Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016

[Yarmy]

27 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Thank you @Yarmy - I'm remiss not to give a link - wrongly assume most folks in here know where to go.

Here's another illustration of just how strange the picture is - from an article by one of the authors of the paper we have been discussing.

http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/news/press_releases/2016/16_09_Hamilton_QBOdisruption.pdf

Just one query, they are talking the opposite of what is in the other diagram where west is shaded - is it a different criteria they are describing?

It doesn't help that they talk about westward and eastward as opposed to the conventional easterly and westerly respectively. The text itself has it the wrong way round right up until the final paragraph (which is a direct quote from Dr Hamilton). So it looks like whoever wrote the press release got mixed up (I think! I'm confusing myself now).

[sebastiaan1973]

So there will be no eQBO this winterseason but another wQBO? We are in a declining phase (positive NAO), next winter in a minimum , so perheps this development is better. 2017/8 with a an EQBO and low solar activity.

[Nouska]

8 hours ago, Yarmy said:

It doesn't help that they talk about westward and eastward as opposed to the conventional easterly and westerly respectively. The text itself has it the wrong way round right up until the final paragraph (which is a direct quote from Dr Hamilton). So it looks like whoever wrote the press release got mixed up (I think! I'm confusing myself now).

Thanks, it's not a familiar jargon but makes sense now. Ant Masiello has posted a graph in the last couple of days: it does rather show why some other folk were confused too.

Wonder what happened in October 2015 - the 10mb level seems to have gone into a big deviation at that point.

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/776102504232804356

With that mess can anybody really say what effect it will have on winter circulation?

 

 

[knocker]

 

[lorenzo]

Nice find Knocker, good to get T. Dunkerton thoughts, if anyone finds the PA Newman paper that will be a good read, please post it.

Nino certainly the culprit, but where too from here with the rogue westerly interference, looking at the data table - I doubt the October figures could really herald a clean line of sight to the winter evolution.

In terms of solar cycles and Sebastiaan's point SFlux still descending to min levels, however the NAO composite ain't pretty...

Agree Nouska bit of a mess so far. November data may provide some clarity, going to be another tough winter for any kind of meaningful analogs, last season monster Nino, this season broken QBO..!

[Nouska]

7 hours ago, lorenzo said:

Nice find Knocker, good to get T. Dunkerton thoughts, if anyone finds the PA Newman paper that will be a good read, please post it.

The PA Newman paper was another nice find by @knocker

http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/agu/article/10.1002/2016GL070373/editor-highlight/

I've searched for a no paywall version but no luck to date. Maybe a presentation PDF after the AGU conference in December.

Snippet from NASA

https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/science_snapshots/rebooting_QBO_2016.php

 

 

Edited September 18, 2016 by Nouska

[lorenzo]

why i mention Paul Newman, best data available - hence most informed paper - here is to someone cracking that paywall before an inconclusive sept > oct update and leave us reliant on November for QBO steer/shear ( no pun intended)...

eg http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/Current/seasonal_strat/zmplots/U___time_lat_10hPa_zm.pdf

Note author on plot -  these link from berlin site diagnostics page > NASA GMAO reads 

For this winter given the qbo structure - would be good to map the  Berlin data to date and correlate to maximum Wave 1 episodes vs developing eQBO vs La Nina winters - this will identify where the maximum given wave amplitude exists for external forcing on the vortex.

Beyond that, the degree of internal control from the vortex will be derived by EP forcing and mesospheric down welling based on solar flux, the caveat here is that whilst 10.7 flux looks low it lags for the exit i.e whilst around 86-100 now, it has been higher for a period - this in turn inflects upon base NAO state.

Either way the wave guide for vortex disturbance is not an easy map without the QBO bellweather - if we have a mid strat that is disjointed with the normal QBO pattern we truly are in a wild card winter where one cannot imprint declining solar activity on the vortex.

If we have a winter where the solar activity forcing takes precedence over the disjointed stratospheric profile then we are in a positive NAO base state regardless of potential Nina pull through / MJO kicks -  Nina may not deliver what is required to create meaningful patterns from a cold perspective. Put politely its a record breaking winter in other areas.

