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Winter 2015/16

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Did you have a nice Halloween? :D

 

yeah it was very good :aggressive::D

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For every correlation between certain factors equating to a certain type of winter theres always that non-correlation. As we saw last year with the much vaunted OPI sinking without trace.

 

Effectively the OPI turned into a tragic Christmas morning where letters to Santa asking for a trip to Lapland where met by the hideous realization that instead it was a fortnight in Skegness under damp drizzly foggy mild sw'erlies!

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Over on Twitter (@wxmidwest) has said about interesting connection between NP SLP for October and how this can impact the winter months NAO. He posted his first update tonight and the NP SLP this month is running under 1030mb which indicates towards -NAO winter. I know Chiono and Lorenzo where interested in this connection. Check out @wxmidwest over on twitter.

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Thats a knock for Skegness there Nick

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What has happened to the OPI this year? Last year, some members were foaming at the mouth hanging onto every value, this year, nothing.

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What has happened to the OPI this year? Last year, some members were foaming at the mouth hanging onto every value, this year, nothing.

they took the link off.

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The OPI showed strong correlation to winter AO, however the historic graph for the OPI also indicated this index could go spectacularly off correlation at solar max.

Last year saw a double spike in solar flux meaning the index was subject to a pretty stunning bust.

Due to feedbacks from snow cover extent and snow advance index being well established in other years without an upsurge in solar input every chance they are still working away trying to address where the index fails at smax.

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The OPI showed strong correlation to winter AO, however the historic graph for the OPI also indicated this index could go spectacularly off correlation at solar max.

Last year saw a double spike in solar flux meaning the index was subject to a pretty stunning bust.

Due to feedbacks from snow cover extent and snow advance index being well established in other years without an upsurge in solar input every chance they are still working away trying to address where the index fails at smax.

 

Thank you Lorenzo. Everyone who says the OPI 'doesn't work' should be redirected to this comment.

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The OPI showed strong correlation to winter AO, however the historic graph for the OPI also indicated this index could go spectacularly off correlation at solar max.

Last year saw a double spike in solar flux meaning the index was subject to a pretty stunning bust.

Due to feedbacks from snow cover extent and snow advance index being well established in other years without an upsurge in solar input every chance they are still working away trying to address where the index fails at smax.

 

And this year it could go wrong because there's a super El Nino, and next year it could go wrong because...

 

So what use is it? Besides, we still don't know what *it* actually is: all we got were some broad statements about the orientation of arctic heights, but nothing of any substance. They've never published and this year they don't appear to have bothered with it. They should at the very least publish the method so that it can be independently verified.

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What has happened to the OPI this year? Last year, some members were foaming at the mouth hanging onto every value, this year, nothing.

Just as people overreacted last year, people are under reacting this year.

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solar cycle shot threw the roof at worst time possible can see winter be average with above average temps possibly similar to last year!.

 

vortex could well get the energy to be pretty strong though the next 4 to 6 weeks along with a strong jet stream at this point I punt for a 2014/15 winter although we do have a el nino so still a possibility of something note worthy and wintry but 70% at this point that it will be similar to last year.

 

cant wait for solar cycle to decline and tank to 0.

although last year midlands north didnt do to bad.

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solar cycle shot threw the roof at worst time possible can see winter be average with above average temps possibly similar to last year!.

 

vortex could well get the energy to be pretty strong though the next 4 to 6 weeks along with a strong jet stream at this point I punt for a 2014/15 winter although we do have a el nino so still a possibility of something note worthy and wintry but 70% at this point that it will be similar to last year.

 

cant wait for solar cycle to decline and tank to 0.

although last year midlands north didnt do to bad.

It's actually no bad thing with a strong Nino.

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solar cycle shot threw the roof at worst time possible can see winter be average with above average temps possibly similar to last year!.

 

vortex could well get the energy to be pretty strong though the next 4 to 6 weeks along with a strong jet stream at this point I punt for a 2014/15 winter although we do have a el nino so still a possibility of something note worthy and wintry but 70% at this point that it will be similar to last year.

 

cant wait for solar cycle to decline and tank to 0.

although last year midlands north didnt do to bad.

 

... which would be no bad thing if we could be on the right side of marginal a bit more often with the pattern a little further west. Last winter really wasn't bad save for lacking of snow lying IMBY. Plenty of sunshine, plenty of frost, a number of days with snow falling (albeit wet) and very limited mild spells.

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solar cycle shot threw the roof at worst time possible can see winter be average with above average temps possibly similar to last year!.

 

vortex could well get the energy to be pretty strong though the next 4 to 6 weeks along with a strong jet stream at this point I punt for a 2014/15 winter although we do have a el nino so still a possibility of something note worthy and wintry but 70% at this point that it will be similar to last year.

 

cant wait for solar cycle to decline and tank to 0.

although last year midlands north didnt do to bad.

Think your profile name says it all.

