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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016


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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
33 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's a bit unfair, blizzard81...How learned are you when it comes to Slovenian idioms? :D

Ha ha :) , I love the sound of Slovenian idioms but I must admit I do not know of any ;) 

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
56 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

To my amateur eye, the ECM charts look the "best" they have all winter...? The rounder the stratospheric high and more squashed the polar vortex, the better....?

I'd agree with that. The U wind forecast looks very interesting at D10.

image.thumb.jpg.17ba0227ca4fd03d17d56aba

Still a little way off an 'official' SSW but I wouldn't be surprised to see an ECM forecast pop up in the next few days that depicts one.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

I'd agree with that. The U wind forecast looks very interesting at D10.

image.thumb.jpg.17ba0227ca4fd03d17d56aba

Still a little way off an 'official' SSW but I wouldn't be surprised to see an ECM forecast pop up in the next few days that depicts one.

Yes was about to post on this myself.

Having noticed the ECM trend a few days ago and it continues.If compared to the forecast for today-quite a drop off of those ZW speeds from the top down welling.

ecmwfzm_u_f24.thumb.gif.adba88e965bedce756a332bd441af_ecmwfzm_u_f240(1).thumb.gi

A look at the temperatures see the warmer air filtering down

ecmwfzm_t_a12.thumb.gif.822bed026ad8bccdecmwfzm_t_f240.thumb.gif.74b01c90797b884

that cold core though at mid-levels is very resilient at the moment so not yet a knockout blow,Still signs though from both ECM and GFS of the main vortex being displaced over to the Siberian side.

ecmwf30f24.thumb.gif.82949a76bdb906685bcecmwf30f240.thumb.gif.1a2aabd679a6760f56

gfs_z30_nh_f00.thumb.png.73dc2aa88caec23gfs_z30_nh_f240.thumb.png.2125ebb70b0e12

so it's on the move but whether it will help with our chances for a colder pattern at trop. level reamains to be seen.At least whilst we continue to see these forecasts weakening the vortex we are still in the game.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire

GFS 00Z Zonal winds drop to 11.9 m/s at 384hrs, edging closer to a technical SSW forecast

ssw8.thumb.png.aef5df67cc0c4bc205c6394fa

Reversal at 1mb of -6.0 m/s

Edited by TomDav
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East

Things continue to look interesting up in the Strat then. Considering the time frame in which a SSW could happen and when the effects could be felt, early/mid February isn't off the table as far as I'm concerned. Which is why I'm not too bothered with the current model outputs for the rest of January into February, by that time if all goes to plan we could be looking at some wintry conditions arriving again ... Provided the split/displacement follows the correct path to benefit us.

Edited by wishingforsnow
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8 hours ago, Recretos said:

Well, I think I meant right

 

 

 

Meaning: to support a cause only because it is popular to do so. If you 'jump on the bandwagon', you join a growing movement in support of someone or something when that movement is seen to be about to become successful.
 

I'm fairly sure Recretos has got a phd is meteorology or if not is just a genius either way I'm sure there's not much he doesn't know.... even with English as second language :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
33 minutes ago, TomDav said:

GFS 00Z Zonal winds drop to 11.9 m/s at 384hrs, edging closer to a technical SSW forecast

ssw8.thumb.png.aef5df67cc0c4bc205c6394fa

Reversal at 1mb of -6.0 m/s

384 hours....again! Is this thing getting any closer?

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
10 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

 

Way too serious on here sometimes lol. My comment was meant as a light hearted remark that was taken out of context. Anyway, lets hope the strat can rescue our thus far very woeful winter. Keep smiling :)

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

384 hours....again! Is this thing getting any closer?

Was thinking the same thing. Always at the end of the run!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Way too serious on here sometimes lol. My comment was meant as a light hearted remark that was taken out of context. Anyway, lets hope the strat can rescue our thus far very woeful winter. Keep smiling :)

My response was also meant to be lighthearted, blizz...Even smilies don't always have the desired effect?:D

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

My response was also meant to be lighthearted, blizz...Even smilies don't always have the desired effect?:D

I know Ed. Always good to throw a little humour into everything you do :) even the serious things in life. I find it makes life much lighter and happy in nature :)

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

I'm glad of this thread at times like this, when the amount of taking the models at face value despite the unusual climatic situation in the MOD thread is at eye-watering levels.

Of course adds a degree of wariness when looking at the far reaches of GFS. At the moment it keeps placing a major trough further east than is theoretically expected in the run-up to it's second and more dramatic bout of warming. So the location and orientation could adjust a bit along with the intensity... in either direction.

 

Bringing ECM into the picture, and the day 10 charts from last night's effort do look remarkably close to a technical SSW which is quite something given GFS' persistent signalling for a separate, stronger event a week or so later.

For the sake of it, I must ask - if both warming events managed to achieve technical SSW status (at least by the definition most used on here), how rare would that be?

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
25 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Bringing ECM into the picture, and the day 10 charts from last night's effort do look remarkably close to a technical SSW which is quite something given GFS' persistent signalling for a separate, stronger event a week or so later.

For the sake of it, I must ask - if both warming events managed to achieve technical SSW status (at least by the definition most used on here), how rare would that be?

There is quite a difference then with the gfs at the same timeframe which has a less intense warming. It will be interesting to see which model has got this right.

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

Great post above.

 

Wave 1 reaches peak on 25th January. 

There is a second burst of Kinetic energy on the 29th January. Although not as strong as initial.

The ECMWF supports GEFS on this forecast. GEFS forecast double phase approximately 7 days ago which at the time appeared to be an error. 

image.jpg

image.jpg

image.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Hang on... GFS has changed its tune a bit as it adjusts how the trop. pattern pans out in the 7-14 day period. 

gfsnh-10-300.png?12 gfsnh-10-348.png?12 gfsnh-10-384.png?12

The warming is not as intense in terms of peak temperature at 10 hPA, but the way it moves is far better than we have been seeing should it be another displacement event. The country dance means the vortex, having briefly headed back west a little, ends up back toward Europe and in a further-weakened state.

What do you peeps make of this - and does it link to changes in the trop. pattern as I implied or is it more to do with differences in propagation down from the top? TIA 

Edit: having read through Interitus' post carefully I realise changes in the location of the major troughs in the trop. will indeed be altering where the warming is focused. The 'country dance' where they rotate around a central point is then, I figure, a consequence of the geopotential heights shifting as the warming breaks through the surf zone, or something along those lines?

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The 12z GFS moves the start of the second warming at 280 hours. Up to now, it was always showing after the 300 hour mark so that's a positive.

However, the intensity of this warming appears to have decreased and by the end of the run (8th February) it fizzles out.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
38 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 12z GFS moves the start of the second warming at 280 hours. Up to now, it was always showing after the 300 hour mark so that's a positive.

However, the intensity of this warming appears to have decreased and by the end of the run (8th February) it fizzles out.

Beggars can't be choosers.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

I am getting the feeling that the second warming is not going to do us any favours. The gfs shows the beginning of it around the 250 hour mark in Asia. It quickly pushes the vortex back westwards over Greenland. Also, its intensity is considerably reduced compared to a few days ago so it only slightly weakens the vortex.

According to Ian Ferguson the GLOSEA model doesn't show a SSW yet so we probably have to look for the second half of February.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
12 hours ago, karyo said:

I am getting the feeling that the second warming is not going to do us any favours. The gfs shows the beginning of it around the 250 hour mark in Asia. It quickly pushes the vortex back westwards over Greenland. Also, its intensity is considerably reduced compared to a few days ago so it only slightly weakens the vortex.

According to Ian Ferguson the GLOSEA model doesn't show a SSW yet so we probably have to look for the second half of February.

Seeing as warmings work clockwise I would think that if it has enough umpf after the GL > Scandi > GL would it then push itself back to the Scandi locale?

 

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