Winter 2015/16

[Weather Boy]

I think it's quite easy myself to infer that he cold North Atlantic anomalies will the play the biggest role in the localised cooling in NW Europe.

 

Would you be kind enough to expand on that please, Costa?

 

You mean, I imagine, that as the location most susceptible to the Atlantic (if you include Ireland), if the Atlantic is colder than usual as it currently is, then it should follow that we will be colder than average.  Is that right?  If so, not sure I agree.  If we hypothetically had a winter of constant W or SW flow from the Atlantic, the winter overall would still be milder than average, even if it not quite as mild as it would if the Atlantic were not so cold.  As someone else implied, snow from Canada is surely impossible at our location(?).  In other words a constant W or SW flow in Jan might normally give a CET of say 7.5C (very mild) but with a colder than average Atlantic, it might be 5.5C or 5C: still warmer than average. 

 

So, if I've interpreted your post correctly, I'm still not convinced.  I'd be interested in your comments, though.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Came across this following another link that Bullseye posted in another thread     Thought it might be of interest to many on here. I don't know how reliable the study and information is, but it will be fascinating to see if they are onto something. 

 

 

 

Came across this following another link that Bullseye posted in another thread     Thought it might be of interest to many on here. I don't know how reliable the study and information is, but it will be fascinating to see if they are onto something. 

WMD

Yes I rad that a few weeks back.  It supports the theory of Landscheidt who had for some decades been predicting that we will have a grand minima with first peak/bottom around 2030 [see my sig dated 2013].  There is expected to be another much later this century under his theory.  I think by 2030 we will be right in the mix not starting the conditions of a LIA.  For me the process is now already under way with cycle 24s behaviour.  The big test is whether climate cools over coming years and continues to do so until the grand minima.  We have another theory going on which suggests the effects will be minimalised/offset.  It's a very interesting time indeed.

 

BFTP

[Cloud 10]

Interesting read from Cohen.

 

Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts | AER

 

 

Going for a negative AO this winter which is encouraging.

[solarcycle]

Interesting read from Cohen.

 

Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts | AER

 

 

Going for a negative AO this winter which is encouraging.

 

Very promising for coldies and very well explained. Makes much better reading than broad brush statements like some weather webpages, and/or sheer blagging (Mr Madden I'm looking at you).

[Gavin Hannah]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/614135/weather-warning-first-snow-of-winter-this-weekend-UK-storm-alert

 

And just when you thought it was safe to come in here Mwhahaha!

[jethro]

Having been marvelling at the vast number of berries on the holly trees this year at work, (more than I've ever seen in the 18 years I've lived around here), I passed two gritting lorries with ploughs attached on the way home. I'm taking this as proof positive we're going to be snowed in within the months end, only to be finally rescued from the onslaught of classic battleground events around mid February.

[Costa Del Fal]

Would you be kind enough to expand on that please, Costa?

You mean, I imagine, that as the location most susceptible to the Atlantic (if you include Ireland), if the Atlantic is colder than usual as it currently is, then it should follow that we will be colder than average. Is that right? If so, not sure I agree. If we hypothetically had a winter of constant W or SW flow from the Atlantic, the winter overall would still be milder than average, even if it not quite as mild as it would if the Atlantic were not so cold. As someone else implied, snow from Canada is surely impossible at our location(?). In other words a constant W or SW flow in Jan might normally give a CET of say 7.5C (very mild) but with a colder than average Atlantic, it might be 5.5C or 5C: still warmer than average.

So, if I've interpreted your post correctly, I'm still not convinced. I'd be interested in your comments, though.

I see your point but surely our average winter is made up of predominantly west or south westerly winds? Hence given even a slightly near normal winter, a good bout of west or south westerly winds which we should expect in this country should deliver cooler than normal conditions because the Atlantic is cooler and our predominant wind is from this direction hence makes up a large contribution to our average temperatures.

Certainly however, those winds *could* make it Walter than average still but I would of thought as the majority of our weather comes from the west (I.e ~80% plus), our average temperatures are based a lot on this. Then at the end of the day, average is all the extremes combined. I suppose achieving true average is pretty hard. Things are always changing and different variables at play all the time To differing extents. Makes it all interesting though!

Apologies if my post came across a bit sharp. I had a rubbish day yesterday.

Edited October 23, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Weather Boy]

I see your point but surely our average winter is made up of predominantly west or south westerly winds? Hence given even a slightly near normal winter, a good bout of west or south westerly winds which we should expect in this country should deliver cooler than normal conditions because the Atlantic is cooler and our predominant wind is from this direction hence makes up a large contribution to our average temperatures.