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solar cycle shot threw the roof at worst time possible can see winter be average with above average temps possibly similar to last year!.

 

vortex could well get the energy to be pretty strong though the next 4 to 6 weeks along with a strong jet stream at this point I punt for a 2014/15 winter although we do have a el nino so still a possibility of something note worthy and wintry but 70% at this point that it will be similar to last year.

 

cant wait for solar cycle to decline and tank to 0.

although last year midlands north didnt do to bad.

 

I'll happily decline and tank for a cold winter  :D

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solar cycle shot threw the roof at worst time possible can see winter be average with above average temps possibly similar to last year!.

 

vortex could well get the energy to be pretty strong though the next 4 to 6 weeks along with a strong jet stream at this point I punt for a 2014/15 winter although we do have a el nino so still a possibility of something note worthy and wintry but 70% at this point that it will be similar to last year.

 

cant wait for solar cycle to decline and tank to 0.

although last year midlands north didnt do to bad.

surely it would be best peaking now instead of mid december as would probably only last a month then deline again and we would have another month or so of winter left
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Now for the serious stuff....

 

The one thing I notice in regularly checking the NOAA upstream analogues, is the absence of years relating to strong/very strong Ninos. With this being in the super category, shouldn't we be seeing more of the composite type in the anomaly charts.

 

Plenty of weak/moderate years in current daily analogue charts .....just a thought.......are we barking up the wrong tree when making winter composites with only the super years.

 

FrP9QBB.gif   Tz16zso.png

 

Sources...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=8

 

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

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I remember that around Thirsk/Northallerton, January 2013's fronts produced a lot of wet snow at temperatures of 0.5-1.0C which resulted in a steady covering of 2-4cm, except for the front on the 25th which saw snow falling at around 0.0C and gave an aggregate of 12cm at 0900 the next morning.  Amusingly, that front had been forecast to bring snow followed by rain, but all of it fell as snow.  However, it was just cold enough to prevent the snow cover from turning slushy and icy at any stage, and I noted an impressive 13 consecutive days of >50% snow cover at 0900.  However, with a little more altitude, the snow depth increased significantly.  I remember that around the 20th there was over 10cm up Sutton Bank.

 

I remember going to an appointment near Middlesbrough on the 22nd, where I saw my first glimpses of the sun for a while, and as I entered the building, a fairly heavy snow shower moved in off the North Sea.  Due to east-coast snow showers the previous day, there was rather more snow lying there.  But when I left the building, to my surprise, I was greeted with grey skies and a rain/sleet mix, though the snow cover was only thawing very slowly.  Further inland around Thirsk/Northallerton, there was no significant thaw that day.

 

The Thirsk/Northallerton failed to get much snow from the frontal event of 22/23 March but on that occasion the issue was that the front stalled just to the SW, rather than marginality.  In general it seems that that area of the Vale of York is good for getting frequent lying snow, but not for achieving any particularly impressive snow depths, since it also tends to be moderately but not completely sheltered from showers off the North Sea.

I live just up the road from Northallerton in Osmotherley and that January gave some of the most impressive drifts I've seen up on the moors. I'd be more than happy with a repeat of that! The attached pic was a few days before the final dump we got, I'd have loved to have had the time to go up to the tops and see how bad it got up there.

post-17858-0-74815400-1445363638_thumb.j

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solar cycle shot threw the roof at worst time possible can see winter be average with above average temps possibly similar to last year!.

 

vortex could well get the energy to be pretty strong though the next 4 to 6 weeks along with a strong jet stream at this point I punt for a 2014/15 winter although we do have a el nino so still a possibility of something note worthy and wintry but 70% at this point that it will be similar to last year.

 

cant wait for solar cycle to decline and tank to 0.

although last year midlands north didnt do to bad.

not this part of midlands! Not a covering 2 winters in a row
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Interestingly this El Nino apparently resembles a few others in terms of October having a +PNA/-EPO pattern.. They produce these charts..

 

post-1806-0-04976300-1445366953_thumb.pn post-1806-0-90767000-1445366961_thumb.pn

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Don't you just hate those posts that declare that winter is already over before it has began? Well this is one of them :ninja::whistling: Winter  is over before it has begun. :rofl: I have scored zero on the OFI, October Fog Index for the third year in a row and that means another snowless whineter for me. :help::cray::vava::80:

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Don't you just hate those posts that declare that winter is already over before it has began? Well this is one of them :ninja::whistling: Winter  is over before it has begun. :rofl: I have scored zero on the OFI, October Fog Index for the third year in a row and that means another snowless whineter for me. :help::cray::vava::80:

 

By that count I should at least get 3 days of snow lol. Add 2 more to whichever time period if you count September. 

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By that count I should at least get 3 days of snow lol. Add 2 more to whichever time period if you count September. 

LOL I just read some weatherlore from this very site, looks like there should be an AFI too. August Fog Index  :doh: Seems to correlate with winter snow fall as well https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57183-october-and-november-weather-lore/

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