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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016


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im not extremely clued up when it comes to the strat but is this chart a strat warming or a error on the gfs?

attachicon.gifgfsnh-10-12.png

 me neither, but if you go to http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-13.50,97.39,398

 

then you can play with the options and at 10 hPa that warmer portion is evident.

 

I wish that this had a historical file to show what the situation looked like previously !

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ALL_emean_phase_full.gifgfsgwo_1.png

 

I'm watching you, MJO... whatever happened to the decay in phase 1/2 that was more in line with the El Nino atmospheric background? I've been too busy to track this closely this past week so I'm wondering what the recent trend has been since the idea of progression to phase 3 was locked onto - any more toward phase 4 and the usual (for an El Nino atmospheric state) suppression of convection across Indonesia comes under threat.

 

The GWO outlook from GEFS has been threatening a dive in AAM toward negative territory, It isn't going the whole hog, but it sure gets close to neutral and that angle downward for the 16th day draws the attention. From what I understand (do correct me if I'm wide of the mark here), any greater progression of the MJO toward phase 4 would threaten to produce more dramatic results.

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Update from the AER on the AO and other factors. From perusing this, i believe it's still 50/50 as to whether we get a colder UK winter or not.

 

I was immediately drawn to the latest El Nino temperatures in Figure 9. It most certainly shows more warming the Central Pacific than the East, which is normally good news for a colder winter.

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

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Update from the AER on the AO and other factors. From perusing this, i believe it's still 50/50 as to whether we get a colder UK winter or not.

 

I was immediately drawn to the latest El Nino temperatures in Figure 9. It most certainly shows more warming the Central Pacific than the East, which is normally good news for a colder winter.

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

The section about sea ice in the Kara/Barents is a research topic going back more than a decade. The emphasis has been more on cold in mainland Europe but no reason to suppose the cold cannot stretch across the North sea.

 

A gif of recent years for this date in November ....   47e28788990e2a2e795bcbbd8367212c.gif

 

It has missed out 2010 for some reason, here's the link and you can also use it to change year and day number for other times.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2010/ims2010307_asiaeurope.gif

 

Definitely a lack of ice there in recent cold winters but is it correlation or coincidence?

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im not extremely clued up when it comes to the strat but is this chart a strat warming or a error on the gfs?

attachicon.gifgfsnh-10-12.png

Not this time, the signal can be picked out at approx 300z on GFS and further if you can read other atmospheric drivers.

When the warming is detected, 9 times out of 10 it will occur give or take approx 1 week.

There is always a but, even when event occurs the pattern still needs to be positioned correctly for NW Europe to be flooded with cold air at surface.

So with super El Niño ongoing a late event, end of Jan 2016 is more likely.

If this year doesn't work out, one of the winters from 2016-2023 will produce another 2009/2010 event for us if not more blocked pattern due to solar min and in one which is an EQBO.

No stress involved when you trust the Strat.

post-21685-0-06477000-1446570222_thumb.j

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thank you kylehenry indeed theres got to be a deep in solar output sooner than later.

funny you mentioned 09/10 phenominal winter perhaps if we get a warming in jan feb march might bring a suprise.

a nice massive canadian warming that would be nice to see been a rare feature in recent decades.

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Comparisons to Winter of 2009/10 are a false dawn. Even though analog years have some upper pattern similarities.

Similar to 2009 NW Europe and Eastern U.S. are heading towards an above average November/December, 2 metre temps.

You only have to look at 10hPa levels pattern and temperatures on GFS archives to see the difference is vast.

Compare Ozone concentration in Dobson Units on map and see that the totals in 2009 far out weigh 2015.

http://es-ee.tor.ec.gc.ca/e/ozone/Curr_allmap_g.htm

post-21685-0-67519400-1446631394_thumb.j

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Comparisons to Winter of 2009/10 are a false dawn. Even though analog years have some upper pattern similarities.

