Winter 2015/16

[Weather-history]

I really hope the AccuWeather Winter forecast is inaccurate - which it probably will be to some extent. I would much rather see snow than 'seasonal' conditions.

It's garbage, IMO, or at least the written part of it, written by someone who is ignorant of standard winter patterns for Europe. And they shouldn't be! A meteorologist, wherever in the world, should know there semi-permanent weather features such as the Icelandic low. Edited October 17, 2015 by Weather-history

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Still remember to this day watching schafernaker present that forecast on the day. Got me well excited I must say!

A winter like that would be welcomed in my view for compensation over the last 2 dire winters. They have been so boring.

[Stormyking]

I remember that forecast very clearly, I must admit I was like a little kid watching it haha, couldn't control the excitement!

 

I believe it was the Tuesday Night into Wednesday when the big dumping happened, remember it raining heavy Tuesday night, we was going to go inland where the rest of the island had turned to Snow, then within seconds the rain turned into blizzard, it was mad! Wednesday 6th January 2010 had 2/3 snowy spells, most notable one early Afternoon, had a solid hour or 2 of extremely heavy snow, I have a picture here from that exact same event.

 

 

Here's hoping to 2015-2016   

[Stormyking]

I remember that that band of snow was extremely slow-moving, so it actually snowed Monday night into Tuesday here. I remember taking the dog out at about 20:30-21:00 on the Monday night and it started snowing lightly at first, before getting heavier and heavier as the evening went on, and by midnight it was almost like a whiteout outside. It then snowed all through the night, and there was about 18 inches of it by the time I got up on the Tuesday morning. The snow continued for a short time, before it stopped at about 10:00 (so 13-14 hours it went on for here).

 

I'll definately have to make one of my historic videos on the winter of 2009-10 at some point. I might do it at Christmas.

I do remember it being very slow moving, I think the low had actually stalled, remember the winds turning from South Westerly here then turned Southerly, thats when it turned to snow, and then eventually turned East North Easterly, definitely a slow moving event,

[summer blizzard]

Do we have a precipitation forecast from Accuweather?

I'm thinking that it could be done with blocking over and west of the UK. That would still force a trough into Scandinavia and allow an undercutting jet but moderate the cold the UK receives.

[summer blizzard]

Regarding Jan 6th 2010 it is actually the best single event I've ever seen. Snow arrived around 5am and lasted around 10 hours due to the wave which formed off the south coast, Leeds was fortunate to see the pivot right the way through. Accumulation from that one event was 21cm, I suspect the reason for that was that snow (already measured) was on the ground so it was a fresh and heavy event falling onto what was more or less a lair of ice.

[StretfordEnd1996]

I remember that that band of snow was extremely slow-moving, so it actually snowed Monday night into Tuesday here. I remember taking the dog out at about 20:30-21:00 on the Monday night and it started snowing lightly at first, before getting heavier and heavier as the evening went on, and by midnight it was almost like a whiteout outside. It then snowed all through the night, and there was about 18 inches of it by the time I got up on the Tuesday morning. The snow continued for a short time, before it stopped at about 10:00 (so 13-14 hours it went on for here).

 

Another thing that stands out for me in January 2010, is even though it was shorter-lived than December 2010, it actually recorded a lower temperature (the lowest I've ever recorded, in fact) and a deeper snow depth (deepest I've ever recorded too), so I consider it as the baseline for severe winter weather in ther UK.

 

I'll definately have to make one of my historic videos on the winter of 2009-10 at some point. I might do it at Christmas.

You mentioned in a previous post how frightening the difference can be in Winter when you head a little further East towards the Pennines. I wouldn't be surprised if my location recorded more total snow accumulation throughout the whole Winter of 2008-09 then 2009-10. 

2008-09 contained 4 snow events that were virtually non existent away from the hills (e.g past Oldham), for us each of the 4 events delivered 5-10cm that lasted a good couple of days.

 

I don't think it's really actually something to do with the snow falling because I think all locations may share similar amounts, it just seems to stick much more here and stay around for days even weeks longer. 