Early doors = lots still to consider.  Another test this year of Arctic Sea Ice influence on the vortex strength with solar infuence declining - should help demist things. Pity the QBO - out atmospheric metronome for BDC and Holton Tan throws in a curveball the year when we really need a constant to advance our thinking.;

Recretos - any obs you can pull for W1 peaks across devel Nina winters is good !Hint 

 

 

[Snowy L]

I've got access to the paper though I'm not sure about the legality of posting it here?

 

On an unrelated note there is a great website called Sci-Hub that I found today...

[lorenzo]

Thank you Snowy L

Bookmarked - very useful...

[Nouska]

On 18/09/2016 at 10:52, lorenzo said:

Nino certainly the culprit, but where too from here with the rogue westerly interference, looking at the data table - I doubt the October figures could really herald a clean line of sight to the winter evolution.

Another discussion that would point to this being the case.

Do strong warm ENSO events control the phase of the stratospheric QBO?

Abstract

Although there in general are no significant long-term correlations between the QBO and the ENSO in observations we find that the QBO and the ENSO were aligned in the 3 to 4 years after the three warm ENSO events in 1982, 1997, and 2015. We investigate this indicated relationship with a version of the EC-Earth climate model which includes non-orographic gravity waves. We analyze the modelled QBO in ensembles forced with climatological SSTs and observed SSTs. In the ensemble with observed SSTs we find a strong and significant alignment of the ensemble members in the equatorial stratospheric winds in the 2 to 4 years after the strong ENSO event in 1997. This alignment also includes the observed QBO. No such alignment is found in the ensemble with climatological SSTs. These results indicate that strong warm ENSO events can lock the phase of the QBO.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070751/abstract

[Bright and Breezy]

Don't think this paper has been linked in here. Thought it might be of interest. 

FEELING THE PULSE OF THE STRATOSPHERE

An Emerging Opportunity for Predicting Continental- Scale Cold-Air Outbreaks 1 Month in Advance

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00287.1

[sebastiaan1973]

According to some posters at american weather the lastest EC seasonal shows a negative AO and NAO (easterly variant) .

Although not certain how reliable this source is. We have to wait for Fergie.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48174-winter-20162017-because-its-never-too-early/?page=34

Edited October 3, 2016 by sebastiaan1973

[coldwinter]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

According to some posters at american weather the lastest EC seasonal shows a negative AO and NAO (easterly variant) .

Although not certain how reliable this source is. We have to wait for Fergie.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48174-winter-20162017-because-its-never-too-early/?page=34

Isnt that talking about the update from September? I believe Fergie will update us for this months run later in the week

Ryan

[lorenzo]

On 9/29/2016 at 10:00, Bright and Breezy said:

Don't think this paper has been linked in here. Thought it might be of interest. 

FEELING THE PULSE OF THE STRATOSPHERE

An Emerging Opportunity for Predicting Continental- Scale Cold-Air Outbreaks 1 Month in Advance

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00287.1

Thank you for the update @Bright and Breezy - note that one of the authors is Van den dool - one of the seasonal model bellweather's from the NOAA CPC Constructed SSTA anomaly forecasts..

Right now I think the ASI correlation hinted at due to low ice years may be pulling through, not Cohen, but new dynamic that correlats Vortex intensification with Solar / geomag input.. Given declining Sunspot activity and trend solid, the offset is the NAO positive of the declining solar regime vs the NAO negative of things tipping the edge.

Decreased Arctic Sea Ice was thought to inhibit vortes development, perhaps this has a lagged effect over years vs isolating initial years, am thinking about this in line with electron particle forcing and the NAO.

For the NAO - we have background science that indicates prevalent NAO positive - with a flip mid winter.. so this is a great watch right now.. as in previous years we had the OPI etc  -

We all have the gut for a read on Winter from October files / reanalysis / regimes... Blocked is on the cards... 