 

 

The difference this coming winter to that one were that 2009-10 had a Modoki El Nino rather than a further east based El Nino like now, also 09/10 had an easterly -QBO along with a solar minimum which all conspired to weaken the PV and create the very -AO for much of that winter.

 

As we head into winter 15/16, we have a westerly QBO which, as many will know, encourages strong stratospheric winds that will encourage a strong polar vortex. Solar activity is in decline from its 2014 peak, but a long way to go to a solar minimum like 09/10. The plus side is that the strong El Nino can help encourage warming of the strat, which is in contradiction to +QBO forcing on the PV, so there's hope that the record strong El Nino may override the negative effects of QBO phase atm. El Nino forcing on the PV may additionally be helped by a healthy looking October Siberian snow cover so far along with lower solar activity. Though the healthy SAI/SCE last year didn't play ball.

 

So a glimmer of hope IMO, though we could be looking at the strat PV taking a while to weaken, perhaps not until late winter.

 

Still rather have a -QBO, strong El Nino, low solar activity to increase the chances of that -AO though ...

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Good post although this Nino is not east based.

 

Aware of that, though I was trying to portray, perhaps not very well looking back, that El Nino warming is based in the east equatorial Pacific rather than El Nino Modoki warming which is central Pacific :)

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Just worth mentioning that we are pretty much seeing the strongest vortex start in the upper strat to a season that we have witnessed here on NW whilst monitoring the strat as can be seen here with the 10 hPa forecast and the 1hPa vortex strength for early November.

 

post-4523-0-65045000-1446848700_thumb.pn

 

 

post-4523-0-78473000-1446848730_thumb.gi

 

 

Now I know that there it is early days and we there will still be a lag betwen upper strat and lower strat but it will be only a matter of time before this transfers down to the lower strat. It would take pretty strong wave activity to disrupt this later this month.

 

The tropospheric raised height anomalies that we are seeing over the east of America towards Greenland  at around day 10 will have to be quite pronounced to break through into Greenland and it is my suspicion that these will be 'squashed out' towards the Atlantic as the strong polar vortex wins the battle. Pm air will likely become entrenched in the flow giving a return to more average conditions temperature wise for a while.

 

Regarding the possible MJO wave - it appears also that this is a non starter, and those of you keeping up with twitter will see that the current MJO wave is in fact an anomaly - moreso of a flare up of walker cell activity in the IO area and is not being pulsed through as a wave of tropical convection. I am unsure of how this correlates to the wavelength patterns traditionally asociated with MJO phases, but it is unlikely to correlate well with these. This is likely to quell any thoughts that this winter may start off in the same vein as 2009, but it will still be worth watching the output stratospherically over the coming weeks.

 

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Just worth mentioning that we are pretty much seeing the strongest vortex start in the upper strat to a season that we have witnessed here on NW whilst monitoring the strat as can be seen here with the 10 hPa forecast and the 1hPa vortex strength for early November.

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-11-06 at 17.23.52.png

 

 

attachicon.gifecmwf1a12.gif

 

 

Now I know that there it is early days and we there will still be a lag betwen upper strat and lower strat but it will be only a matter of time before this transfers down to the lower strat. It would take pretty strong wave activity to disrupt this later this month.

 

The tropospheric raised height anomalies that we are seeing over the east of America towards Greenland  at around day 10 will have to be quite pronounced to break through into Greenland and it is my suspicion that these will be 'squashed out' towards the Atlantic as the strong polar vortex wins the battle. Pm air will likely become entrenched in the flow giving a return to more average conditions temperature wise for a while.

 

Regarding the possible MJO wave - it appears also that this is a non starter, and those of you keeping up with twitter will see that the current MJO wave is in fact an anomaly - moreso of a flare up of walker cell activity in the IO area and is not being pulsed through as a wave of tropical convection. I am unsure of how this correlates to the wavelength patterns traditionally asociated with MJO phases, but it is unlikely to correlate well with these. This is likely to quell any thoughts that this winter may start off in the same vein as 2009, but it will still be worth watching the output stratospherically over the coming weeks.

