Winter 2015/16

[summer blizzard]

Historically a strong nino going into Winter is not great if looking for a below average season.

Just looking at all CET's for years where EN is at 1.5C or above going into November we can see no such season in recent times which has seen a cold Winter.

 

Year      CET

1957/8   4.2

1965/6   4.4

1972/3   4.9

1982/3   4.3

1987/8   5.3

1991/2   4.6

1997/8   6.1

 

 

The 1997/8 Winter was a very strong event-peaking at 2.3C which seems the way this one is heading.The anomaly charts for that Winter are a cold lovers nightmare which coincidently also saw a west based QBO.

compday.SfgeVPTPPO.gif

 

That pattern of mid-latitude  Euro blocking to the east and south along with the Atlantic trough meant we were on the warm side of the wavelengths for much of that Winter hence the high CET.

Of course no 2 seasons are exactly the same and even in zonal or westerly Winters we can't rule out colder snaps from the north or north west but these patterns don't see a lot of prolonged blocking at high latitudes.

The one caveat is later in the season the possibility of a Strat. warming which could split the vortex.

 

I hope the coming Winter bucks the trend of past strong Nino Winters but historical data is the reason i am not confident and why i lean towards an above average Winter overall.

 

sources

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

 

Looking deeper at your sample for the Jan-March period i don't actually think things would be that bad. Of the 21 months, 4 were 1C below average and 5 were 1C above average so more than half the months were relatively close to average.

[fergieweather]

Goes against nearly everything I've seen so far which has pointed towards a slightly cooler than average winter for NW Europe. Think knocker is trolling as per usual.

I've seen no such consensus view. All key seasonal modelling (EC, EUROSIP, GLOSEA5) has offered broad agreement on outline probabilities for at least 1st half of season. The potential for colder flip as suggested in GloSea was something I discussed some days back on seasonal forecast thread, so I won't duplicate here, plus UKMO blog explains this in digestible form.

[phil nw.]

Looking deeper at your sample for the Jan-March period i don't actually think things would be that bad. Of the 21 months, 4 were 1C below average and 5 were 1C above average so more than half the months were relatively close to average.

My Winter CET figures are for er Winter(Dec-Feb.)SB.

[Weather-history]

Historically a strong nino going into Winter is not great if looking for a below average season.

Just looking at all CET's for years where EN is at 1.5C or above going into November we can no such season in recent times which has seen a cold Winter.

Year CET

1957/8 4.2

1965/6 4.4

1972/3 4.9

1982/3 4.3

1987/8 5.3

1991/2 4.6

1997/8 6.1

With that said, 57/58 and 65/66 winter did produce some big snow events especially in '57 producing 20" of snow further south. Adding in 1930/1940/1941 strong el ninos did give UK snowy winters so can go either way when adding in these years.

Wasn't the 2009 El Nino peaking in November at around 1.55?

1957-58, 1965-66 and 1982-83 produced some interesting wintry episodes.

[summer blizzard]

My Winter CET figures are for er Winter(Dec-Feb.)SB.

 

I know. Does'nt matter to the point i made though, most of them are close to average.

[phil nw.]

I know. Does'nt matter to the point i made though, most of them are close to average.

You did quote Jan-Mar though.I don't really see what point this makes anyway the overall season CET's are above average which is the main thrust of my analysis.

As WH shows above, and which i have already mentioned previously,short cold spells can never be ruled out in a zonal Winter but from what i can deduce from this historical data is that the odds are against an overall cold season.

 

I am just simply presenting the figures maybe to reign in expectations, which in our maritime climate is advisable anyway, but perhaps more so this year.

As i also said earlier i hope this Winter goes against history and we get some decent cold spells with HLB but i am not hopeful based on these past strong Nino Winters.

Here's hoping for a mid Winter stratospheric warming to come to the rescue.

Edited October 30, 2015 by phil nw.

[blizzard81]

Ok then, shall we all just hibernate and come back on the 15th Jan as it looks as though the first half of winter is a write off. Meto being quite bullish about this. However, the weather can and will make fools out of many. 09/10 springs to mind

[Hocus Pocus]

HAHAHAH!!! all this talk is hilarious October the 30th and the writing is already on the wall for this winter. At this point I would just like to reiterate what seaside 60 wrote few posts back:

"However it must be noted that 28th oct 2010 there is no forecast of the mega cold spell that was coming"

 especially so that we are in a situation atmospherically and SST wise not seen before, so in new territory i.e not many analogues to compare   

You misunderstand me I'm not making a prediction, all I'm doing is looking at strong Nino events and past winters.  The cold blob in the Atlantic is nothing unusual as that's what happens when the AMO starts to kick into its negative phase, granted past analogues with both a very strong Nino and that are few and far between if any. 

[blizzard81]

Non of the winter is a write-off for cold and snow yet. The forecasts aren't always going to be 100% the truth, anything can still happen.

I totally agree. There was a hint of sarcasm to my post

[Stormyking]

Hi guys,  we have just done a winter forecast, these are our thoughts for upcoming winter, just thought I would share it with you, remember this is just a rough idea, doesn't mean this will definatly happen, this is our very own work, no copyright!