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Thank you for the update @Bright and Breezy - note that one of the authors is Van den dool - one of the seasonal model bellweather's from the NOAA CPC Constructed SSTA anomaly forecasts..

Right now I think the ASI correlation hinted at due to low ice years may be pulling through, not Cohen, but new dynamic that correlats Vortex intensification with Solar / geomag input.. Given declining Sunspot activity and trend solid, the offset is the NAO positive of the declining solar regime vs the NAO negative of things tipping the edge.

Decreased Arctic Sea Ice was thought to inhibit vortes development, perhaps this has a lagged effect over years vs isolating initial years, am thinking about this in line with electron particle forcing and the NAO.

For the NAO - we have background science that indicates prevalent NAO positive - with a flip mid winter.. so this is a great watch right now.. as in previous years we had the OPI etc  -

We all have the gut for a read on Winter from October files / reanalysis / regimes... Blocked is on the cards... 

Sorry Lorenzo, with regards to your last paragraph, are you referring to a blocked winter ahead?

[lorenzo]

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x/abstract

May 1990 this definition of the above, refers to atmospheric blocking.

It has many other precursors now.. no clues for this winter,this early. Of interest in this regard are altering GLAAM states and Rossby wave breaks, given we had anomalous Rossby wave action last winter disturbing the vortex out of sync.Moreover, developing over winter was a once in 58 years QBO anomaly ( some things you never think of eh! )

I like the predication to archangel / Scandi / Taymyr blocking, am fearful of rapid VI this season, or resurgent sunspot activity, aiding deep, cold acceleration of vortex..

I said blocking on the cards in switching meridional regimes. Not episodes as in 'atmosphere stuck in pattern'.. we have had previous hints at Canadian Warmings, these on Berlin are shown as a late 70's or 80's 'thing', another factor here is the much examined AMOC and also the work on the NATL Jet currently under ongoing tests. Paper Q1 next year..

Our background elements are clear, waning ENSO, waning, solar, QBO wrly, decreasing GLAAM, EP Particle forcing trend- what we do not have is the coherent Sea Ice, snow advance anomaly, any OPI things. I say coherent Sea Ice as this last half decade has held no meaningful correlation.

 

[bluearmy]

is it unusual at this time of year for the strat vortex to be showing an upcoming split as high as 30hpa? , the ECM 1z run seems to almost get there on its 12z run. 

Surely the the strat vortex should be intensifying high up through October or are anomolys like this not too relevant so early in the season? 

[bobbydog]

15 hours ago, bluearmy said:

is it unusual at this time of year for the strat vortex to be showing an upcoming split as high as 30hpa? , the ECM 1z run seems to almost get there on its 12z run. 

Surely the the strat vortex should be intensifying high up through October or are anomolys like this not too relevant so early in the season? 

hi BA, i was wondering that myself. i'm not sure when the vortex is supposed to 'get itself together' but early disruption should help to prevent it strengthening going into winter. as you say though, it could be quite normal (or not...) but i'm sure one of the experts will be along soon to help us out.

[MattH]

15 hours ago, bluearmy said:

is it unusual at this time of year for the strat vortex to be showing an upcoming split as high as 30hpa? , the ECM 1z run seems to almost get there on its 12z run. 

Surely the the strat vortex should be intensifying high up through October or are anomolys like this not too relevant so early in the season? 

Good spot this one, saw this today too. Even up to 10hPa it is looking rather unimpressive and elongated/stretched as well on the EC charts. One thing I have found with those EC charts though is like any model, sometimes beyond 144hrs, or even less, what they show one day has no relevance to what they are showing a few days down the line. It is, however, interesting that it seems particularly 'sluggish' to get going this year, especially regarding the level of organisation, you can see this over on the zonal charts on the NASA site. Whilst not a like-for-like comparison, I tweeted the following on the 19th of October last year looking ahead towards the end of the month, clearly whilst this relates to the 10hPa level, it seems a far more organised and 'powerful' feature as last October progressed compared to how it has started this October...

