Winter 2015/16

[sundog]

what about a winter similar to winter 85-86. A mild Dec,much colder Jan and very cold Feb. That was a winter which started mild but turned colder and colder as the seaon went on.

[pegg24]

Let's see what happens this year I absolutely love the snow. But my hopes are low and if we get some gud snowfall then I will be very happy. Let's be honest nobody can tell what the weather will do beyond a 7 day range.

[Hocus Pocus]

Could be similar perhaps to Winter 2011/12, where it was predominantly mild until late January. It did turn much colder then, but the UK was right at the end of the cold line and it never really made it across to western parts or Ireland. The 2nd half of February 2012 was very mild. However, I think that Winter occured during a decaying La Niña?

That's the analogue years I was leaning towards as I'm not so sure we'll see amy favourable blocking around Greenland and will be relying on height over Scandinavia to back far enough westwards.

[Methuselah]

Having seen so many 'correlations' come and go, over the years, I'm expecting the upcoming winter to be almost, if not entirely, unique...

[Hocus Pocus]

Having seen so many 'correlations' come and go, over the years, I'm expecting the upcoming winter to be almost, if not entirely, unique...

Yes there's been quite a few nuggets over the years some still around whilst others have fallen by the wayside, I guess that's why the MetO jumped ship knowing full well that there are far too many variables at play in the LRF market. Of course that shouldn't stop others from having a go as that's the only way science moves forward. 

[DAVID SNOW]

No. The latest Contingency Planning summary is N-D-J. That GloSea5 output is J-F-M. Note cautionary comment by seasonal team re increased SSW potential late season in today's update. In other words, the message remains consistent: coherent, cross-model support for notion of milder/wetter/poss stormier start to winter, but potential for colder flip later (this clearly v uncertain of course). But the notion of broadly +ve NAO conditions into winter at least initially has been strongly signalled by the key output (GloSea5, EC Seasonal, EuroSip) for a while now.

 

A question if I may, is the late season potential SSW linked to strong EL NINO years or for want of a better word 'average'  EL NINO years ? Or even both?

[Man With Beard]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

All there for you guys.

 

but here's a taste:

 

Looks tasty but I've also seen the Nov/Dec/Jan anomoly - Icelandic low, weak heights over Europe - suggesting a long hard winter for coldies while we wait for the cherry at the end

[MPG]

Looks tasty but I've also seen the Nov/Dec/Jan anomoly - Icelandic low, weak heights over Europe - suggesting a long hard winter for coldies while we wait for the cherry at the end

Think you need to check again. Thats the Jan, Feb. March chart. December the blocking begins to evolve. November zonal.

[Snowmad79]

A question if I may, is the late season potential SSW linked to strong EL NINO years or for want of a better word 'average'  EL NINO years ? Or even both?

 

To be honest and from what I've read there is always a SSW towards the end of winter. SSW's are classified into 4 catagoies, mostly 3 with the last being the "Final SSW" which occurs when the strat transitions from a winter mean westerly flow to an easterly mean flow.

 

Calling for a late SSW is pretty much stating the inevitable for the end of a typical winter cycle.

[cheeky_monkey]

One thing is for sure. As we head into November we need the Euro Mid lat blocking High resplaced with trough or the Jet will not be able to take its nose dive south and if it did we'd be stuck with Blustery SWerlies. Getting a wedge of blocking HP to our NE robust enough to force the jet underneath is very difficult to get in comparsion to a mid atlantic high that surges north towards Greenland and trough digging south through Scandi with easterly and NE'erly flow.

 

On the model thread I mentioned about the PV being stronger now than it was in this time frame during lead up to classic winters a few year back but one positive for me is the El Nino.

We've only had 5 strong+ El Ninos since 1950 and 60% of them lead to snowy winters for the UK. Overall, 65% of all El Nino's winters were terrible for the UK in terms of Snow. The current El Nino is still predicted to breach the +1.5 mark which is when these events are classed as Strong. With the PV strengthening will Nino be strong enough to drive weather conditions in our favour ?

 

I've consolidated some data into a blog RE:  El Nino vs UK winters http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/293/entry-4904-el-nino-vs-uk-winter/ which details the dates and strength category of El Ninos / UK winter classification of Mild & Dry / Cold & Snowy etc and what the corresponding winter was like thanks to a number of reports from NWeather and other sites. (Office Excel version attached).

i would take a slight issue to your classification of winters in this spreadsheet..according to two classification of winter CET values none of the winters with a strong el nino for example came in below average and  94-95 which you have as cold and snowy is classed as very mild and I remember as being particularly wet

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=libgen&id=1499&title=300+years+of+winter+CET+(Part+Two)

[DAVID SNOW]

To be honest and from what I've read there is always a SSW towards the end of winter. SSW's are classified into 4 catagoies, mostly 3 with the last being the "Final SSW" which occurs when the strat transitions from a winter mean westerly flow to an easterly mean flow.