 

Winter forecast 2015/2016 (December, January and February)

This years forecast is somewhat more confusing than previous years due to conflicting signals.
If you only want to read about the forecast then please scroll down to the bottom of the article but if you want to read about how we put the forecast together then read on!

Producing a winter forecast is extremely difficult, mainly because small scale events (such as an unexpected cluster of thunderstorms over the Azores for example) can lead to a complete change of weather for us in the UK, so whilst we like to try and forecast a general trend, a specific forecast is completely impossible, even with today's level of technology.

So how do we put this forecast together?

We use a whole array of different computer models and forecast models and this combined with real-time data of wind strength and directions from various atmospheric altitudes and latitudes.

Quasi-biennial oscillation
The QBO is a fairly useful tool in predicting the season ahead, especially later in the winter. The QBO is the measurement of wind strength and direction in the upper atmosphere close to the equator. The wind in this area goes through phases, sometimes blowing eastwards, sometimes blowing westwards and this can have a butterfly effect which can impact the weather for the UK.
Currently we are in a westward phase of the QBO which evidence shows can have an effect on.........

Stratospheric Warming
Sudden Stratospheric Warming or an SST can develop at any time during the winter months but more especially later in the winter.
It happens when the upper atmosphere suddenly starts to warm at an unprecedented rate, sometimes rising over 100C in just a few days! This disrupts the normal anticlockwise motion of the upper level winds and this can often propagate downwards which in turn can have an effect of disrupting the usual west to east jet stream wind pattern of the troposphere (the area where all the weather takes place). In turn this can cause the jet stream to meander north and south rather than moving west to east which then causes colder air to drift south into mid latitudes (including the UK).
Now this is the difficult part! Stratospheric warming's take place quite often when the QBO is in a westerly phase BUT this happens more often when the sunspot activity is high. Currently the sunspot activity is very low and this may lessen the chances of a SST developing.

Sunspot activity
As mentioned above the activity of the sun can have an influence on atmospheric weather patterns. We have just talked about how the sun and the QBO go hand in hand with producing warming's in the upper atmosphere but there is another side to the story (a conflicting side).
During high sunspot activity it is often seen that the Jet stream increases in strength which in turn brings nasty conditions such as wind and rain to many places in western Europe whilst a long period of low sunspot activity can lessen the effect of the jet stream over a longer period of time. This contradicts everything we have said above but there is a reason behind it. When the QBO is neutral or in an easterly phase and the sunspot activity is very low it may lead to a general period of cold and once established my last the whole winter whereas a westerly QBO phase (as now) with low sunspot activity often sees the coldest conditions later in winter such as February and March as this is when the highest chance for a SSW may occur.

El Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO)
I expect you have all heard in the news that there is currently a very strong El Nino taking place. An El Nino is the warm phase of ENSO whereas a La Nina is the cold phase.
The warm phase is when the central or eastern tropical pacific ocean warms dramatically and this of course can have a large impact on global weather conditions.
A La Nina is when upwelling cold water starts to cool the surface temperature in the central and eastern pacific ocean.
In the UK during a strong El Nino we often see high pressure developing towards central and northern Europe and this often brings a dry winter season in those areas including the UK. As well as a dry winter season it is often slightly milder than average as a whole, especially early on in the season during the mid/late autumn and often again mid winter.
This year however we have a few conflicting signals which means that although El Nino is likely to have some of the usual effects (drier than average for the UK) the conflicting signals may not keep things quite as mild as the winter develops.

Cold pool in the mid Atlantic
This is something else that has often been mentioned in the news in recent weeks.
A colder than average Atlantic usually has the effect of producing somewhat weaker storm systems due to a slightly weaker Atlantic jet stream and this often means that the low pressure storm systems will either stall out to the west of the UK or reach us in a rather weakened state. Also if High pressure manages to set up to our east it will mean that any rainfall will be deflected as the low pressure systems attempt to move northeastwards around the blocking high pressure area. This also means we may occasionally see a stronger than average Azores high pressure system, especially later in the winter although it is likely to be displaced slightly further south than usual.

North Atlantic oscillation 
The "NAO" is the pressure pattern of the north Atlantic.
When it's in a negative phase it means that pressure is higher than usual in high latitudes.
When in a positive phase it means that low pressure is more frequent in mid and high latitudes.
This winter we think that it will be rather neutral overall with a slightly positive anomaly in December and January. We are expecting there to be a somewhat negative anomaly in February and March.
Other data
There are a few other things we take into consideration, one of which is the European pressure patterns during October. Using October as a winter guideline isn't an officially validated method but by using certain markers throughout the 40 days from the end of September thought to the start of November we have found a near 75% correlation between those patterns and the period December, January and February.
The main part of this method is the persistence of a European high pressure cell throughout October.

