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Winter 2015/16

reef

By reef
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

October 1997 was quite dry...

Yes and we all know what happened during the 97/98 winter... Very mild overall (some temp records were broken) also a few notable stormy periods.

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Peter H Contributor

Peter H

Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
Posted

This exceptionally mild weather for the start of November is interesting.

I've seen many a winter with cold weather in November/early December only for the rest of the winter to end up mild and wet.

I do seem to remember the start of November 1978 being exceptionally mild, with a cold plunge of arctic air at the end of the month. This led to a cold but dry December, and then that exceptional cold spell over the New Year period and one of the coldest winters I can remember.

~

So you never can tell.

Still, nothing cold at all on the horizon.

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Bullseye Community Regular

Bullseye

Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
Posted (edited)

This exceptionally mild weather for the start of November is interesting.I've seen many a winter with cold weather in November/early December only for the rest of the winter to end up mild and wet.I do seem to remember the start of November 1978 being exceptionally mild, with a cold plunge of arctic air at the end of the month. This led to a cold but dry December, and then that exceptional cold spell over the New Year period and one of the coldest winters I can remember.~So you never can tell.Still, nothing cold at all on the horizon.

Officially warmest Nov day on record at 22.6 (?), which beats 1946 (wonder what happened that winter ha). 1941, 1987 and 1978 also reached high temps of around 20 degress in November. 1978 winter famous of course as was '87 although both for different reasons.

Edited by Bullseye
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MPG Enthusiast

MPG

Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
Posted

Officially warmest Nov day on record at 22.6 (?), which beats 1946 (wonder what happened that winter ha). 1941, 1987 and 1978 also reached high temps of around 20 degress in November. 1978 winter famous of course as was '87 although both for different reasons.

Please remind me.....was it November 2009 or 2010 that was also exceptionally mild, but not just on the 1st!!

 

Why is everyone forgetting?

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted

I do seem to remember the start of November 1978 being exceptionally mild, with a cold plunge of arctic air at the end of the month. This led to a cold but dry December, and then that exceptional cold spell over the New Year period

Peter, December 1978 was anything but dry, it was one of the wettest Decembers on record. The Christmas period was exceptionally wet, that was one of the problems, as the rain area slowly sank southwards, the cold air flooded southwards literally over flooded areas.

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marksiwnc Explorer

marksiwnc

Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
Posted

What impacts would a midoki El nino have on us here in the uk?? Just seen a quote regarding it.

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Chris_B Newbie

Chris_B

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted

What impacts would a midoki El nino have on us here in the uk?? Just seen a quote regarding it.

It will strengthen the jet bringing colder conditions to North America. I believe there is also a link to cooler conditions in the UK too.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

It will strengthen the jet bringing colder conditions to North America. I believe there is also a link to cooler conditions in the UK too.

That's right, it tends to dig the jet stream further south i believe from the UK packing on it's holidays to Spain/north Africa :)

Heres Gavin's Video that 'SS' kindly posted yesterday https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84126-winter-201516/page-39#entry3276920 and around 8 mins into the Video Gavin mentions a midoki El nino :hi: 

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Nouska Accomplished

Nouska

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
Posted

What impacts would a midoki El nino have on us here in the uk?? Just seen a quote regarding it.

 

Courtesy of Mike Ventrice of WSI, a very rough guide to how the different ENSO states can impact the northern hemispheric height anomalies in the winter season.

 

Rdk8528.png

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

That WSI Full basin 500 height anomalies  looks awfully similar to the CFS forecast for DJF beneath....

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Courtesy of Mike Ventrice of WSI, a very rough guide to how the different ENSO states can impact the northern hemispheric height anomalies in the winter season.

 

Rdk8528.png

 

Let's hope for the Modoki then?

 

One thing is for sure, it'll soon be crunch time...if what I think might happen, happens (wild card December) then the analogues can be thrown out of the window

Edited by CreweCold
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marksiwnc Explorer

marksiwnc

Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
Posted

Given the current analysis you couldn't make it up.

Surely with all the rain and low pressures running over Spain and Portugal at the moment this can't be right???

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Hocus Pocus Community Regular

Hocus Pocus

Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
Posted (edited)

Regarding the MetO GLOSEA5 model does anyone know the verification stats for this since its introduction, I know it was on the ball last winter but did it not predict this summer that the chances of it being warmer and drier than average for the UK were in the higher probability region?

Edited by Hocus Pocus
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Nouska Accomplished

Nouska

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
Posted

Regarding the MetO GLOSEA5 model does anyone know the verification stats for this since its introduction, I know it was on the ball last winter but did it not predict this summer that the chances of it being warmer and drier than average for the UK were in the higher probability region?

 

I would say this was spot on for the UK - failed to capture just how hot Europe would be.

 

h5BV4wH.png

 

The runs are all archived in this link; have a look back.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

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Hocus Pocus Community Regular

Hocus Pocus

Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
Posted (edited)

I would say this was spot on for the UK - failed to capture just how hot Europe would be.

h5BV4wH.png

The runs are all archived in this link; have a look back.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Thank you Nouska.

It appears to have a very good record with just the odd one being out of kilter to what actually occurred. Let's hope this coming winter falls into the latter, although the odds suggest we maybe playing a long waiting game for any prolonged cold spell to arrive.

Edited by Hocus Pocus
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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted (edited)

Thank you Nouska.

It appears to have a very good record with just the odd one being out of kilter to what actually occurred. Let's hope this coming winter falls into the latter, although the odds suggest we maybe playing a long waiting game for any prolonged cold spell to arrive.

It looks to me that it has a problem picking up some of the more extreme seasons. For instance May 2012 was suggesting an average summer, precipitation wise when it was a washout, August 2011 was suggesting a below average Autumn temperature wise, when it was exceptionally mild.

October 2010 was suggesting a milder than average November 2010 to January 2011 when infact it was well below average.

Edited by Weather-history
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beng Enthusiast

beng

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
Posted

I would say this was spot on for the UK - failed to capture just how hot Europe would be.

 

 

 

The runs are all archived in this link; have a look back.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

To be pedantic  :diablo:  :) it shows a lot of England as above average temperature wise - but in reality it was colder than average (at least relative to the 1961-1990 period) during that period.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

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Bullseye Community Regular

Bullseye

Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
Posted (edited)

Hello everyone, I am looking for any websites that will give me information on history of our winters, other than Netweather/Bootyweather.org which I have used, thanks.

Edited by Bullseye
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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Bootyweather.

That sounds interesting, must check it out....... ;)

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jethro Accomplished

jethro

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Posted

Hello everyone, I am looking for any websites that will give me information on history of our winters, other than Netweather/Bootyweather.org which I have used, thanks.

 

There's this one for info on snowy winters:

 

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted

Hello everyone, I am looking for any websites that will give me information on history of our winters, other than Netweather/Bootyweather.org which I have used, thanks.

I have written a number of articles on historical winters on UKweatherworld.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/forum/140-weather-in-the-past/

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