With the Aleutian/Alaskan Low expected to be a semi-permanent fixture due to the strong El Nino, is there more potential for high pressure to build towards East Canada? I don't see any big potential for HL blocking with the strong vortex, but would this disrupt the East Canada/West Greenland conveyor belt for low pressure systems? Can see a winter of weak low pressure systems and regular mid latitude blocking to our west/south-west.

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With the Aleutian/Alaskan Low expected to be a semi-permanent fixture due to the strong El Nino, is there more potential for high pressure to build towards East Canada? I don't see any big potential for HL blocking with the strong vortez, but would this disrupt the East Canada/West Greenland conveyor belt for low pressure systems? Can see a winter of weak low pressure systems and regular mid latitude blocking to our west/south-west.

That's the area to keep an eye on this winter. However, the concern will be that the UK may be blocked like a inverted stable door - with the top half shut, but the bottom left open for the Atlantic to still saunter through.

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That's the area to keep an eye on this winter. However, the concern will be that the UK may be blocked like a inverted stable door - with the top half shut, but the bottom left open for the Atlantic to still saunter through.

 

 

I take it you mean limited opportunities for high latitude blocking to our north, but instead the atlantic longwave trough will anchor down repeatedly over the country... conditions at the surface as ever will be determined by the track of the Jetstream.

 

I also take it you mean we will be starting the winter season with the PV in full power, at its peak which in itself increases the chances of a colder theme as the winter wears on as naturally it will run out of steam and take hits so to speak.,whereas in an average winter it takes until around early Jan before it reaches peak strength?

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It will take a major warming event to break this Polar Vortex! so it could be the end of winter when the final warming occurs when we see any meaningful cold. The stronger the vortex, the stronger the westerly winds around the pole and with that a more powerful jet. The end result is generally that the cold is locked up tight in the polar region.

 

We are more likely going to see the jet pummelling through or to the north of the UK very often this winter.

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We are more likely going to see the jet pummelling through or to the north of the UK very often this winter.

 

Another winter of total dross then?  However, with a record breaking El Nino, we were always going to be up against it to get a cold Winter.  We will see though.

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I presume going by what chino said regards the pv that the first month of this winter for starters will have a strong possibility of being a very zonal month?

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I presume going by what chino said regards the pv that the first month of this winter for starters will have a strong possibility of being a very zonal month?

 

 

December on average is a very zonal month, the most zonal of the year.

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Reading this thread, and others, you get the impression winter is over until February at the earliest. That's that then, winter death knell sounded on November 8th? I'd like to think that there is more to this than meets the eye- and of course there is otherwise winter forecasting would be a piece of cake. IMO it's good that so many people are writing the first half/ two thirds of winter off as it keeps expectations low and provides a platform for surprises to pop up.

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Reading this thread, and others, you get the impression winter is over until February at the earliest. That's that then, winter death knell sounded on November 8th? I'd like to think that there is more to this than meets the eye- and of course there is otherwise winter forecasting would be a piece of cake. IMO it's good that so many people are writing the first half/ two thirds of winter off as it keeps expectations low and provides a platform for surprises to pop up.

 

 

The weather is never as simple as this, and it will always keep us guessing.. its always best to keep expectations low as any rewards will be more greatly welcomed. There is a sense this year probably because of the super El Nino state to expect little in the main if after any sustained cold attacks at least to begin with - but we certainly shouldn't and must never discount something else occurring.

 

We only have to look back at winter 13/14 - I don't recall any forecast saying it would be the wettest and stormiest on record.. or Dec 10 likely to be the coldest for 100 years..

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13/14 was a particularly big fail from pretty much all long range forecasters. All LRFs are just playing the odds and are likely to be caught out in a number of directions, hence the prevalence of postmortems which emphasise just what wasn't expected. Think of it like the pollsters in the last general election, they were all going by a set of expectations that proved to be totally wrong, so they all missed what was, in retrospect, obvious.

 

The question is, what will be the missed factor this year? Could be strat based but we'll see.

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