[hillbilly]

You mentioned in a previous post how frightening the difference can be in Winter when you head a little further East towards the Pennines. I wouldn't be surprised if my location recorded more total snow accumulation throughout the whole Winter of 2008-09 then 2009-10. 

2008-09 contained 4 snow events that were virtually non existent away from the hills (e.g past Oldham), for us each of the 4 events delivered 5-10cm that lasted a good couple of days.

 

I don't think it's really actually something to do with the snow falling because I think all locations may share similar amounts, it just seems to stick much more here and stay around for days even weeks longer. 

I have said it before but location does have a bearing on snow accumulations and it is amazing how it varies around the country  but the greatest affect is ALTITUDE !

[Daniel*]

I have said it before but location does have a bearing on snow accumulations and it is amazing how it varies around the country but the greatest affect is ALTITUDE !

Definitely the further north and east (more mild incursions the further west you are) with altitude the better for snow falling and accumulating. Last winter or was it the winter before there was a local news report on quite a depth of snow accumulating on the top of a city skyscraper helipad. And on ground level not a trace just horrible cold rain. Viewing from observation deck of shard will often show snow descending into rain - depressing.

Edited October 17, 2015 by Daniel*

[winterlover]

I don't mind if I get a zonal winter again. Last winter while not freezing cold was pretty good for snowfall back home (10 days of lying snow). Personally, I am expecting a winter similar to last year but a lot colder and a lot less marginal due to the cold pool in the Atlantic.

 

I don't see there being too much snow here in East Anglia, i'll probably have to wait to at least December to even see any flakes. It seems to be a lot milder here.

Edited October 17, 2015 by winterlover

[robbo88]

Sometimes altitude isn't enough.

Jan-March 2013 all I got at 150m east of Manchester was sleet & wet snow that didn't rly stick.

When all my family in Runcorn closer to the coast and Iower elevation got plastered with snow.

I hated that winter lol.

Same happened Boxing Day last Christmas actually.

But January this year made up for that. I had 2 snow days.

[winterlover]

Definitely the further north and east (more mild incursions the further west you are) with altitude the better for snow falling and accumulating. Last winter or was it the winter before there was a local news report on quite a depth of snow accumulating on the top of a city skyscraper helipad. And on ground level not a trace just horrible cold rain. Viewing from observation deck of shard will often show snow descending into rain - depressing.

Not sure I agree with you there.

 

I've just moved to East Anglia and from what people say it doesn't seem to snow here much at all, infact most people seem to think that they haven't seen any lying snow for two whole years! (crazy!).

 

Back home (i.e further west), we don't do that bad for the British Isles. Cold zonality like last year can mean that we get quite a bit of snow. I don't think that being further west hinders our chances of snow, maybe in frontal situations but let's be honest they're quite rare.

Edited October 17, 2015 by winterlover

[winterlover]

I really hope the AccuWeather Winter forecast is inaccurate - which it probably will be to some extent. I would much rather see snow than 'seasonal' conditions.

 

 

Cold zonality as expected.

[iceman1991]

Gavsweathervids has just done a video on the 6 months cfs update absolute horror show for this winter if your a coldie

[winterlover]

The south of England doesn't get much snow anyway.

[Nick L]

Gavsweathervids has just done a video on the 6 months cfs update absolute horror show for this winter if your a coldie

 

I'm not overly upset by that to be honest!

[snowking]

Not sure I agree with you there.

 

I've just moved to East Anglia and from what people say it doesn't seem to snow here much at all, infact most people seem to think that they haven't seen any lying snow for two whole years! (crazy!).

 

Back home (i.e further west), we don't do that bad for the British Isles. Cold zonality like last year can mean that we get quite a bit of snow. I don't think that being further west hinders our chances of snow, maybe in frontal situations but let's be honest they're quite rare.

I would have to question that...certainly on the N Essex/Herts border we saw a few days with lying snow last year. Though nothing too significant it must be said since 2013.

Having said that, I would have bitten your arm off for having had significant snowfall just 2 years ago back in the snow wilderness of the late 90s/00s, when many of us sat over on the old BBC snowwatch forums wondering if we would ever see snow again...

