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Tropical Depression 19E has developed well south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, at quite low lattitude. Winds are at 30kts. 19E seems poised to strengthen. Waters are very warm and expected to remain warm along track for the next 5 days. Shear is also forecast to remain low through this time. Therefore, 19E has plenty of time to strengthen. NHC are conservatively forecasting a 90kt intensity by day 4 and 5, though some models have been indicating 19E will get stronger than this. The system shouldn't be a threat to land.

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19E has become Tropical Storm Olaf, with winds of 45kts. The storm is heading westwards but will begin to turn west-northwest, then north, soon. The storm could well undergo a period of rapid intensification soon, as conditions are highly conducive. NHC are forecasting a peak of 100kts, but Olaf could get stronger than this.

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Olaf has become a hurricane with winds of 65kts. Interestingly, at just 9.4°N, this is the lowest lattitude hurricane formation on record in the Eastern Pacific according to NHC.

Olaf should continue to intensify. The forecast still calls for Olaf to become a major hurricane, and outlines the possibility of rapid intensification over the next 24hr.

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Olaf has become a category 2 hurricane with winds of 85kts. Although no clear eye is evident on satellite imagery, one does exist on microwave imagery, so will probably clear out soon. Olaf continues generally westwards and should move into the Central Pacific (another one!), later today. Further intensification is expected over the next few days as shear remains low, waters warm, and moisture in the region high. In about 4-5 days time, some slow weakening may occur as sea temperatures begin to cool along track and the air becomes a little drier.

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Olaf's small, well defined eye is clearing out. Winds are up to 100kts, making Olaf a category 3 major hurricane. Further intensification is expected as Olaf remains in a favourable environment for the next few days. NHC expect a cat 4, 125kt peak.

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Olaf has continued to rapidly intensify, and is now a strong category 4 hurricane with winds of 130kts. It's satellite presentation is excellent with a small, very well defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops. Olaf could strengthen a little more, and category 5 intensity is a possibility. Over the next day or so, eyewall replacement cycles will likely govern the intensity of Olaf, before it moves over cooler water and into drier air.

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Olaf didn't get any stronger, and has now weakened to 115kts. The eye is less distinct and the central dense overcast isn't so deep. As shear is still relatively low, and waters still warm, Olaf is expected to roughly maintain intensity over the next day or so. Cooler along track sea temps and increasing shear will then produce weakening as Olaf moves north.

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Olaf is still out there, a 105kt cat 3 hurricane currently. Shear is gradually increasing as the hurricane moves northeast. Sea temperatures are gradually declining aswell, so further slow weakening is expected. In 5 days time, Olaf is still expected to be alive, but only as a tropical depression, and may turn back to the west as ridging builds to the north.

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Olaf became the first storm on record to form in the Eastern Pacific, cross into the Central Pacific and then back into the Eastern Pacific. Tenacious Olaf has finally ceased to be a tropical cyclone today as it has lost all it's convection.

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