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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016


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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

 

The wildcard MJO event looks odds on to take place now. Is this the atmosphere giving the El Nino the middle finger? Checking the GWO outlook from GEFS to see whether this MJO event might bring about an east-Asian MT event, I see little sign - which if I'm right is a reflection of the model not projecting the MJO to progress beyond the western Indian Ocean. ECMF on the other hand... makes me think about how entertaining it would be to see wave breaking into the strat. from an EAMT followed by wave breaking via the Rockies in line with a typical El Nino configuration. What would you say the odds are off that... or am I straying wide of the mark?

 

I can see where ECMF might be coming from, given that the Indian Ocean continues to feature impressively strong and widespread positive SST anomalies. Not that co-operation from the atmosphere is even close to a given, of course.

 

sst.daily.anom.gif

 

On top of this, I find myself wondering how that huge tongue of highly anomalous warmth extending west from the U.S. toward Hawaii might impact Rossby wave formation in that region? Given that El Nino events encourage their formation with the component trough across the Aleutians and ridge over NW N. America and W. Canada (extending well east at times), and then serves to boost their amplification considerably, could this extra band of warmth serve to further enhance the amplification? If so, would that then have the potential to lead to one of the most intense wave-breaking type strat. warming events ever observed, or would the wavelength be altered such that wave breaking would be jeopardized?

 

 

An awful lot of questions I know, but I am (perhaps insatiably) intrigued by all this. I look forward to seeing what the well informed bunch you are have to say about this... regardless of how much I have right or wrong  :D

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

 

The wildcard MJO event looks odds on to take place now. Is this the atmosphere giving the El Nino the middle finger? Checking the GWO outlook from GEFS to see whether this MJO event might bring about an east-Asian MT event, I see little sign - which if I'm right is a reflection of the model not projecting the MJO to progress beyond the western Indian Ocean. ECMF on the other hand... makes me think about how entertaining it would be to see wave breaking into the strat. from an EAMT followed by wave breaking via the Rockies in line with a typical El Nino configuration. What would you say the odds are off that... or am I straying wide of the mark?

 

I can see where ECMF might be coming from, given that the Indian Ocean continues to feature impressively strong and widespread positive SST anomalies. Not that co-operation from the atmosphere is even close to a given, of course.

 

%7Boption%7Dhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif[/

El Niño remains the big show. Aleutian Low moving in to place correlating with MJO's forecasted high phase 2. Position of low in NW Pacific still unknown.

Down stream is highlighting ++ NAO.

post-21685-0-51341000-1445591705_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

In Conclusion:

 

We are essentially in uncharted territory since at least 1950 in terms of a basin wide El Nino event of this strength, when combined with a warm Indian Ocean, very warm waters compared to Hawaii to California and a very warm N. Pacific. However, there is evidence that the warm Indian Ocean may act to cause somewhat more MJO activity that what is common during stronger El Nino winters, and in general, the warmer waters elsewhere in the East Pacific tended to pull the Aleutian low farther west when compared with other moderate to strong basin wide El Nino events. This suggests that a +PNA may become more likely as the winter goes on, after Pacific air likely floods a good portion of the CONUS in December.

 

In general, basin wide El Nino winters favor a negative NAO as you head farther into winter, although not as strongly as modoki events. The three moderate to strong basin wide El Nino events since 1950 that had a +QBO as we’ll have this winter featured decent AO/NAO blocking by February, after a warm December and up and down January. Research done on October snow advance in Eurasia by Dr. Judah Cohen and on October N. Pacific sea level pressure by Al Marinaro both suggest that trends this month also support a –AO/NAO this winter.

 

In general, a rising +PNA could limit California/west coast rainfall by later in winter. Hopefully they’re very active before then, as they desperately need the rain. The eastern US looks cold/active for the second half of winter, after a potentially very slow start.

 

The potential bust factor here revolves around how the Nino behaves. Other basin wide El Nino events with such a warm Indian Ocean (1987-88, 2002-03) saw more MJO activity than normal for stronger EL Nino winters, which likely contributed to a favorable pattern for eastern US snow. If this event becomes more strongly east based, this may not be able to occur. Another overall question mark is if all of the correlations discussed, small sample size for some of them notwithstanding, hold up with such a strong El Nino. We may learn quite a bit this winter…hopefully not at the expense of this forecast.

 

Analogs, based on good SST matches globally and QBO:

 

1957-58, 1987-88 (2), 2002-03, 2006-07

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47089-my-2015-2016-winter-outlook/

 

A winter forecast from the States. When you sign in, you got the possibility to see the charts.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Thank you - as always - for your thoughts Tamara.

