MP-R Posted November 9, 2015 Location: Cleeve, North Somerset Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers. Location: Cleeve, North Somerset Share Posted November 9, 2015 Ah, come on Nick - it's all related to the upcoming winter. I think mods should back away from the 'no off topic posts ever' stance. That being said, feel free to move to the autumn thread as I find it an interesting topic. I said England - more specifically low-land England, where the vast majority of people live. Most places in low-land England actually average less than 1 day of snow falling in November, and certainly less than 1 day with snow on the ground. Oops, I understood your comment as meaning the whole winter period for some reason. Nevermind. It's been a long day... as you were! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheshire Freeze Posted November 9, 2015 Location: Crewe, Cheshire Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes Location: Crewe, Cheshire Share Posted November 9, 2015 (edited) Average to slightly above average temps (far southeast) I've learnt to take long range model temperature anomalies with a pinch of salt, I remember reading that they're designed moreso to predict sea surface temperature than anything else. I pay more attention to the height anomalies. According to that we're pretty much the coldest area (relative to average) on our latitude. Edited November 9, 2015 by CreweCold 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blessed Weather Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk Share Posted November 10, 2015 Taken from your report.....well Fergie updated today on Gloseas5 etc and that quote doesn't fit....where did that quote come from. Fergie, if you read this...any ideas or poetic lincence? BFTP I wonder if they picked up on an earlier update to Gloseas5 etc? Looking back, Fergie posted (#671) on page 34 of this thread: "Note cautionary comment by seasonal team re increased SSW potential late season in today's update. In other words, the message remains consistent: coherent, cross-model support for notion of milder/wetter/poss stormier start to winter, but potential for colder flip later (this clearly v uncertain of course)." What I don't get is how can you forecast a SSW a couple of months ahead, or am I misinterpreting the word sudden? From reading the intro to the Strat Thread (ENSO section), the chance of a SSW is higher in an El Nino year. Quote from Chiono: "Studies have shown that SSW’s are more likely during strong ENSO events". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLAST FROM THE PAST Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Redhill, Surrey Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm Location: Redhill, Surrey Share Posted November 10, 2015 Average to slightly above average temps (far southeast) They always forecast 90% of the world to be well above average BFTP 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knocker Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Camborne Location: Camborne Share Posted November 10, 2015 They always forecast 90% of the world to be well above average BFTP Can't go far wrong of late then. Personally I blame AGW. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evening thunder Posted November 10, 2015 Location: East Devon Location: East Devon Share Posted November 10, 2015 It looks like it may average around 1C above average worldwide.. which funnily enough is where temps are at this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hocus Pocus Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Newton in Bowland Location: Newton in Bowland Share Posted November 10, 2015 They always forecast 90% of the world to be well above average BFTP They've only got red crayons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Methuselah Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Beccles, Suffolk. Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine... Location: Beccles, Suffolk. Share Posted November 10, 2015 They always forecast 90% of the world to be well above average BFTP Aye, Fred; that's because 90% of the world is 'well above average'? Whether we like it or not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakehainton Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Grimsby, Lincolnshire Weather Preferences: cold snow blizzard Location: Grimsby, Lincolnshire Share Posted November 10, 2015 Feeling pretty negative about this winter... It just doesn't feel right so far and with nothing on the Horizon.... I know there s plenty of time left but there are too many factors against a cold one to ignore... :-( 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick L Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire Share Posted November 10, 2015 Feeling pretty negative about this winter... It just doesn't feel right so far and with nothing on the Horizon.... I know there s plenty of time left but there are too many factors against a cold one to ignore... :-( So far? Winter doesn't start for 3 weeks... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel* Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL Share Posted November 10, 2015 To be honest last winter there was a big buzz on the run up see how that winter turned out it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick L Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire Share Posted November 10, 2015 To be honest last winter there was a big buzz on the run up see how that winter turned out it. I don't think there has ever been a build up to winter on here without high expectations in fairness! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel* Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL Share Posted November 10, 2015 I don't think there has ever been a build up to winter on here without high expectations in fairness! Last year it was unprecedented with the bloody OPI no wonder his done a runner... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Liam J Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Carlisle, Cumbria Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :) Location: Carlisle, Cumbria Popular Post Share Posted November 10, 2015 (edited) Feeling pretty negative about this winter... It just doesn't feel right so far and with nothing on the Horizon.... I know there s plenty of time left but there are too many factors against a cold one to ignore... :-( Well winter hasn't even begun yet... So why the negativeness so prematurely? I can understand people being on the negative side as the only previous year with a comparable El Nino strength is 1997-98, which was horrific if you like cold & snowy weather! I know many will argue that El Nino has very little impact on our small islands, but I personally think this winter will be a good test to see if a super strong El Nino = milder & stormy weather for UK... That's assuming the current El Nino remains in the strong/very strong category as we move into winter, yes there are other drivers to factor in (I'll be honest, some of which I don't really understand) but IMO El Nino is the biggest talking point this season... We'll just have to wait and find out, and I certainly wouldn't rule anything out at this early stage anyway! I'm sure if this forum existed in 1962 there would be people writing off winter as they do every year on here... Weather forecasting has advanced majorly since then but nobody yet can forecast months ahead with a great deal of accuracy Edited November 10, 2015 by *Sub*Zero* 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Leeds Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms Location: Leeds Share Posted November 10, 2015 I don't think there has ever been a build up to winter on here without high expectations in fairness! Last winter was completely normal here so as ever location is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simshady Posted November 10, 2015 Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan. Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth Share Posted November 10, 2015 Some of the best winter spells have popped up out of nowhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Maritime Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl. Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl. Share Posted November 10, 2015 (edited) Some of the best winter spells have popped up out of nowhere. Infact all of them have for me come to think of it. Edited November 10, 2015 by Polar Maritime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick L Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire Share Posted November 10, 2015 And some of my favourite snow events were in the middle of really crap winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stodge Posted November 10, 2015 Location: East Ham, London Location: East Ham, London Share Posted November 10, 2015 Afternoon all Anyone expecting three months of storm force easterlies and -20 Uppers is going to be disappointed, not just this winter but probably every winter since the end of the LIA. We talk about "cold winters" but in most instances that equates to spells of exceptionally severe weather which may or may not be long lasting. How many winters where Dec, Jan and Feb have all come in below average have there been in recent times ? I'm sure there have been some but then again it all depends on what figures you use - if you took the average of 1991-2010 you'd get plenty - if you took 1971-2000, not so many. What we remember are the exceptional spells and we forget the average surrounding surrounding them - 1962-63 was average until Boxing Day and that was the coldest winter since 1739-40 by some measurements. 1946-47 was unexceptional until January 22nd. We all remember December 2010 but who remembers January and February 2011 ? For me, the last memorable cold spell wasn't even in winter but in spring 2013 - near ice days in London in mid March. Of course, a lot on here want snow but you can have cold without snow - a nice midwinter anticyclone and inversion. Perfectly possible to get an ice day in London in December or January under fog so those who argue El Nino might bring more HP may yet have cold with which to contend but the cold of fog and frost rather than snow. In my part of lowland East London I've had no snow since the spring of 2013 but before that we had snow every winter back to 2005 albeit some years the snow fall was transient. As for all the talk about the Polar Vortex - that's probably existed ever since the last Ice Age in one form or another. A strong PV doesn't "ruin" winter - it can promote Scandinavian blocking if correctly positioned and our old friend the SSW is a regular part of New Year forecasting. There'll be time for forecasts nearer the start of winter but my money (and very nice money it is too) will be on an anticyclonic winter and perhaps, just perhaps, getting the HP in the right place for some decent inversion. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
throwoff Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Gillingham, Kent Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow! Location: Gillingham, Kent Share Posted November 10, 2015 Fair few posters above me are right, winter is 3 weeks away! The toy chucking is starting early this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Methuselah Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Beccles, Suffolk. Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine... Location: Beccles, Suffolk. Share Posted November 10, 2015 Fair few posters above me are right, winter is 3 weeks away! The toy chucking is starting early this year... Great news, for Toys-R-Us, then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman1991 Posted November 10, 2015 Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain Share Posted November 10, 2015 Winters over already would love to be wrong think if you want snow and cold move to canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MP-R Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Cleeve, North Somerset Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers. Location: Cleeve, North Somerset Share Posted November 10, 2015 Winters over already would love to be wrong think if you want snow and cold move to canada How many sentences are within this 'phrase'? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry12 Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Batley, West Yorkshire Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow Location: Batley, West Yorkshire Share Posted November 10, 2015 Winters over already would love to be wrong think if you want snow and cold move to canada Thanks, that was very insightful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nights King Posted November 10, 2015 Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves. Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL Share Posted November 10, 2015 So far? Winter doesn't start for 3 weeks... Can't see much of the white stuff falling this November though which sets me back to 2 days under par for snow going into winter Always feel snow potential proper starts from bonfire night onwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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