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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016


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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
1 hour ago, Singularity said:

That's fantastic, thanks for the link Nick :good:

The central Pacific convection correlates well to blocking just as it does in Feb, though not as extreme.

MarchPhase6gt1500mb.gif MarchPhase7gt1500mb.gif

Indeed you can see the support for a more settled regime as you head towards the middle of the month.

Tonight's EC Monthly takes us through to phase 6-7 in ca. 20d (a member or two even to 8). The rest of the suite is a fair parallel to GloSea5, with +ve MSLP anomaly to W mid-month then superceded by focus to SW by late Feb. Net result is eventual decline in +ve PPN anomaly late month and maintaining largely neutral temp anomalies, tying with idea (hope!) of a more anticyclonic look to things at least for the S later in Feb. The ENS plumes show a very discernable gradual upward trend in GPH after 2nd week of Feb to end of run. 

Edited by fergieweather
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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
6 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Tonight's EC Monthly takes us through to phase 6-7 in ca. 20d (a member or two even to 8). The rest of the suite is a fair parallel to GloSea5, with +ve MSLP anomaly to W mid-month then superceded by focus to SW by late Feb. Net result is eventual decline in +ve PPN anomaly late month and maintaining largely neutral temp anomalies, tying with idea (hope!) of a more anticyclonic look to things at least for the S later in Feb. The ENS plumes show a very discernable gradual upward trend in GPH after 2nd week of Feb to end of run. 

Thank you so much for that update Ian...but in laymens terms the meaning of that can be summed up by anyone ha ? 

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
53 minutes ago, Singularity said:

True, I forget about that, probably out of preference as it got right on my nerves at the time -  there had been some runs which pasted my back yard and then came the infamous correction southward!

Looking at the archives I can really see what you mean by unlucky:

Rrea00120130309.gif Rrea00120130312.gif Rrea00120130316.gif

That's a shortwave that could have affected CS England but instead just grazed the SE, then the Channel Islands Blizzard, then a LP dropping down about 200 miles too far west. I do remember taking a break from the models out of frustration.

Sorry to wander off topic mods - though I have a feeling the above will prove rather relevant for the final days of Feb and into March this year. Interesting that the above took until 8 or 9 days to kick off, and actually had a pretty warm day on the 4th or 5th, with maximums in the high teens in the south.

Incidentally, does anyone know what the MJO was up to in March of that year? TIA

Yes I also remember that all too well.. Was worried I'd miss it while at uni (and was thinking of heading home), only for it to correct south. March 2013 as a whole got on my nerves it was usually just cold and cloudy here with minimal snow or decent mins, and I'd rather have had spring.

With the lack of winter this year I feel more that I'd take some cold/snow in March, hopefully if the Stratosphere and things do play ball, it delivers down here this time but without such protracted cold.
I feel like I should add something on topic (sorry mods) but don't really have the expertise with the strat (and didn't want to not reply).

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

The only medium term effect of this minor SSW is the small negative dent in AO and NAO and also some other oscillationd. The AO dent is there thanks to the wave 1 phase which helps promote the Alaskan to pole ridge building. 
The NAO on the other hand, owes its negative dent thanks to the second phase of this minor SSW, which is the grind-off of the wave 1 on the vortex, elongating it and establishing a cross-polar flow in the lower strat, sending decent amount of cyclonic energy into N America. And our negative NAO, west based, owes its existance to this American core, because the warm sector of this core is what causes this relativeny shortlived Atlantic ridge, driven mainly by WAA, and it goes away as soon as the vortex starts to regain its zonal angular momentum, and sending more cyclonic energy i to the Atlantic sector. That is why the NAO negative dent is relatively short lived, because you could say that it resulted from a "fake" warm sector ridge. 

epsao12.png

epsnao12.png

Yes, its that simple...



 

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
6 hours ago, Recretos said:

The only medium term effect of this minor SSW is the small negative dent in AO and NAO and also some other oscillationd. The AO dent is there thanks to the wave 1 phase which helps promote the Alaskan to pole ridge building. 
The NAO on the other hand, owes its negative dent thanks to the second phase of this minor SSW, which is the grind-off of the wave 1 on the vortex, elongating it and establishing a cross-polar flow in the lower strat, sending decent amount of cyclonic energy into N America. And our negative NAO, west based, owes its existance to this American core, because the warm sector of this core is what causes this relativeny shortlived Atlantic ridge, driven mainly by WAA, and it goes away as soon as the vortex starts to regain its zonal angular momentum, and sending more cyclonic energy i to the Atlantic sector. That is why the NAO negative dent is relatively short lived, because you could say that it resulted from a "fake" warm sector ridge. 

epsao12.png

epsnao12.png

Yes, its that simple...