 

It's a shame solar activity has been so feeble over the past 6 months or so as high activity would have in theory mitigated the possible impact of the westerly QBO

 

I'll put the Indian Ocean SST forcing to one side for the time being (though I'm still going to check out those warm IO + El Nino analogues out of interest).

 

I'm fascinated by the nature of this basin-wide El Nino and it's potential implications. The U.S. to Hawaii band of +ve SST anomalies is also setting my mind whirring. A basin-wide super El Nino with benefits?  :shok:  :D

 

 

Alas, there's a particularly terrible side-effect of this event due to slam into the western coast of Mexico today; Category 5 hurricane Patricia with top sustained winds of 200 mph gusting to 245 mph. Yes, you read that right! Thoughts go out to those in the firing line - the NHC are making good use of the word 'catastrophic' this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Great post Tamara. We await the coming winters'  synoptic developments with bated breath.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

 

The wildcard MJO event looks odds on to take place now. Is this the atmosphere giving the El Nino the middle finger? Checking the GWO outlook from GEFS to see whether this MJO event might bring about an east-Asian MT event, I see little sign - which if I'm right is a reflection of the model not projecting the MJO to progress beyond the western Indian Ocean. ECMF on the other hand... makes me think about how entertaining it would be to see wave breaking into the strat. from an EAMT followed by wave breaking via the Rockies in line with a typical El Nino configuration. What would you say the odds are off that... or am I straying wide of the mark?

 

I can see where ECMF might be coming from, given that the Indian Ocean continues to feature impressively strong and widespread positive SST anomalies. Not that co-operation from the atmosphere is even close to a given, of course.

 

sst.daily.anom.gif

 

On top of this, I find myself wondering how that huge tongue of highly anomalous warmth extending west from the U.S. toward Hawaii might impact Rossby wave formation in that region? Given that El Nino events encourage their formation with the component trough across the Aleutians and ridge over NW N. America and W. Canada (extending well east at times), and then serves to boost their amplification considerably, could this extra band of warmth serve to further enhance the amplification? If so, would that then have the potential to lead to one of the most intense wave-breaking type strat. warming events ever observed, or would the wavelength be altered such that wave breaking would be jeopardized?

 

 

An awful lot of questions I know, but I am (perhaps insatiably) intrigued by all this. I look forward to seeing what the well informed bunch you are have to say about this... regardless of how much I have right or wrong  :D

I think that judgement on the current IO MJO wave amplification and how far east this travels need to be watched carefully. We may see some over enthusiastic forecasts regarding stage 3, but the risk is that these may get dampened down as we get closer in timeframe - much like FI strat forecasts.

 

If, and this is a big if, we see the MJO reach phase 3 in some kind of amplified state during November, then there is the possibility that this decoupling with the El Nino may have some ramifications regarding early December - an increase in wave 2 activity could occur leading to a greater meridional flow affecting the Atlantic sector. If the MJO wave gets overwhelmed by the strong EN, then a more traditional EN winter pattern may ensue. Certainly, an interesting few weeks watching the MJO coming up.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Thanks Chiono  :good:

 

ECMF has stuck to its guns today and now CANM has joined the party although only just as the MJO is decaying steadily by the time it gets so far east.

 

I'm currently compiling some thoughts for the winter and this phase 3 potential remains in the 'wildcard' folder for the time being, following input from both you and Tamara.

 

Interesting GFS 12z det. run today as in some ways it was like a souped-up version of a classic El Nino November. The U.S.-Hawaii band combining with the more or less record breaking C-E Pac tropical SST anomalies?

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

I don't think you could have anything more going on in the Pacific right now, this Nino winter is less than boring. Nor is it without many sub-plots.

 

Re GWO now on downward tendency as MJO initiates. 

post-7292-0-59505100-1445642831_thumb.gipost-7292-0-71170700-1445643362_thumb.pn

 

Studies show MJO waves to travel more quickly in ENSO years,, not without there impacts. Decent amplitude visible on the VP anomalies however, the speed of travel / degrade is of interest.

 

Bonfire night sees progression move to circle of doom time will tell for it's depart and then re-appearance time frame, also the impacts much further up in the atmosphere provide intrigue.

post-7292-0-47031600-1445643125_thumb.jp

 

2 tests of academia now - the MJO coupling and effects on Vortex Formation / Intensificaton , further to that the impact of the Strat Trop pathway vs the qQBO, lots to look out for this season...

 

 

 

 

 

post-7292-0-28651700-1445642952_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

Caution with MJO assessment currently however... as UKMO note: "...MJO not having much predictive value at present. Models had been suggesting that it should be emerging into Phase 1 by now (and into Phase 2 subsequently), however confidence in this was always low due to contamination from tropical storms messing up the OLR assimilation."