Unlike this time last year when the 'writing was on the wall' regarding the winter overall, or least the opening thrid of it, this year it is certainly a different ball game. The situation with the QBO in recent months is certainly very different, the likes of the SAI, as per Cohen has proved to be a 'bust' for the last few years, so less weight is being put on that setup, or it is in my opinion. There's certainly a foundation of signals, like there are every year, but the difference this year is there are a lot of unknowns which, in itself, does make it far more interesting and exciting. It'll be interesting to publish the winter forecast towards the end of November, in association with Lorenzo (Tony), but especially if the organisation of the strat vortex continues to be far less than as would be expected, then it really will be a difficult forecast to produce this year. All those 'having a go' are in the same boat really, even over in the US, differences and variations continue to be in evidence.

Will certainly be interesting to see how things go with the strat vortex in the coming weeks, one thing I will say though and that is I think there is little chance of this winter being a repeat of last winter and, if it is something more 'average', then that will certainly be, at times, noteworthy in comparison to the likes of last year.

Regards, Matt.

[Gael_Force]

17 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

hi BA, i was wondering that myself. i'm not sure when the vortex is supposed to 'get itself together' but early disruption should help to prevent it strengthening going into winter. as you say though, it could be quite normal (or not...) but i'm sure one of the experts will be along soon to help us out.

The Attard site shows climatological height anomalies for 65 north. 8 day forecast for 50mb shows it is outwith the norm.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php

 

[bobbydog]

thanks @MVH and @Gael_Force exactly what i (and bluearmy) wanted to know. now we have a reference point for the PV going into the season. i might perodically check the archive charts and compare where we are strat-wise to last year.

[tcc]

Off topic (sorry) and it could have been covered elsewhere, but I thought Chino along with Tony tended to do he Winter Forecast? Will Chino still look after the Strat thread this year?

I mean it's great that we have Matt to write it up this year (along with Tony) as his knowledge is second to none so it will be a great read! Just wondering what happened to Chino

 

 

 

[MattH]

1 hour ago, tcc said:

Off topic (sorry) and it could have been covered elsewhere, but I thought Chino along with Tony tended to do he Winter Forecast? Will Chino still look after the Strat thread this year?

I mean it's great that we have Matt to write it up this year (along with Tony) as his knowledge is second to none so it will be a great read! Just wondering what happened to Chino

 

 

 

Hi, simply put Chino (Ed) can't do it this year because he is too busy. Obviously I won't speak for Ed, he can fill in the gaps, but I think it's a simple case of 'work life' getting in the way, so I'll be 'giving it a go', but probably in a different kind of structure to the last few years, for a few reasons, one being how potentially complex and difficult this years prediction is likely to be. Attempting to put 'too much meat on the bone' this year may well lead to a very messy and potentially untidy forecast. A combination of all the usual analoges, teleconnections and the likes will be there, but with perhaps more emphasis on some of the seasonal models available for discussion as well.

If it doesn't go down well, there's always the Express you can look at in the next few months!

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, MVH said:

Hi, simply put Chino (Ed) can't do it this year because he is too busy. Obviously I won't speak for Ed, he can fill in the gaps, but I think it's a simple case of 'work life' getting in the way, so I'll be 'giving it a go', but probably in a different kind of structure to the last few years, for a few reasons, one being how potentially complex and difficult this years prediction is likely to be. Attempting to put 'too much meat on the bone' this year may well lead to a very messy and potentially untidy forecast. A combination of all the usual analoges, teleconnections and the likes will be there, but with perhaps more emphasis on some of the seasonal models available for discussion as well.

If it doesn't go down well, there's always the Express you can look at in the next few months!

Just want to say its great to see you posting here matt, i remember you from TWO years and years ago, as a fellow lancastrian lets hope for some polar north westerlies, something that has been as rare as a frigid easterly since the 80's..:)

[blizzard81]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Just want to say its great to see you posting here matt, i remember you from TWO years and years ago, as a fellow lancastrian lets hope for some polar north westerlies, something that has been as rare as a frigid easterly since the 80's..:)

Ha ha, I must admit, I was wondering if it was the same MVH. So glad it is.