 

Logical and clear.

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

Above is a link for NAO data from 1950-2015. Courtesy of NOAA. 

From this data you can observe the periods of +NAO and -NAO and compare them with 11 year solar cycles. 

For example take Summer 2008 to the beginning of 2011, here we see the NAO in a near constant state of negative, slightly below neutral to short periods of substantial negative. 

From 2011 to present, as we are in a state of 80% +NAO in conjunction with peak of solar cycle 24. 

Expect NAO to begin trending more and more negative from 2017-2022.

Natural cycles of Geo-Physical atmospherics. 

 

Back to minor SSW ECMWF has peak at 10C. 

image.jpg

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10 hours ago, Eastwoods said:

I know it probably doesn't add to the discussion but some interesting pictures of nacreous clouds on the BBC website as seen from northern Britain today sorry unable to put up link but good call from vorticity0123 a few days ago

Indeed and briefly returning to the discussion regarding mountain gravity waves, the cooling of rising air that these stationary waves cause allows researchers to predict quite accurately where the polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) may form and allow their study - see eg http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001JD000452/full

That was coauthored by Andreas Dornbrack who will be a familiar name to many on this thread for his stratosphere potential vorticity charts amongst others - http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php but a large part of his work has involved both gravity waves and stratospheric clouds over Scandinavia. For PSC type 1, synoptic conditions (eg vortex position like now) are favourable 36% of the time in January, with gravity waves contributing only a further 6%. However for the colder PSC type 2 the temperatures are rarely low enough over Scandinavia and it is suggested that the presence of these clouds is almost always due to mountain waves - http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/papers/Andreas_JGR01b.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

To put aside or search for cold for one second.  If we want the kind of spring months that were seen in March 12, May 07 and May 08 then what do we want to be seeing from the stratosphere and teleconnections.

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Interesting as usual Recretos, though it does assume that those forecasts are correct and moreover, that the SSW is actually finished - there is a good chance that it isn't. Simply, the strength of the vortex meant it was unlikely to reach wind reversal in one go. It may be surprising but the 10-day 10mb 60°N wind reduction from  22/1/16 to 1/2/16 of about 53 m/s in this 'minor SSW' is the 3rd greatest behind only 26/2/07 only just ahead with 54 m/s and 28/1/09 with 68.21 m/s, which both occurred during full SSW.

Actually, there were a number of other greater 10-day drops in Jan 2009 - the fact is as the wind reduction suggests, that no other year compares to that event, dropping from in excess of 68 m/s to -30 m/s more or less one attempt. It was 68.48 m/s 16 days before reversal - the average speed at this stage before SSWs is only about 28 m/s.

As pointed out previously, the earliest an SSW has occurred after winds in the 75 m/s region like this year on 22/1 was a month later in Jan/Feb 1989 which incidentally was the second behind 2009 at 16 days to reversal with 49.74 m/s. Only Jan 1985 and March 1988 were also above 40 m/s at this stage (all 4 were splits). Recent years like Jan 2006 or Jan 2013 were only 28-29 m/s.

 

Edited by Interitus
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Keep going son:D

pole30_nh.thumb.gif.2275c4b8184fa558b46apole10_nh.thumb.gif.1f3f3523c7d9e74a12d9

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
14 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

An an aside to the here and now - An interesting paper, thinking about next winter and beyond....

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/93/1/93_2015-007/_article

Very interesting, below is a chart that shows the ENSO pattern during periods of lower solar output.

As radiation/radio flux decreases. Thermal dynamics causes the heat storage of the Pacific Ocean to create a more +PDO.

image.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
On 16/01/2016 at 6:51 PM, Singularity said:

 

49 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

An an aside to the here and now - An interesting paper, thinking about next winter and beyond....

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/93/1/93_2015-007/_article

 

Could be looking at both La Nina and an E-QBO going into next winter.

 

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/extreme-weather/will-la-nina-take-el-ninos-place-in-the-pacific-we-examine/62812/http://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/extreme-weather/will-la-nina-take-el-ninos-place-in-the-pacific-we-examine/62812/

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Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
Just now, Snowy L said:

Yes I've read that part although I'm not good at reading a complex bit of info I'm afraid 

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
7 minutes ago, Grimsby Snow Lover said:

What would that mean for our winter next year? Thanks in advance.

