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Roger J Smith

November 2015 -- Your C.E.T. forecasts

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November CET means and trivia

15.4 ... warmest day (5th, 1938)
14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)

10.1 ... warmest Nov 1994

9.6 ... second warmest Nov 2011
9.5 ... third warmest Nov 1818
9.4 ... fourth warmest Nov 1938
9.3 ... fifth warmest Nov 1743

 

8.6 ... tied 10th warmest Nov 2014

7.4 .... ---- mean of 2001-2014 ----
7.1 .... ---- mean of 1981-2010 ----

6.9 .... ---- mean of 1971-2000 ----

6.8 ... ... ... ... 2012 average
6.6 .... ---- mean of 1961-1990 ----
6.5 .... ---- mean of 1901-2000 ----

6.2 ... ... ... ... 2013 average
6.1 .... ---- mean of all years 1659-2014 ----

5.9 .... ---- mean of 1801-1900 ----
5.8 .... ---- mean of 1701-1800 ----
5.5 .... ---- mean of 1659-1700 ----

4.1 .... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985

2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807
2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915
2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782

-0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)
-2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)
-4.6 ... coldest day (24th, 1904)
__________________________________________________

daily records are for the period 1772 to 2014
monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2014

November displays as much of a historical warming as any month, the mean from 1992 to 2014 was 7.5C while from 1750 to 1765 the mean was only 5.1 C, similar to the "Dalton minimum" when the average from 1795 to 1820 was only 5.4 C and was 5.1 for the period 1795-1816. These would now be considered cold Novembers (as with 2010). Almost as mild as the recent period, 1938 to 1960 had a mean of 6.9 C.

November has produced the coldest day of the year and also of the winter season about 6% of the past 242 years (15 cases). The last time this happened for the year was 23 Nov 1993, when the mean daily CET was -2.9 C. That was also the coldest day of winter 1993-94 but winter 2013-14 also picked up its coldest day on 23 Nov, although that was +2.5 C (the highest such value on record, 1.7 in winter 1974-75 had been the previous mark).

 

SO, MAKE YOUR FORECAST WHEN YOU'RE READY -- DEADLINE WITHOUT PENALTY IS AT MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY 31 OCT, THEN YOU ARE ALLOWED TO ENTER WITH PENALTIES UNTIL THE END OF TUESDAY 3 NOV.

 

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Would like to go lower but will settle for a chilly 6 please

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6.3 please.

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A fairly average month for me with more slightly milder spells than chilly.

6.9 for me.

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4.6C please a thoroughly wet first half of the month I then expect for UK to be under HP which advects to Greenland and all the fun starts into the last week of November snow galore, widespread..

I see similarities to 2010 this year I do not know why; I might be barking up the wrong tree. :D

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4.8 for me please

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Below is the November CET from 1659-2014 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

post-6901-0-55143100-1445418446_thumb.pn

 

 

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 10.0 and 10.8C after corrections. The average November following Octobers within that range is 6.3C.

 
The linear trend for the whole record is +0.36C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 6.7C.
The linear trend since 1850 is +1.17C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 7.3C.
The linear trend since 1950 is +1.92C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 7.5C.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +3.43C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 7.7C.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is +5.17C per century. Following this trend gives a November CET of 7.9C.
 
November's below 6.0C have become increasingly rare sine 1900. From 1659 to 1899 more than half (52%) of all Novembers were below 6.0C, since 1900 that's dropped to 25% and in the last 30 years, that's dropped to 17%.

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Predicting an unseasonably warm and exceptionally wet November coming in at 9.2C

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