 

Calling for a late SSW is pretty much stating the inevitable for the end of a typical winter cycle.

 

Thanks, but that's not what I asked

[jethro]

Whilst looking for something else I came across this interesting passage from Climate: Past, Present and Future by Hubert Lamb

 

Hay (1967) found that strong westerlies and a deep centre of low monthly mean pressure near Iceland in October usually precede mild, westerly winters in Britain. Enhanced frequency of northerly weather, with the low pressure centred over the region between the Norwegian Sea and the Kara Sea, in October tends to be followed by cold or rather cold in England with continued excess of northerly wind components.

 

More can be found here:

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=kUe0AAAAQBAJ&pg=PA296&lpg=PA296&dq=weather+lore+warm+october&source=bl&ots=1rVzOi_og0&sig=hiRb9HQi60CiA6-2H-APtp8aBVI&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CEsQ6AEwCWoVChMIu6aqloTjyAIVxW0UCh2ALgaw#v=onepage&q&f=false

 

 

Also, a strange but curious fact....in 1677 a law was passed that any Weather Seers shall be burned at the stake. It has been repealed so you're all safe, but not until 1959!!

[egret]

Whilst looking for something else I came across this interesting passage from Climate: Past, Present and Future by Hubert Lamb

 

Hay (1967) found that strong westerlies and a deep centre of low monthly mean pressure near Iceland in October usually precede mild, westerly winters in Britain. Enhanced frequency of northerly weather, with the low pressure centred over the region between the Norwegian Sea and the Kara Sea, in October tends to be followed by cold or rather cold in England with continued excess of northerly wind components.

 

More can be found here:

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=kUe0AAAAQBAJ&pg=PA296&lpg=PA296&dq=weather+lore+warm+october&source=bl&ots=1rVzOi_og0&sig=hiRb9HQi60CiA6-2H-APtp8aBVI&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CEsQ6AEwCWoVChMIu6aqloTjyAIVxW0UCh2ALgaw#v=onepage&q&f=false

 

 

Also, a strange but curious fact....in 1677 a law was passed that any Weather Seers shall be burned at the stake. It has been repealed so you're all safe, but not until 1959!!

Which is why the express keeps getting it wrong. Bring back an important piece of legislation! LoL

 

Regarding this winter I have no extreme expectations but watch 2016 onwards with interest as we head on towards solar minimum from (a point where  a cyclical high has been lower lower than expected) 2018 remains the one to watch for me.

[summer blizzard]

https://twitter.com/CONWEATHER/status/658406606443540480

Posted same in Cooler Atlantic thread, signs of cooling in 1.2 region, chance of central based El Nino by December?

 

Until region 1.2 cools to the point that it's below 1C above the norm i suspect that the atmosphere will respond as if basin wide rather than west based.

[Snowmad79]

Cheeky, I don't use the CET value to determine weather it was cold and snowy I used a combination of reports from three sites including netweathers History of British Winters page here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-history;sess=​

 

 

1994-95 saw many falls of up to 40cm throughout the UK. I remember walking home from school in early march 1995 with a blizzard commencing. 15cm in total, we were off school for a week! As I said above, Leeds saw 40cm of snow in 3 hrs late in January 1995! Late March also saw snow for the northern half of England, 35cm widely here.

 

 

Cheers

[solarcycle]

I must say I wouldn't be all that bothered if we had a repeat of winter 2014/15. Lots of sunshine, some nice frost and none of the relentless rain of the previous year. 

 

What I would like most of all though is a cold Xmas and NY period. Doesn't even have to be snowy, icy sunshine will help it feel seasonal.

[sundog]

I must say I wouldn't be all that bothered if we had a repeat of winter 2014/15. Lots of sunshine, some nice frost and none of the relentless rain of the previous year. 

 

What I would like most of all though is a cold Xmas and NY period. Doesn't even have to be snowy, icy sunshine will help it feel seasonal.

 

 

I would love a cold/very cold xmas to new yr period too even if there was no snow. I love frosty weather and after snow is my next fav weather type. Getting weather like that in the lastt week of dec would be very seasonal even without snow.  xmas 1995 for example was very much like that at my location, no snow but very cold and frosty.