Both are positive signs for colder weather on these shores, the previous paper linked to also commenting on the greater likelihood of a severe stratospheric warming with both a la Nina and easterly QBO. They do not, it should be stressed mean snowmageddon or anything definite, just an increased possibility (we were on a hiding to nothing this year with a westerly QBO and a massive El Nino but there still remained plausible optimism for colder interludes).

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
12 hours ago, KyleHenry said:

Logical and clear.

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

Above is a link for NAO data from 1950-2015. Courtesy of NOAA. 

From this data you can observe the periods of +NAO and -NAO and compare them with 11 year solar cycles. 

For example take Summer 2008 to the beginning of 2011, here we see the NAO in a near constant state of negative, slightly below neutral to short periods of substantial negative. 

From 2011 to present, as we are in a state of 80% +NAO in conjunction with peak of solar cycle 24. 

Expect NAO to begin trending more and more negative from 2017-2022.

Natural cycles of Geo-Physical atmospherics. 

 

Back to minor SSW ECMWF has peak at 10C. 

image.jpg

Not strictly on topic, but the correlation between low solar activity and negative/neutral NAO and conversely high solar activity and positive NAO is very noteworthy. Indeed the 2005-2007 saw lengthy negative NAO periods as well, when solar activity was nosediving. Going further back the peak of the last solar cycle in 2000 coincided with a very positive NAO period, when energy was rising after a low in 1995-96 (a period with negative NAO values) we saw a generally static positive NAO state.

I am a believer in solar activity influences the likelihood for heights over the north pole. I know some disagree, but the conditions of the last 20 years can't go unnoticed in this regard.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

Not sure why my text is underlined when I post from mobile. 
But its enough to say that I am really unsatisfied with the current forum visual scheme. I want the old theme back please. There isnt even a preview function anymore. And it ocasionally crashes my browser when viewing it on Android.

Enough offtopic.
There actually is a very decent correlation signal bettwen solar flux and 500mb pattern in wintertime. Here we see a decent correlation of Solar flux and NAO pattern, which both have a tendency to be positive or negative at the same time. And the good thing about this correlation is that the index is independant, because it is a solar/Sun index, unaffected by Earths weather. So there is no autocorrelation like between SSTs and NAO for example, where we know that they can both affect each other.

17676641083216635.gif

The reason why it goes just to +-0.5, is not random or a coincidence, but because it is highly dependant on the QBO phase. Correlating specific solar phase with specific QBO phases should give better results. 
 

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

It is useful to look back at the Bartels musical diagrams on this site.

http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html

Although we are a couple of years past solar maximum, this year has been more active than the last two.

2013. kp2013.gif  2014  kp2013.gif  2015 kp2015.gif

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
18 hours ago, fergieweather said:

An an aside to the here and now - An interesting paper, thinking about next winter and beyond....

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/93/1/93_2015-007/_article

Well I think his comment is in line with Finnish research.

However, the clearest pattern of the temperature anomalies is not found during sunspot maximum or minimum, but during the declining phase, when the temperature pattern closely resembles the pattern found during positive NAO. Moreover, we find the same pattern during the low sunspot activity cycles of 100 years ago, suggesting that the pattern is largely independent of the overall level of solar activity.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021343/abstract

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
27 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Well I think his comment is in line with Finnish research.

However, the clearest pattern of the temperature anomalies is not found during sunspot maximum or minimum, but during the declining phase, when the temperature pattern closely resembles the pattern found during positive NAO. Moreover, we find the same pattern during the low sunspot activity cycles of 100 years ago, suggesting that the pattern is largely independent of the overall level of solar activity.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021343/abstract

The powerpoint presentation of the above paper is very good - lots of illustrations.

http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Mursula_03_2014.pdf

Ties in a lot of the previous discussion.

 

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Meant to post this morning, but was busy - latest GloSea output has now lost (entirely) the colder anticyclonic signal last week of Feb. Now looking very mobile/zonal to close the month (and winter). Indeed, any drier, colder phase circa 10-12 Feb looks tenuous, with now only small minority ENS support. So, most likely outcome - despite any stratospheric/MJO influences - is the rest of Feb resolving overall as either average or slightly above for temperatures; frequently unsettled/windy/wet, but with periodic passing colder phases. Clearly, that means some snow (even further south) remains quite possible at times.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
31 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Meant to post this morning, but was busy - latest GloSea output has now lost (entirely) the colder anticyclonic signal last week of Feb. Now looking very mobile/zonal to close the month (and winter). Indeed, any drier, colder phase circa 10-12 Feb looks tenuous, with now only small minority ENS support. So, most likely outcome - despite any stratospheric/MJO influences - is the rest of Feb resolving overall as either average or slightly above for temperatures; frequently unsettled/windy/wet, but with periodic passing colder phases. Clearly, that means some snow (even further south) remains quite possible at times.

