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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016


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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    I believe there is a strange split going on, as near the surface we saw the traditional turn to easterly anomalies, but further up the westerlies have continued unabated. In fact there has recently been some apparent propagation upward toward the 10 mb level, where easterly anomalies were in place a couple of months back but have now gone AWOL.

    It is an extremely peculiar development and one I would love to learn more about. My scientific side is rubbing its hands in anticipation of the research that I imagine will be undertaken with respect to it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    On 8/5/2016 at 23:09, Gael_Force said:

    What's your thoughts on the twitter conversations around the QBO behaving erratically?

    Perhaps the answer lies here.

    Quote

    Abstract

    The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a tropical lower stratospheric, downward propagating zonal wind variation, with an average period of ~28 months. The QBO has been constantly documented since 1953. Here we describe the evolution of the QBO during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015-16 using radiosonde observations and meteorological reanalyses. Normally, the QBO would show a steady downward propagation of the westerly phase. In 2015-16, there was an anomalous upward displacement of this westerly phase from ~30 hPa to 15 hPa. These westerlies impinge on, or “cut-off” the normal downward propagation of the easterly phase. In addition, easterly winds develop at 40 hPa. Comparisons to tropical wind statistics for the 1953-present record demonstrate that this 2015-16 QBO disruption is unprecedented.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

    Could the amount of methane in the atmosphere cause disruption to the QBO and change the period?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    38 minutes ago, Fat Bloke said:

    Too many cows around :rofl::rofl:

    or politicians   :fool:  soz, off topic...:oops:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

    Two of my video sequences, showing some QBO evolution.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Thanks for those Recretos :good: It's interesting to see that little region of W anomalies moving gradually from the N. Hem to the S. Hem. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    A couple of screen grabs from https://twitter.com/splillo

    CpHaInvUsAE5FTH.jpg  CpxhzEVWcAACSKU.jpgCqe-W_yUkAE6A_1.jpg    Crwqr2hVUAEoZzN.png

    Still racing beyond the norm - anybody with better eyesight work out the other years with spikes.

    AGU Fall meeting schedule for ....

    The dynamical processes of stratosphere-troposphere interactions and their relationship with climate.

    Looks to be some interesting new presentations on the menu.

    https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/preliminaryview.cgi/Session13040

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

    my take on QBO time series. 

    u-in-grib2netcdf-atls14-.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    14 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    @Gael, seems to me as a delay.

    http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

    -> Weak La nina.

    GLOSEA5 shows a positive NAO-phase, similiar of the declining phase of solar activity.

    I need that hat!

     

     

    2cat_20160801_z500_months46_global_deter_public.png

    make.png.d89769de394dec7345fac172742a21ae.png

    This looks dreadful! How reliable is GLOSEA5 at this range?

    I was hoping for something better with the near neutral enso conditions.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    22 hours ago, karyo said:

    This looks dreadful! How reliable is GLOSEA5 at this range?

    I was hoping for something better with the near neutral enso conditions.

    Been pretty good since its arrived

    however, it hasn't been tested in a cold winter - odds seem it may not be for another year at least! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    @karyo Here's the winter prediction statement the Met office issued for last winter. Some of the graphics from GloSea5 included. But.....remember.... it was issued with runs from NOVEMBER.

    http://medcof.aemet.es/images/doc_events/medcof5/docMedcof5/presentaciones/MedCOF5_Brookshaw.pdf

    Far too early to be thinking of that - we've got a season of powerful cyclones, query ENSO and query QBO that could all shake the tree a bit. :D

    If it's OK to reproduce a graphic, here's strat. ensembles from last year - you can see why so bullish for late winter SSW.

    6f8b26fc38715d43b8ba2a89f72eceec.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    glbz700MonInd4.gif
    You never know, we might sneak an interesting December :crazy::laugh:

    The 3-month mean from CFSv2 is not too dissimilar to that of GloSea5 - mostly just weaker with the magnitude of the anomalies.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Can't be doing with another cr*p winter. If it has to be mild, let's at least have it dry!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
    16 hours ago, karyo said:

    Thanks guys,

    @singularity, what's so interesting about the December chart you posted?

    My guess would be that it's the height anomalies over the Polar regions that's interesting. It'd suggest a weaker than usual Polar vortex. Very early days yet though. 

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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
    On 8/23/2016 at 10:42, Ravelin said:

    My guess would be that it's the height anomalies over the Polar regions that's interesting. It'd suggest a weaker than usual Polar vortex. Very early days yet though. 

