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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
    2 hours ago, MVH said:

    Hi, simply put Chino (Ed) can't do it this year because he is too busy. Obviously I won't speak for Ed, he can fill in the gaps, but I think it's a simple case of 'work life' getting in the way, so I'll be 'giving it a go', but probably in a different kind of structure to the last few years, for a few reasons, one being how potentially complex and difficult this years prediction is likely to be. Attempting to put 'too much meat on the bone' this year may well lead to a very messy and potentially untidy forecast. A combination of all the usual analoges, teleconnections and the likes will be there, but with perhaps more emphasis on some of the seasonal models available for discussion as well.

    If it doesn't go down well, there's always the Express you can look at in the next few months! :p:D

    Cheers Matt! Looking forward to it, although it's going to be alot harder this year I feel! Normally we have at least one very strong signal (strong wQBO or record breaking El NIno etc) so your powers of deduction will be intriguing, good luck mate :good:

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    Welcome to the latest stratospheric temperature watch thread.   A bit later this year with a new thread – but better late than never! It is now the 7th winter stratospheric temperature watch threa

    I wonder, do we have a slow burner ? A slow burner that perhaps leads to a more assured route to a warming event in January ? The pattern as of yesterday and for the next 7 days is within the env

    Stratosphere forecasting is probably just as complicated as traditional weather forecasting and when you break things down there are both positive and negative factors which will affect whether a stra

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    The last three months  30mb zonal wind at the equator, zonal average : 6.25   10.07   10.48 (september). So it seems a wQBO for sure. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

    mmmm  to be fair i think a easterly QBO was always a bit of a long shot  was winter 2009 as wQBO?

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    27 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    The last three months  30mb zonal wind at the equator, zonal average : 6.25   10.07   10.48 (september). So it seems a wQBO for sure. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

    Still very mixed through the layers.

    7918514e23d49f3a55bdf2492644a131.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

    Since it is 'that time of the year' again, leaves are changing colour and temperatures are slowly dropping, thoughts on the upcoming winter are slowly taking shape. With the unusual QBO 'wobbles' it proves to become an interesting, maybe even a surprising, winter yet again. Judah Cohen did a nice write-up of the current state of the Arctic Oscillation and its meanings for the upcoming winter: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    Winter of 2015/16 and some thoughts

    And also one looking back at our winter last year, where the bounds of predicability are being tested: http://www.aer.com/winter2016

    From the very same article:

    Quote

    One could argue that the true victor this winter is natural variability.  However I hope that it is obvious that I strongly disagree and through the blog I am trying to demonstrate to others but most importantly to myself that there is order in the seemingly chaos, we just need to see the whole picture.

    And that is what makes seasonal forecasting so interesting. Is there order in the chaos called the atmosphere? And if so, can we find it? The first answer appears to be yes: there is a Hadley cell which is a regular feature on our planet, there is a stratospheric polar vortex in winter, there should have been a regular QBO... The second question... we have found some order, but is it enough to be able to issue seasonal forecasts with skill? Probably only by understanding the system better we can answer this question.

    Stratospheric picture

    Back on topic: the stratospheric polar vortex is quickly taking shape again. At 10 hPa it is clearly there already.

    10.gif

    ECMWF analysis of the stratosphere at 10 hPa. Source: FU Berlin.

    Lowerning our view for the moment, the polar vortex at 100 hPa is rather elongated still. In fact, it nicely shows the blocking features present over Scandinavia. That one is developed all the way to the surface.

    100hPa.gifSurface.gif

    ECMWF analysis of the stratosphere at 100 hPa (left) and GFS analysis at 500 hPa and the surface (right). Sources: FU Berlin and Wetterzentrale.