UK winter forecast 2015/2016

The coming December is a very difficult one to predict due to the mixed signals but current indications point to a fairly average month temperature wise with the potential of one or two cold spells. 
We think that any cold weather is most likely at the start of the month and again later in the month. We aren't expecting any long duration cold spells but we think there may be a few fairly strong Atlantic storms, especially mid month, also any cold that develops later in the month may be quite intense although of rather short duration.
Temperature slightly below average
Rainfall slightly below average

January is looking like a rather mixed month with a rather chilly start but also signs of a dry mild period mid (possibly around mid month). Later in the month things may turn colder once again.
A few Atlantic storms are also likely although we aren't expecting severe conditions like previous years.
Any cold spells are likely to be very short lived but possibly quite intense and we certainly wont rule out the odd snowfall although predicting snow at this range is virtually impossible.
Temperature close to average
Rainfall slightly below average

February looks as though it could be rather chilly with a mix of cold dry spells interspersed with wetter slightly milder conditions.
We are expecting a handful of colder periods more especially towards the end of the month.
Temperature below average
Rainfall close to average

Please remember that forecasting a whole season ahead with accuracy is impossible so instead we try to pick up on trends. An educated guess-cast is probably a more accurate way to describe it although there is a fair amount of science behind our predictions and our forecasts have proven to be rather effective with a very high accuracy rating for the 2013/2014 winter of storms and an extremely high accuracy rating for the 2010/2011 winter.

 

 

Hope you enjoy the read

[blizzard81]

You misunderstand me I'm not making a prediction, all I'm doing is looking at strong Nino events and past winters.  The cold blob in the Atlantic is nothing unusual as that's what happens when the AMO starts to kick into its negative phase, granted past analogues with both a very strong Nino and that are few and far between if any.

Yes, I strongly believe the joker in the pack this winter is the cold pool in the atlantic and how that interacts with the strong el nino. Anyone issuing winter forecasts for 15/16 should not ignore this rare phenomenon

[blizzard81]

Well I apologise for missing your sarcasm. I've had a long day...

I know the feeling

[meathead]

I find it rather amazing how many people are writing off winter and we are not even in November yet. The fact that models are showing no signs of cold is a good thing. Every year they show cold and and it never comes off. Maybe this year our cold will come out of the blue, just like it did in 09/10. Writing off winter this early is ridiculous!

[Helzmc]

Evening folks....just curious..how do we look 2day against say 30/10/09 an 30/10/10? Im just intregued as i think some1 mentioned we got caught out with these years and the cold did we not??

[fUnKy]

Forecasts are educated guesses.. there are so many Individual, strong drivers present for different scenarios that this winter must be especially difficult to forecast this far in advance. That said, we have a temperate climate and generally do not experience massive extremes so as default that would be where my money is... Average

[Costa Del Fal]

Goes against nearly everything I've seen so far which has pointed towards a slightly cooler than average winter for NW Europe. Think knocker is trolling as per usual.

Trolling? Not sure how.

Just posting a potential option on the table. But as its not what coldies want to see no wonder it gets shot down...

[Nick L]

If you think someone is trolling, report it rather than point it out publicly, it just serves to derail the thread

 

And can we please drop this mildie -v- coldie nonsense please. 

Edited October 31, 2015 by Nick L

[solarcycle]

If you think someone is trolling, report it rather than point it out publicly, it just serves to derail the thread

 

And can we please drop this mildie -v- coldie nonsense please. 

 

Would be nice but can't see it happening any time soon. The worst part is that preferences can lead to confirmation bias when it comes to forecasting.

[Polar Maritime]

Would be nice but can't see it happening any time soon. The worst part is that preferences can lead to confirmation bias when it comes to forecasting.

 

Lets at least stop discussing it then, And move on to the thread topic in-hand. That is Winter 2015/16. 

 

Thanks, PM.

Edited October 31, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[daz_4]

I don't have high hopes for this winter. I mean look at Europe right now. If it wasn't for falling leaves I would think it's late spring. We are flooded with warm air and temperature is going up. These situations are also unbelievably stable. Not to mention it's dry as hell and our dams are already half empty (http://fm.denik.cz/galerie/poloprazdna-prehrada-sance.html). Another warm and dry winter after this year's scorching summer would mean some serious water shortages next spring.

[Summer Sun]

7th winter update from Gavin P

 

[MR EXTREMES]

both 09/10 el nino and 97/98 both nov where mild above average.

 

 

but this year with increasing solar activity and strong nino id be more inclined to think wintry weather might well be late this year feb march!

 

possibly staying very mild until march although my first ideas would be a similar outcome to 97/98 the most likely.

 

which id like to add was awful

[jonboy]

both 09/10 el nino and 97/98 both nov where mild above average.

 

Rrea00120091101.gif

Rrea00119971101.gif

 

but this year with increasing solar activity and strong nino id be more inclined to think wintry weather might well be late this year feb march!

 

possibly staying very mild until march although my first ideas would be a similar outcome to 97/98 the most likely.

 

which id like to add was awful

I have to disagree with that statement we are definitely in a decreasing solar activity phase. Activity is similarish to 09 but the difference is that 09 was on the upside of the cycle whereas today we are on the downside. 

[pip22]

7th winter update from Gavin P

 

He says dry Octobers tends to followed by a colder than average Winter. I hope hes right.

[Thundery wintry showers]

October 1997 was quite dry...