    That's right - it suggests potential for cold weather patterns - but unfortunately, nothing more than that. Generally I find that with CFS the best you can do is think about what could happen given the broad-scale signals, without paying too much attention to the more regional detail, as I don't really trust the model's ability to reliably find the right placement of the major troughs and ridges.

    Curiously, CFS has not only held on to such anomalies as of 29th August 2016, but extended them through January. There's even the slightest of signals for lowered heights across Europe but, well, the caveats are so big they could support a herd of elephants.

    glbz700MonInd5.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    On 22/08/2016 at 08:41, bluearmy said:

    Been pretty good since its arrived

    however, it hasn't been tested in a cold winter - odds seem it may not be for another year at least! 

    Wow! Is that the earliest ever winter is over post?

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    Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

    Say hello to my little friend.

    geopotentialheightisobar.png  u-componentofwindisobari.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-50.80,91.86,477/loc=-84.426,27.253

    For those who seek - there are subtle hints at the 10 hPa level now. Interestingly there's a more pronounced circulation at 70 hPa on the Atlantic side.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

    A predictable pattern of winds in the stratosphere recently changed in a way scientists had not seen in more than 60 years of record-keeping.

    Credit: NASA






    This disruption to the wind pattern -- called the "quasi-biennial oscillation" -- did not have any immediate impact on weather or climate as we experience it on Earth's surface. But it does raise interesting questions for the NASA scientists who observed it: If a pattern holds for six decades and then suddenly changes, what caused that to happen? Will it happen again? What effects might it have?

    "The quasi-biennial oscillation is the stratosphere's Old Faithful," said Paul Newman, Chief Scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author on a new paper about the event published online in Geophysical Research Letters. "If Old Faithful stopped for a day, you'd begin to wonder about what was happening under the ground."

    Winds in the tropical stratosphere, an atmospheric layer that extends from about 10 to 30 miles above Earth's surface, circulate the planet in alternating easterly and westerly directions over roughly a two-year period. Westerly winds develop at the top of the stratosphere, and gradually descend to the bottom, about 10 miles above the surface while at the same time being replaced by a layer of easterly winds above them. In turn, the easterlies descend and are replaced by westerlies.

    This pattern repeats every 28 months. In the 1960s scientists coined it the "quasi-biennial oscillation." The record of these measurements, made by weather balloons released in the tropics at various points around the globe, dates to 1953.

    The pattern never changed -- until late 2015. As the year came to a close, winds from the west neared the end of their typical descent. The regular pattern held that weaker easterly winds would soon replace them. But then the westerlies appeared to move upwards and block the downward movement of the easterlies. This new pattern held for nearly half a year, and by July 2016 the old regime seemed to resume.

    "It's really interesting when nature throws us a curveball," Newman said.

    The quasi-biennial oscillation has a wide influence on stratospheric conditions. The amount of ozone at the equator changes by 10 percent between the peaks of the easterly and westerly phases, while the oscillation also has an impact on levels of polar ozone depletion.

    With this disruption now documented, Newman and colleagues are currently focused on studying both its causes and potential implications. They have two hypotheses for what could have triggered it -- the particularly strong El Niño in 2015-16 or the long-term trend of rising global temperatures. Newman said the scientists are conducting further research now to figure out if the event was a "black swan," a once-in-a-generation event, or a "canary in the coal mine," a shift with unforeseen circumstances, caused by climate change.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Good to see the Westerlies are on the descent once again, I hadn't realised that.

    From a purely scientific pov it is going to be absolutely fascinating to see whether or not this was just a blip. That we won't know for a while though.

    The notion that this is climate driven is not a particularly palatable one. If it turned out to be the case (taking into account that it will be nigh on impossible to prove or disprove) then we have a tipping point mechanism in place. The effects on the ground of which in this instance may be anywhere from negligible to catastrophic. By catastrophic I mean set off a chain reaction through our weather drivers, the very worst case scenario.

    Anyway, highly improbable scenarios aside, personally I don't buy into the purely climate driven angle. 

    The recent El Nino was the strongest to have occurred over the period the QBO has been recorded and there are obvious links between the QBO and ENSO, sat on the equator. I haven't looked yet but if this were to be the case, I would imagine there would be at least a weak correlation between stronger El Ninos events and a slower descent of westerly winds as we returned towards ENSO neutral.

    Maybe it is all just a big heap of confirmation bias but what with the anomalous Atlantic cold pool and apparent slow down of the Gulf stream, you do have to wonder...?

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    This illustration of the historic QBO cycle does not show anything out of the ordinary for the previous very strong El Nino events. In fact, the '97/'98 looked to be a smooth and fast transition downwards.

    qbo_wind.jpg

    The 30mb figure increased again in August so the downward progression appears to still be out of kilter.

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

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