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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016


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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

I believe there is a strange split going on, as near the surface we saw the traditional turn to easterly anomalies, but further up the westerlies have continued unabated. In fact there has recently been some apparent propagation upward toward the 10 mb level, where easterly anomalies were in place a couple of months back but have now gone AWOL.

It is an extremely peculiar development and one I would love to learn more about. My scientific side is rubbing its hands in anticipation of the research that I imagine will be undertaken with respect to it.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
On 8/5/2016 at 23:09, Gael_Force said:

What's your thoughts on the twitter conversations around the QBO behaving erratically?

Perhaps the answer lies here.

Quote

Abstract

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a tropical lower stratospheric, downward propagating zonal wind variation, with an average period of ~28 months. The QBO has been constantly documented since 1953. Here we describe the evolution of the QBO during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015-16 using radiosonde observations and meteorological reanalyses. Normally, the QBO would show a steady downward propagation of the westerly phase. In 2015-16, there was an anomalous upward displacement of this westerly phase from ~30 hPa to 15 hPa. These westerlies impinge on, or “cut-off” the normal downward propagation of the easterly phase. In addition, easterly winds develop at 40 hPa. Comparisons to tropical wind statistics for the 1953-present record demonstrate that this 2015-16 QBO disruption is unprecedented.

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

Could the amount of methane in the atmosphere cause disruption to the QBO and change the period?

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
38 minutes ago, Fat Bloke said:

Too many cows around :rofl::rofl:

or politicians   :fool:  soz, off topic...:oops:

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Thanks for those Recretos :good: It's interesting to see that little region of W anomalies moving gradually from the N. Hem to the S. Hem. 

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

A couple of screen grabs from https://twitter.com/splillo

CpHaInvUsAE5FTH.jpg  CpxhzEVWcAACSKU.jpgCqe-W_yUkAE6A_1.jpg    Crwqr2hVUAEoZzN.png

Still racing beyond the norm - anybody with better eyesight work out the other years with spikes.

AGU Fall meeting schedule for ....

The dynamical processes of stratosphere-troposphere interactions and their relationship with climate.

Looks to be some interesting new presentations on the menu.

https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/preliminaryview.cgi/Session13040

 

Edited by Nouska
Added latest MQI image.
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
14 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

@Gael, seems to me as a delay.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

-> Weak La nina.

GLOSEA5 shows a positive NAO-phase, similiar of the declining phase of solar activity.

I need that hat!

 

 

2cat_20160801_z500_months46_global_deter_public.png

make.png.d89769de394dec7345fac172742a21ae.png

This looks dreadful! How reliable is GLOSEA5 at this range?

I was hoping for something better with the near neutral enso conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
22 hours ago, karyo said:

This looks dreadful! How reliable is GLOSEA5 at this range?

I was hoping for something better with the near neutral enso conditions.

Been pretty good since its arrived

however, it hasn't been tested in a cold winter - odds seem it may not be for another year at least! 

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

@karyo Here's the winter prediction statement the Met office issued for last winter. Some of the graphics from GloSea5 included. But.....remember.... it was issued with runs from NOVEMBER.

http://medcof.aemet.es/images/doc_events/medcof5/docMedcof5/presentaciones/MedCOF5_Brookshaw.pdf

Far too early to be thinking of that - we've got a season of powerful cyclones, query ENSO and query QBO that could all shake the tree a bit. :D

If it's OK to reproduce a graphic, here's strat. ensembles from last year - you can see why so bullish for late winter SSW.

6f8b26fc38715d43b8ba2a89f72eceec.png

Edited by Nouska
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

glbz700MonInd4.gif
You never know, we might sneak an interesting December :crazy::laugh:

The 3-month mean from CFSv2 is not too dissimilar to that of GloSea5 - mostly just weaker with the magnitude of the anomalies.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Can't be doing with another cr*p winter. If it has to be mild, let's at least have it dry!

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
16 hours ago, karyo said:

Thanks guys,

@singularity, what's so interesting about the December chart you posted?

My guess would be that it's the height anomalies over the Polar regions that's interesting. It'd suggest a weaker than usual Polar vortex. Very early days yet though. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
On 8/23/2016 at 10:42, Ravelin said:

My guess would be that it's the height anomalies over the Polar regions that's interesting. It'd suggest a weaker than usual Polar vortex. Very early days yet though. 

That's right - it suggests potential for cold weather patterns - but unfortunately, nothing more than that. Generally I find that with CFS the best you can do is think about what could happen given the broad-scale signals, without paying too much attention to the more regional detail, as I don't really trust the model's ability to reliably find the right placement of the major troughs and ridges.

Curiously, CFS has not only held on to such anomalies as of 29th August 2016, but extended them through January. There's even the slightest of signals for lowered heights across Europe but, well, the caveats are so big they could support a herd of elephants.

glbz700MonInd5.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
On 22/08/2016 at 08:41, bluearmy said:

Been pretty good since its arrived

however, it hasn't been tested in a cold winter - odds seem it may not be for another year at least! 

Wow! Is that the earliest ever winter is over post?

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-50.80,91.86,477/loc=-84.426,27.253

For those who seek - there are subtle hints at the 10 hPa level now. Interestingly there's a more pronounced circulation at 70 hPa on the Atlantic side.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Good to see the Westerlies are on the descent once again, I hadn't realised that.

From a purely scientific pov it is going to be absolutely fascinating to see whether or not this was just a blip. That we won't know for a while though.

The notion that this is climate driven is not a particularly palatable one. If it turned out to be the case (taking into account that it will be nigh on impossible to prove or disprove) then we have a tipping point mechanism in place. The effects on the ground of which in this instance may be anywhere from negligible to catastrophic. By catastrophic I mean set off a chain reaction through our weather drivers, the very worst case scenario.

Anyway, highly improbable scenarios aside, personally I don't buy into the purely climate driven angle. 

The recent El Nino was the strongest to have occurred over the period the QBO has been recorded and there are obvious links between the QBO and ENSO, sat on the equator. I haven't looked yet but if this were to be the case, I would imagine there would be at least a weak correlation between stronger El Ninos events and a slower descent of westerly winds as we returned towards ENSO neutral.

Maybe it is all just a big heap of confirmation bias but what with the anomalous Atlantic cold pool and apparent slow down of the Gulf stream, you do have to wonder...?

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

This illustration of the historic QBO cycle does not show anything out of the ordinary for the previous very strong El Nino events. In fact, the '97/'98 looked to be a smooth and fast transition downwards.

qbo_wind.jpg

The 30mb figure increased again in August so the downward progression appears to still be out of kilter.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Edited by Nouska
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