Edited October 28, 2015 by sundog

[Mair Snaw]

I must say I wouldn't be all that bothered if we had a repeat of winter 2014/15. Lots of sunshine, some nice frost and none of the relentless rain of the previous year. 

 

What I would like most of all though is a cold Xmas and NY period. Doesn't even have to be snowy, icy sunshine will help it feel seasonal.

I wouldnt say no to a repeat of last winter either... snowfall on boxing day that lasted 7 days then a cold snowy end to Jan.. a few more days with snow falling in Feb and at the end of March.... maybe a bit more prolonged cold would make it better but last years cold zonal was not to bad for me...

[MPG]

I must say I wouldn't be all that bothered if we had a repeat of winter 2014/15. Lots of sunshine, some nice frost and none of the relentless rain of the previous year. 

 

What I would like most of all though is a cold Xmas and NY period. Doesn't even have to be snowy, icy sunshine will help it feel seasonal.

 

 

I wouldnt say no to a repeat of last winter either... snowfall on boxing day that lasted 7 days then a cold snowy end to Jan.. a few more days with snow falling in Feb and at the end of March.... maybe a bit more prolonged cold would make it better but last years cold zonal was not to bad for me...

No thanks.

[MP-R]

I wouldnt say no to a repeat of last winter either... snowfall on boxing day that lasted 7 days then a cold snowy end to Jan.. a few more days with snow falling in Feb and at the end of March.... maybe a bit more prolonged cold would make it better but last years cold zonal was not to bad for me...

 

The wonders of altitude. The number of times snow fell here last winter and the absence of it settling was really frustrating, yet only 100m further up and it settled. In fact the Mendip had a few such falls. Maybe any Pm westerlies this year will be better for lower ground too.

[snow freak]

No thanks.

 

I wouldnt say no to a repeat of last winter either... snowfall on boxing day that lasted 7 days then a cold snowy end to Jan.. a few more days with snow falling in Feb and at the end of March.... maybe a bit more prolonged cold would make it better but last years cold zonal was not to bad for me...

last winter was dire for us in the east midlands.  one evening of temporary snowfall and a few frosty morning does not, in my books, make a proper winter.  I pray there isn't a repeat this winter...or worse.

[cheeky_monkey]

Cheeky, I don't use the CET value to determine weather it was cold and snowy I used a combination of reports from three sites including netweathers History of British Winters page here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-history;sess=​

 

 

 

Cheers

that's all well and good but for example the values for 1994-95 come in as Dec = 6.4c Jan = 4.8c Feb = 6.5 not sure how you could class this as a cold winter??

[Thundery wintry showers]

1994/95 was a mild, wet and windy winter with rather above-average sunshine in the east.  Snow was mainly confined to the month of January 1995, snow for some on New Year's Day and frequent marginal snow events in the last week of the month which gave 40cm around Leeds on the 25th, but that was quite a localised event.  In most regions March was the snowiest month of the 1994/95 season, but most regions were also unusually sunny that month and the snow tended to melt quickly in the sun.  I have quite positive memories of that season because of how much overall "weather" there was, but except for localised areas that got hit by unusually heavy snowstorms in January and/or March 1995, it wasn't the greatest for cold or snow.  Nothing like as snowless as 1988/89 or 1991/92 though.

 

A repeat of the synoptics of March 1995, but during the winter quarter, would probably bring very widespread snow thanks to that cold anomaly in the Atlantic, and with the weaker sun the snow would tend to stick around longer, especially in the north.  Synoptics like those of December 1994 or February 1995, with greater emphasis on south-westerlies, would still give us a mild winter though.

Edited October 28, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[I remember Atlantic 252]

last winter was dire for us in the east midlands.  one evening of temporary snowfall and a few frosty morning does not, in my books, make a proper winter.  I pray there isn't a repeat this winter...or worse.

 

was bad for low levels, boxing day was good and days after, but north westerlies suck for low levels in south

[sunnijim]

Nothing typical about our current weather set up and the El Nino winter of 97-98

The thought of a High stuck over Europe giving a bland winter set me off on a look back.

The winter was mild,Wet and at times extremely windy.A notable wind storm in Jan 98 that was only surpassed by the 87 'hurricane' and the 'Burns day storm' in Jan 90 over England.

Not much snow for anyone that year, but some hope perhaps this year as early signs seem to be winter not following the 97-98 Atlantic low fest.