November 2015 -- Your C.E.T. forecasts

[Midlands Ice Age]

7.5C for me please ....

 

MIA

[March Blizzard]

I'll go 7.7C please

[reef]

The 9th warmest in the CET series:

 

8.8C

 

I've got a feeling it could be another 10C+ month though.

[AderynCoch]

7.1

 

Destroy that Euro High.

[Roger J Smith]

If you're wondering what spots are open in the table for a unique guess, these are not used yet in the range from 3.6 to 10.5 (range of forecasts so far) ...

 

9.6 to 10.4

 

9.3, 9.4

 

9.1

 

8.7

 

8.2

 

6.5, 6.6

 

6.1, 6.2

 

5.7

 

5.0 to 5.5

 

4.1 to 4.7

 

3.7 to 3.9

 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

 

Look for the table of entries over in the competition scoring thread after midnight, I have it ready to post except for the entries yet to be posted.

[DAVID SNOW]

Thanks Roger.

 

 

Try 8.7 ta.

 

Just in case this post vanishes (gremlins, Halloween) I will pm you J , thanks

Edited October 31, 2015 by DAVID SNOW

[feb1991blizzard]

9.3 please.

 

We are certainly paying the price for Nov 2010, another scorcher likely, ever since 2010 we seem to have nothing but searing heat and BBQ weather in November.

[Weather-history]

9.3 please.

We are certainly paying the price for Nov 2010, another scorcher likely, ever since 2010 we seem to have nothing but searing heat and BBQ weather in November.

I am assuming it's tongue in cheek this. It's that or a load of tut. November 2013 was actually below the 1961-90 average and November 2012 was actually below the 1971-2000 average, Edited October 31, 2015 by Weather-history

[Great Plum]

7.8c please

[easy-oasy]

I'll try my arm with 8.2...

[Duncan McAlister]

8.0 for me please.

[J10]

7.0c

Thanks Roger.

 

 

Try 8.7 ta.

 

Just in case this post vanishes (gremlins, Halloween) I will pm you J , thanks

 

8.7c accepted from David Snow.

[Daniel*]

Changed my mind 6.6C please.

[Don]

I think our run of near average to cooler than average months will come to an abrupt end in November.  I'll go with 8.4C, please.

[davehsug]

8.7c please

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts here:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/page-6#entry3276858

 

75 forecasts so far, median value 7.6 C.

 

 

You can still enter until the end of 3rd November under increasing time penalty.

[Stef]

8.2 thank you

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's what the 06z GFS shows for the first 10 days of the month

 

12.0C to the 1st (12.0: +2.6)

12.1C to the 2nd (12.2: +3.2)

11.5C to the 3rd (10.4: +1.4)

11.6C to the 4th (11.9: +3.4)

11.7C to the 5th (12.1: +3.8]

12.1C to the 6th (13.8: +5.6) [Record high: 13.4C]

12.6C to the 7th (15.5: +7.2) [Record high: 13.4C]

12.5C to the 8th (11.7: +3.0)

12.1C to the 9th (9.5: +1.4)

12.1C to the 10th (11.9: +4.0)

 

Close to record mild for the start of the month. The latest a daily CET of 15.0C or more has been recorded is November 5th so the forecast for the 7th is quite interesting. The graph below shows the rolling average CET for the years with the warmest first 10 days, and the forecast 2015.

 

 

 

 

[Gael_Force]

November, like July, kicks off the month with a new monthly maximum record. Will it follow suit in getting close to minimum records by months end?

[Relativistic]

This month is looking atrocious already. I'd love another seasonal November like 2012 or 2013, or better still a really cold one. I've been playing football today and this is the hottest I have felt all Autumn! And it's November!!

[seabreeze86]

sorry a bit late 8.9 plz

[March Blizzard]

Here's what the 06z GFS shows for the first 10 days of the month

 

12.0C to the 1st (12.0: +2.6)

12.1C to the 2nd (12.2: +3.2)

11.5C to the 3rd (10.4: +1.4)

11.6C to the 4th (11.9: +3.4)

11.7C to the 5th (12.1: +3.8]

12.1C to the 6th (13.8: +5.6) [Record high: 13.4C]

12.6C to the 7th (15.5: +7.2) [Record high: 13.4C]

12.5C to the 8th (11.7: +3.0)

12.1C to the 9th (9.5: +1.4)

12.1C to the 10th (11.9: +4.0)

 

Close to record mild for the start of the month. The latest a daily CET of 15.0C or more has been recorded is November 5th so the forecast for the 7th is quite interesting. The graph below shows the rolling average CET for the years with the warmest first 10 days, and the forecast 2015.

 

Wow, that's some anomoly on the 6th/7th, a value more typical of June or September. Rolling averages above 12C this time of year just looks wrong.

[Roger J Smith]

CET November 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2014 extremes

______________________________________________________

 

 

Date ____ CET mean __ CET cum ____ MAX _________ MIN

 

01 Nov ___ 9.5 ______ 9.5 ________ 13.5 (1894,1982) __1.5 (1836)
02 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 14.3 (1821) ______ 0.5 (1880)
03 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 15.0 (1996) ______ 1.9 (1820)
04 Nov ___ 8.5 ______ 9.0 ________ 14.2 (1946) ______ 0.8 (1845&1848)
05 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.9 ________ 15.4 (1938) ______ 0.8 (1802)

06 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1772) ______ 0.6 (1868)
07 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1772) _____ -0.6 (1791)
08 Nov ___ 8.7 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1852) _____ -1.2 (1812)
09 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.6 ________ 12.5 (1988) _____ -0.5 (1921)
10 Nov ___ 7.9 ______ 8.6 ________ 13.4 (1977) ______ 0.1 (1812)

11 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.0 (2005) ______ 0.3 (1828)
12 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.8 (1938,1947)_ -1.4 (1919)
13 Nov ___ 7.2 ______ 8.4 ________ 14.6 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1862)
14 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.3 ________ 13.4 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1925)
15 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.2 ________ 13.5 (1821) _____ -2.1 (1965)

 

16 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.1 ________ 13.4 (1997) _____ -2.9 (1901)
17 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 8.0 ________ 13.1 (1997) _____ -2.0 (1841)
18 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.2 (1978) _____ -1.6 (1887)
19 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.7 (1994) _____ -2.1 (1815)
20 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.8 ________ 12.8 (2009) _____ -1.2 (1829)

21 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.7 ________ 13.7 (1947) _____ -1.4 (1880)
22 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.6 ________ 14.4 (1947) _____ -2.3 (1773)
23 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.5 ________ 13.3 (1947) _____ -4.2 (1858)
24 Nov ___ 5.9 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.7 (1980) _____ -4.6 (1904)
25 Nov ___ 6.3 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.1 (1964) _____ -1.5 (1923)

26 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.3 ________ 12.1 (1983) _____ -1.7 (1904)
27 Nov ___ 6.0 ______ 7.3 ________ 11.3 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1915)
28 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.0 (1828) _____ -4.0 (2010)
29 Nov ___ 5.5 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.2 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1801)
30 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.1 ________ 12.4 (2001) _____ -1.7 (1973)

_________________________________________________________________

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to the 1st

 

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

10.2c to the 2nd

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average