SK

[winterlover]

I would have to question that...certainly on the N Essex/Herts border we saw a few days with lying snow last year. Though nothing too significant it must be said since 2013.

Having said that, I would have bitten your arm off for having had significant snowfall just 2 years ago back in the snow wilderness of the late 90s/00s, when many of us sat over on the old BBC snowwatch forums wondering if we would ever see snow again...

SK

Well i'm in Norwich, so maybe it was different at Stansted. I must admit though, I did laugh when they said 2 years, that's a really long time! I don't think I've went a year without seeing snow.

 

But we did get 10 days of lying snow this year. The hills a lot more days, on some of the hills the snow barely melted between the cold spells so it lasted longer. It will be interesting to see what happens this year with the colder sea temperatures.  

 

I only got one ice day but I did have a lot of 1 and 2c maxes.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 17, 2015 by winterlover

[feb1991blizzard]

Gavsweathervids has just done a video on the 6 months cfs update absolute horror show for this winter if your a coldie

 

 

I wouldn't even think about paying any attention (apart from posting stonker - just for fun charts) to the DJF CFS forecast until at least a third of the way through November and then only if it is showing intra day and day to day consistency over a reasonable period, From a couple of months out it did well in 09/10 I remember but that was a one off, its been useless ever since, you only have to go on the NOAA website and see the areas that are covered grey all the time because for our latitude its Heidke skill score registers on the chocolate fireguard end of the scale, its only usefull for tropical climate features of areas of the world that weather is easy to predict.

[pip22]

It kind of depends on how you interpret it. If you ask me, a "seasonable" feeling winter in the UK is a cold winter. Maybe something a bit like this:

 

I really missed this kind of weather when its freezing all day back in 2010.    I hope this Winter will deliver it.

[Daniel*]

Not sure I agree with you there.

 

I've just moved to East Anglia and from what people say it doesn't seem to snow here much at all, infact most people seem to think that they haven't seen any lying snow for two whole years! (crazy!).

 

Back home (i.e further west), we don't do that bad for the British Isles. Cold zonality like last year can mean that we get quite a bit of snow. I don't think that being further west hinders our chances of snow, maybe in frontal situations but let's be honest they're quite rare.

Not sure if I agree with you you do have the warm air from the west trying to overthrow the cold air from the east so in those battlefield situations east is always best although precipitation is at a premium. East Anglia is the driest region in UK so precipitation of any form is not so frequent. Yes where I live we had no snow whatsoever in 13/14 winter a smattering on 14/15 winter v. disappointing but it is not unheard of. Scotland has elevation East Anglia is pretty flat furthermore it is usually bone dry with any winds from N/NW. There were several times last winter when, the parameters were in place but there was no ppn for snow to fall - we did get a small pocket of -10C 850s tapping the Thames Estuary in Feb of this year via a easterly influence but pressure was too high it could have been fantastic bit unfortunate there.

[winterlover]

Well, this is why I said 'rare frontal situations'.

 

In most cases we get our snow from North-Westerly airstreams which moderate by the time they reach Southern England, last year was a prime example.

 

According to the Met Office climate maps most areas in Southern England average a mere 5 days of snow in the whole year so I doubt you would see much snow in any case.

Edited October 17, 2015 by winterlover

[phil nw.]

Well, this is why I said 'rare frontal situations'.

 

In most cases we get our snow from North-Westerly airstreams which moderate by the time they reach Southern England, last year was a prime example.

 

According to the Met Office climate maps most areas in Southern England average a mere 5 days of snow in the whole year so I doubt you would see much snow in any case.

These are the best snow setups for the southern half of the UK

 

 

a real battleground pattern.Mild from the south west meets cold from the east and north.With cold air already established over us the fronts approaching dump a nice spell of widespread snow.

A pattern rarely seen these days unfortunately.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18th Jan and 23-24 Mar '13 were great setups here

[Liam J]

Well Christmas day is looking rather unsettled according to the CFS... 

 

 

Looking for some wintry charts... End of January! 

 

 

 

Edited October 17, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*