Hi Fergie, thank you for the update, but I wonder, are you able to offer us any idea as to why effective MJO influence (as in, driving a change) has suddenly been dropped from the model guidance? I have been looking into this a lot and was under the impression that support was growing for a 6/7/8 propagation of an active MJO which nearly always has a notable effect on our weather patterns. Given this, coupled with the stratosphere looking less unfavourable on the GFS output so far today (vortex more toward Siberia), it was a surprise to read these words of yours just now.

Yous see, I'm finding this sudden drop out following recent trends rather dubious. 

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
18 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Hi Fergie, thank you for the update, but I wonder, are you able to offer us any idea as to why effective MJO influence (as in, driving a change) has suddenly been dropped from the model guidance? I have been looking into this a lot and was under the impression that support was growing for a 6/7/8 propagation of an active MJO which nearly always has a notable effect on our weather patterns. Given this, coupled with the stratosphere looking less unfavourable on the GFS output so far today (vortex more toward Siberia), it was a surprise to read these words of yours just now.

Yous see, I'm finding this sudden drop out following recent trends rather dubious. 

No idea. Bear in mind that back on Monday, GloSea and EC Monthly both saw the return to westerly flow last week of Feb, with +ve MSLP anomaly to SW/S of the UK (and both models were running MJO through to phase 7, and later 8, across the 20d period). GloSea then shifted to reflect a generally greater chance of (chillier) anticyclonic dominance end of Feb-early March. Today, UKMO favour the generally more mobile signal, BUT whilst retaining periods of anticyclonic influence to the south, with storm tracks back up to the N/NW of the UK. So, some frosty nights at times in the south look possible, but overall, temperatures either above average or average. This view does mirror the neutral temp anomalies shown in Monday's EC out towards later Feb, which then show an upturn to +ve anomalies at the end of the run (last week of Feb). Either way - and nuances aside - neither model exhibits any signal for a change of pattern to anything significantly cold during February. The last time I checked (Mon), GloSea strat diagnostics were showing  -ve zonal wind signal from 1 down to 10hPa early March, so whether stratospheric influences resume to cause something to yield in the broadscale pattern start of next month remains an imponderable.

Edited by fergieweather
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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
6 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

No idea. Bear in mind that back on Monday, GloSea and EC Monthly both saw the return to westerly flow last week of Feb, with +ve MSLP anomaly to SW/S of the UK (and both models were running MJO through to phase 7, and later 8, across the 20d period). GloSea then shifted to reflect a generally greater chance of (chillier) anticyclonic dominance end of Feb-early March. Today, UKMO favour the generally more mobile signal, BUT whilst retaining periods of anticyclonic influence to the south, with storm tracks back up to the N/NW of the UK. So, some frosty nights at times in the south look possible, but overall, temperatures either above average or average. This view does mirror the neutral temp anomalies shown in Monday's EC out towards later Feb, which then show an upturn to +ve anomalies at the end of the run (last week of Feb). Either way - and nuances aside - neither model exhibits any signal for a change of pattern to anything significantly cold during February. The last time I checked (Mon), GloSea strat diagnostics were showing  -ve zonal wind signal from 1 down to 10hPa early March, so whether stratospheric influences resume to cause something to yield in the broadscale pattern start of next month remains an imponderable.

Is it me or have Glosea and Met office outlook changed back and forth a lot lately in regards to the most probably outcome for later this month? I wouldn't be surprised if Met office outlook changed tomorrow again. 

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
24 minutes ago, Abyss said:

Is it me or have Glosea and Met office outlook changed back and forth a lot lately in regards to the most probably outcome for later this month? I wouldn't be surprised if Met office outlook changed tomorrow again. 

I've just chatted it through a minute ago with UKMO to understand rationale. Basically, the notion of quieter, anticyclonic phase to close the winter has now progressively waned in GloSea ENS.... so, it's not re individual runs swinging, it's the ENS gradually weakening the signal/probability. So, as I suggested above, the favoured outcome is HP to the south; lows running up north; anticyclonic influence still at times to the south BUT net result a westerly pattern. They (UKMO) agree it's interesting set against the MJO background pattern, but - for whatever reason - Glosea and EC Monthly don't see MJO phasing as becoming influential this time around.  However, next EC due tomorrow evening, so it'll be interesting to see if there's any flux in the signal.

Edited by fergieweather
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