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Caution with MJO assessment currently however... as UKMO note: "...MJO not having much predictive value at present. Models had been suggesting that it should be emerging into Phase 1 by now (and into Phase 2 subsequently), however confidence in this was always low due to contamination from tropical storms messing up the OLR assimilation."

Yes, that is what I meant with over enthusiastic forecasts- they never quite reach their target. November 1987 had a large MJO/ El Nino decoupling and was followed by an early December SSW as discussed here

 https://twitter.com/chionomaniac/status/656213780448354304

Could it happen again is the question over the next couple of weeks - not the favourite but an outsider one needs to keep an eye on!

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

I thought the MJO forecasts were being over progressive as it was taking its time to depart the COD - large strides taken in the last two days.

 

ECM monthly still pushing into phase 3 ....   RSWncFi.gif

 

There are IOBW composites for temps and precip on the JMA website - those looking for signals of a frigid winter, best leave the link unopened.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/climate/ENSO/composite/index_iobw.html

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

Caution with MJO assessment currently however... as UKMO note: "...MJO not having much predictive value at present. Models had been suggesting that it should be emerging into Phase 1 by now (and into Phase 2 subsequently), however confidence in this was always low due to contamination from tropical storms messing up the OLR assimilation."

As you say Fergie, regarding OLR. The 4th Kelvin wave has begun down welling in region ENSO 1.2.

Hence the opening for a westerly wind burst pushing MJO into phase 2.

MJO will most likely return to COD and emerge back into phases 5 or 6.

El Niño is king driver until it's demise. The levels of thermal energy stored in the Pacific sink just shows how much it dictates global weather patterns.

post-21685-0-74368000-1445763469_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Mean zonal temperatures at 30hpa are above average at present with a recent up tick in temps. Probably nothing, but every little helps.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb9065.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Almost precisely the same as last year

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

According to Judah Cohen in his blog SAI and SCE are above average, altough not that high as in the last two winters.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

It is our experience that above normal polar cap geopotential height anomalies tend to persist this time of year, with embedded variability, until vertical wave activity flux becomes active.  Therefore assuming near normal vertical wave activity flux, we feel that the prediction of above normal polar cap geopotential height anomalies over the next two weeks favors above normal polar cap geopotential height anomalies and a negative bias in the AO longer term.  However for wave activity flux to become more active, the atmospheric pattern will need to project onto the tripole pattern that we have shown is favorable for increasing the energy transfer or wave activity flux between the troposphere and the stratosphere (Cohen and Jones 2012).  The models do not predict this solution for at least the next two weeks but it is still early and is something that needs to monitored.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Very striking difference this year generally in the stratosphere compared to the same period last year,which shows up nicely at 30mb.

 

2014..attachicon.gif30mb14.gif  2015..attachicon.gif30mb15.gif

 

 

PV looks to be late to the party this year.

Indeed,

 

The height anomalies suggest that the PV is neither weaker nor stronger than normal at present...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

I'm surprised nobody refers to Fergie's post

The latest Contingency Planning summary is N-D-J. That GloSea5 output is J-F-M. Note cautionary comment by seasonal team re increased SSW potential late season in today's update. In other words, the message remains consistent: coherent, cross-model support for notion of milder/wetter/poss stormier start to winter, but potential for colder flip later (this clearly v uncertain of course). But the notion of broadly +ve NAO conditions into winter at least initially has been strongly signalled by the key output (GloSea5, EC Seasonal, EuroSip) for a while now.  https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84126-winter-201516/page-34#entry3275001         

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Regarding the vertical flux we apparently need for trop-strat coupling from Cohen, are there any synoptic features we should look out for to indicate this in advance outside the Arctic. 

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

I'm surprised nobody refers to Fergie's post

The latest Contingency Planning summary is N-D-J. That GloSea5 output is J-F-M. Note cautionary comment by seasonal team re increased SSW potential late season in today's update. In other words, the message remains consistent: coherent, cross-model support for notion of milder/wetter/poss stormier start to winter, but potential for colder flip later (this clearly v uncertain of course). But the notion of broadly +ve NAO conditions into winter at least initially has been strongly signalled by the key output (GloSea5, EC Seasonal, EuroSip) for a while now.  https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84126-winter-201516/page-34#entry3275001

What's uncertain? The mold start or cold flip? Both uncertain in my book.

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

Lock down mode in place from surface through to trophisphere.

Stratosphere included and it comes as no surprise due to strength of El Niño.

Will do for next 8 weeks minimum.

What it does mean is the cold air is tightly contained. The break out I feel will be impressive when it's released.

post-21685-0-37845500-1446461809_thumb.j

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