomorrow depending on how cool it is tonight and if the cold front stays north of the CET zone.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Tomorrow's minimum will likely be higher than the record mean as today's min of 11.4C will be from 09:00 yesterday morning before the warmer air properly arrived.

 

We could potentially have a mean of around 15.0C in the CET zone tomorrow depending on how cool it is tonight and if the cold front stays north of the CET zone.

 

The minimum tonight is forecast to get down to about 12C, while the maximum tomorrow doesn't look like climbing above 15C. So another record is likely, but not by much.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 10.7C could be 11C tomorrow depending on tonight's min.

[Man With Beard]

Re: BFTV above: if its 11.3 by the 19th, of the top of my head that would mean the rest of the month would need to average below 8 to get the monthly mean below 10. By that stage it would be highly unlikely to go below 9.

[Timmytour]

Predicting an unseasonably warm and exceptionally wet November coming in at 9.2C

Dammit..... I was going to go for 10c but thought that would be TOO unseasonably warm!!!

[Summer Sun]

11.7c to the 10th

 

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average

 

3.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday was another provisional record, at 13.7C, beating the previous record of 13.4C set in 1977.

 

The minimum today, at 13.2C, is the highest of the month so far and warmest since August 26th. Even more remarkable, today's minimum is (provisionally) already warmer than the daily record mean for Nov 11th, which is 13.0C set back in just 2005!

With maxima likely to be around the high 14s, we should see an increase to 11.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

11.9C to the 12th (11.1: +2.9)

11.6C to the 13th (8.4: +1.2)

11.5C to the 14th (10.4: +3.6)

11.5C to the 15th (12.1: +5.3)

11.5C to the 16th (10.5: +3.7)

11.3C to the 17th (9.1: +2.7)

11.2C to the 18th (8.0: +1.3)

10.9C to the 19th (6.3: -0.1)

10.7C to the 20th (7.6: +1.4)

 

It seems like the run of record breaking mild might be over after today, with the first hints of some close to average temps creeping into FI/medium range area.

Edited November 12, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid