Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016

[Ruben Amsterdam]

Here is some long range magic from CFSv2 daily ensembles, which I finally managed to average the right way, and they seem to be doing a good job, continuing with the promotion of the vigorous wave1.

 

  

 

Gonna add the NASA model, which I find to be very interesting, and going to 240h, it has forecasting potential together with ECMWF, FIM-9, GFS, JMA and ensemble guidance. 

 

 

Nice graphics again Recretos! However, I have the sneaky suspicion that CFS is still thinking "Siberian High" while this has already vanished from GFS FI.

Edited November 24, 2015 by Ruben Amsterdam

[Nick F]

The strat polar vortex continues to strengthen into the purveyor of doom as per fall in 30 hPa temp at the pole

 

 

... worth perhaps keeping an eye on Wavenumber 1 activity which  seems to be on the up:

 

[mountain shadow]

Far outer reaches of the GFS 6z show a very stretched looking vortex.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[mountain shadow]

Cohen latest

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Pretty much sums up most long rangers. ..no NW Euro cold till mid January.

[Singularity]

Oh trust me, a full on wave 1 can be a harder case for the vortex to handle than a wave 2. if the vortex is strong, it can take the "energy" of the 2-wave and use it to its own advantage, remaining firm in place, unless a strong enough temp. waves are following. While in a full blown wave 1 it will get shoved out of place before it can say "is that a wave1 coming at me...". Of course with the normal disclaimers, like each scenario is different and each situation is unique.

 

Nothing is ever as simple as one imagines...   

 

Can a powerful vortex fall apart following a mighty shove from wave 1? If so then my impression of it relative to wave 2 has soared in the space of a few minutes.

 

As for the vortex taking the 'energy' of the 2-wave - that sounds like a gateway to some complex physics but if anyone knows of a relative paper, I'd appreciate the opportunity to read into it and I imagine there are a few others on here who would too 

[lorenzo]

This should be a useful starting point on splits and displacements, a search on the title will link to pdf dox. by authours and bibliogrpahy a good track back too.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00030.1

 

Also http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/charlton%2Bpolvani-JCLIM-2007.pdf

Edited November 24, 2015 by lorenzo

[Ruben Amsterdam]

The January 2013 SSW is a nice example of how powerful wave 1 can be. 

 

Link to youtube: youtu.be/EjGcvtxlh1s

Edited November 25, 2015 by Ruben Amsterdam

[Steve C]

Going back to the tsar bomba question. I think I read somewhere that the amount of energy we receive from the Sun in one month is about equivalent to the energy released in the Chicxulub dinosaur extinction event - circa 100M megatons. This is about 2M X tsar bomba, or tsar bomba energy in a little over a second. With the absence of much dust being thrown into the atmosphere, I'm sceptical that tsar bomba could have been a big factor in the '63 winter.

[bluearmy]

Little splodge of +5c shows up at the end of the 12z gfs op at the top of the strat. wonder if this is the start or another false dawn re the small warmings that are surfing around the edges high up.

[chionomaniac]

Little splodge of +5c shows up at the end of the 12z gfs op at the top of the strat. wonder if this is the start or another false dawn re the small warmings that are surfing around the edges high up.

I've been keeping an eye on this and that is definitely the strongest warming at 1hPa so far since the season began. Little acorns and all of that!

[damianslaw]

Always enjoy reading this thread through the winter months, its usually very level headed and free from the drama of the model discussion thread. I remember Dec 2012 well, and events close to Christmas, speculation of a SSW and then seeing this followed through in early Jan.

 

Pity we didn't have the thread back in 2009 when we saw a sudden event at the end of Jan, that had quite a dramatic affect.. I wonder if the net weather forecast is based somewhat on what happened back in 2009, when we saw a very cold 2 week snowy spell, quickly followed by a very mild very dry sunny spell second half of Feb. Feb 2009 indeed was an oddity in this respect.

Edited November 26, 2015 by damianslaw

[chionomaniac]

Always enjoy reading this thread through the winter months, its usually very level headed and free from the drama of the model discussion thread. I remember Dec 2012 well, and events close to Christmas, speculation of a SSW and then seeing this followed through in early Jan.

 

Pity we didn't have the thread back in 2009 when we saw a sudden event at the end of Jan, that had quite a dramatic affect.. I wonder if the net weather forecast is based somewhat on what happened back in 2009, when we saw a very cold 2 week snowy spell, quickly followed by a very mild very dry sunny spell second half of Feb. Feb 2009 indeed was an oddity in this respect.

It was the first year the thread was run damian....https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/50299-stratosphere-temperature-watch/

[chionomaniac]

Check out these forecasts - we were getting very excited!

 

 

[damianslaw]

Thanks - I couldn't quite remember the thread back then.. I'm more interested I whether the effect through Feb was forecast i.e. the sudden flip from very cold to very mild?

[chionomaniac]

Yes - but convincing anyone that the early Feb easterly was strat related was another matter....

[bluearmy]

I've been keeping an eye on this and that is definitely the strongest warming at 1hPa so far since the season began. Little acorns and all of that!

Even at 10hpa, the 18z looks interesting by the end ( and the heights also attracting attention)

we could be embarking on the long march .............

Edited November 26, 2015 by bluearmy

[Glacier Point]

Extended range modelling has wave 1 forcing written all over it for mid December onwards, and if gfs is anywhere near the mark, wave 2 also in the mix. Should be fun watching the normally over-progressive gfs op in the next few days / weeks?

And, we have a likely tropospheric injection of angular momentum in the next 2 weeks leading to greater amplification. Interesting.

[chionomaniac]

Even at 10hpa, the 18z looks interesting by the end ( and the heights also attracting attention)

we could be embarking on the long march .............

 

 

Extended range modelling has wave 1 forcing written all over it for mid December onwards, and if gfs is anywhere near the mark, wave 2 also in the mix. Should be fun watching the normally over-progressive gfs op in the next few days / weeks?

And, we have a likely tropospheric injection of angular momentum in the next 2 weeks leading to greater amplification. Interesting.

Ha! I think we are putting our feet on that long road....

 

 

Whose joining us for the trip?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Extended range modelling has wave 1 forcing written all over it for mid December onwards, and if gfs is anywhere near the mark, wave 2 also in the mix. Should be fun watching the normally over-progressive gfs op in the next few days / weeks?

And, we have a likely tropospheric injection of angular momentum in the next 2 weeks leading to greater amplification. Interesting.

 

Oh how I wish you were able to give us those in depth outlooks like you used to. However, I'm certainly detecting excitable undertones to that post.

[Hocus Pocus]

Very interesting update though I must confess I struggle at times with the chicken and egg scenario of the SSW and all the jargon involved, however despite my own shortcomings I thoroughly enjoy reading all the titbits and info on what may happen down the line.

[Woollymummy]

Very interesting update though I must confess I struggle at times with the chicken and egg scenario of the SSW and all the jargon involved, however despite my own shortcomings I thoroughly enjoy reading all the titbits and info on what may happen down the line.

Here's a nice cosy bedtime story once you all have your hot water bottles and blankets sorted :

http://youtu.be/1MiUlTthSNA

â˜â„⛄

[Hocus Pocus]

Here's a nice cosy bedtime story once you all have your hot water bottles and blankets sorted :http://youtu.be/1MiUlTthSNA

â˜â„⛄

Oh I've watched that before and read all the dummies guide to SSW, but this dummy still struggles with all the jargon despite me studying meteorology for the best part of 35 years.

[MPG]

Extended range modelling has wave 1 forcing written all over it for mid December onwards, and if gfs is anywhere near the mark, wave 2 also in the mix. Should be fun watching the normally over-progressive gfs op in the next few days / weeks?

And, we have a likely tropospheric injection of angular momentum in the next 2 weeks leading to greater amplification. Interesting.

Is this what we have just seen the GFS playing with in the models?

[Neilsouth]

 

These are so cool!

[bluearmy]

looking through the berlin data this morning, we have some wave 1 and 2 activity ongoing which isnt particularly strong but does serve to keep zonal winds a little in check and pushes the strongest winds high up in the strat further south, allowing a slight relaxation of the flow at higher latitude over the polar region.

 

however, yesterdays op ecm run reduces the wave activity over time and the zonal flow strengthens. one assumes that without some further wave activity appearing, the vortex could become 'a monster' through december. coldies need to hope for amplification in the trop to force some more wave activity. a lack of amplification through the first 10 days of december could scupper some of the expectations we have for early jan, stratosperically.  

 

yes, only one run but it does illustrate the need for ongoing ridging in the trop.