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    On 06/10/2016 at 15:18, weirpig said:

    mmmm  to be fair i think a easterly QBO was always a bit of a long shot  was winter 2009 as wQBO?

    yes was easterly qbo and we did have better strat events early this autumn 09.

    it started clearly with weak vortex with regular splits which were dominant over siberian side.

    but we had an unsettled november it was from here things progressed still feel the west qbo with gradual move into easterly phase over the next 6 to 8 weeks although just a huntch.

    we not seen very good strat events for few years now so law of averages would surely suggest something more fruitful this winter at some point. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
    14 hours ago, MR EXTREMES said:

    yes was easterly qbo and we did have better strat events early this autumn 09.

    it started clearly with weak vortex with regular splits which were dominant over siberian side.

    but we had an unsettled november it was from here things progressed still feel the west qbo with gradual move into easterly phase over the next 6 to 8 weeks although just a huntch.

    we not seen very good strat events for few years now so law of averages would surely suggest something more fruitful this winter at some point. 

    We had a SSW in March this year.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    7 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

    We had a SSW in March this year.

    Perhaps if mr extremes had prefixed his comment with 'winter' it would have been more apt!

    was March a technical SSW?  I seem to remember it falling just short of reversal at 60N but I could be wrong - we had a cool spring so it had the expected consequences I guess! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

     

    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    Perhaps if mr extremes had prefixed his comment with 'winter' it would have been more apt!

    was March a technical SSW?  I seem to remember it falling just short of reversal at 60N but I could be wrong - we had a cool spring so it had the expected consequences I guess! 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    Perhaps if mr extremes had prefixed his comment with 'winter' it would have been more apt!

    was March a technical SSW?  I seem to remember it falling just short of reversal at 60N but I could be wrong - we had a cool spring so it had the expected consequences I guess! 

    It never reversed from easterly to westerly so, on current terminology, it was technically the final warming rather than a SSW. Earliest and strongest on record by all accounts. Was the mixed up QBO part cause or effect, I wonder?

    Edited by Gael_Force
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

    It never reversed from easterly to westerly so, on current terminology, it was technically the final warming rather than a SSW. Earliest and strongest on record by all accounts. Was the mixed up QBO part cause or effect, I wonder?

    QBO was not mixed up at the time. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    11 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    QBO was not mixed up at the time. 

    It was... read the abstract from the Osprey et al paper.

    One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption, but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, although the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    This is where we were on 3rd November last year (earliest chart I could find in this thread)

    post-9143-0-38326300-1446544475.png

    This is what the GFS is modelling for 2nd November this year-

    gfsnh-10-384.png

    And here's the 30hpa chart to go with that-

    npst30.png

    The vortex is not looking so healthy this year...

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    16 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    That signal not just confined to the GFS op. GEFS and EC means all showing a similar signature.

    Not in itself a large warm anomaly, but of interest if you are following the logic that high geomagnetic activity equates to cooling of the upper layers and vortex intensification and swift transfer to a +NAO regime. We are travelling in the opposite direction to that right now. Still quite some time to go and we know how quickly cooling can develop.

    For what it's worth, EC and GEFS at extended range showing conditions ripe for Wave 1 development, possibly Wave 2 into early / mid November. A distinct lack of westerly zonal wind anomaly in the troposphere right now, all restricted to the Southern hemisphere.

    Hi GP, thanks for that. Nice to see you back. :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The week 2 GEFS strat charts look pretty impressive re height anomaly 

    this is consistent over the past few days and if verifying will likely mean the strat vortex establishes early on the Siberian side rather than the Canadian 

    @ 30hpa

    IMG_4470.PNG

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The week 2 GEFS strat charts look pretty impressive re height anomaly 

    this is consistent over the past few days and if verifying will likely mean the strat vortex establishes early on the Siberian side rather than the Canadian 

    @ 30hpa

    IMG_4470.PNG

    The mean zonal wind forecast is pretty impressive too.....

    u_65N_10hpa.png

    Heading for a reversal maybe?....

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Gfs 12z op is showing a marked warming at the top of the strat over western Russia 

    not looked as notable as this run although there is a consistent signal for a warming at the two week timescale

    The strat vortex remains displaced and if we do see these warmings coming and going in the upper strat then this is very reminiscent of autumn 09............

     

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