Certainly however, those winds *could* make it Walter than average still but I would of thought as the majority of our weather comes from the west (I.e ~80% plus), our average temperatures are based a lot on this. Then at the end of the day, average is all the extremes combined. I suppose achieving true average is pretty hard. Things are always changing and different variables at play all the time To differing extents. Makes it all interesting though!

Apologies if my post came across a bit sharp. I had a rubbish day yesterday.

Not at all, but it was quite brief! I see your point that our average winter temps must be closer to average westerly temps than average easterly or northerly as they are so much more common. Still not convinced that a winter of dominant westerlies could ever give a colder than average winter, though.

Hope today was better!

[Costa Del Fal]

Not at all, but it was quite brief! I see your point that our average winter temps must be closer to average westerly temps than average easterly or northerly as they are so much more common. Still not convinced that a winter of dominant westerlies could ever give a colder than average winter, though.

Hope today was better!

Thanks. I might be totally wrong but the way I see it is that in a normal year with the usual bout of westerlies, temperatures will average out near normal. A year with the usual westerlies but off a fair bit colder than normal sea must have some effect? Still, I am presuming winds will be coming from the west. I could be wrong although anything from the north/NE/E/SE is pretty much a given colder than normal in winter.

 

The reason I am perhaps expecting plentiful westerlies is the fact the cold anomaly in the map seems very focused to the UK/far NW France etc. If more northerly spells were predicted (i.e with a trough located Scandinavia), I would have though the cold anomalies might have extended further south into Europe.

 

The localised cooler anomaly around us suggests the overall pattern otherwise wouldn't suggest much majorly cold wise. The North sea isn't particularly cold and seems around normal or slightly above average when I last checked hence colder uppers might mix out more readily on there way to Germany etc. Granted the N Sea is much smaller than the Atlantic but every bit helps I suppose. Consequently, the cool anomaly over land doesn't seem that significant.

 

What is noticeable on the WSI maps is that the cold anomaly over us isn't significantly below average (Just -0.1 to -1c really!). Even with a colder Atlantic and frequent westerlies, I would never expect a significantly colder than normal winter because it is still coming off a sea still relatively a good deal warmer than land. So just a slightly cooler of the standard winter we get?

Edited October 23, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[easton888]

Let's not get all worked up again like last year over the -NAO graphs, what a waste of time that was.

[hillbilly]

Maybe someone can enlighten me but what has a cool Atlantic got to do with a cold snowy winter as any cold winter comes from the north or very cold winter will come from the east ?

[Nights King]

Maybe someone can enlighten me but what has a cool Atlantic got to do with a cold snowy winter as any cold winter comes from the north or very cold winter will come from the east ?

 

Returning polar maritime air can be marginal especially for hills so if the water is cooler there would be less modification to air increasing chances of snow in a marginal situation.

[MPG]

Never mind the papers say, this winter is getting massively hyped up on here, let's keep our feet on the ground. Having said that, the UK met long range charts are showing some promise. If the UK met are not on board with something more seasonal, then all other long range forecasts from other sources showing cold need taking with caution. I think the UK met got 09/10 bang on.

Edited October 24, 2015 by MPG

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think a west to south-westerly winter would probably be warmer than average, but less so than in recent years.  But a west to north-westerly type- the sort of pattern that we saw in January 1978, December 1982, January 1984, December 1993, March 1995, December 1999- could well be colder than average, and also snowy in central and northern Britain.  Northerlies with embedded weather systems with Atlantic air could also end up less marginal, especially in the west, than would be the case if the North Atlantic was warmer.

 

One interesting possibility is also that the cold anomaly in the Atlantic would reduce the temperature contrast on the northern flank of the cold anomaly and increase it on the southern flank, thus encouraging cyclogenesis further south than usual and thus often leaving Britain on the polar side of the jet.

[feb1991blizzard]

Everything is disrupting before it gets past the meridian,  P4 looked at one stage as though it had a touch of the Jan 1987's about it.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think a west to south-westerly winter would probably be warmer than average, but less so than in recent years.  But a west to north-westerly type- the sort of pattern that we saw in January 1978, December 1982, January 1984, December 1993, March 1995, December 1999- could well be colder than average, and also snowy in central and northern Britain.  Northerlies with embedded weather systems with Atlantic air could also end up less marginal, especially in the west, than would be the case if the North Atlantic was warmer.

 

One interesting possibility is also that the cold anomaly in the Atlantic would reduce the temperature contrast on the northern flank of the cold anomaly and increase it on the southern flank, thus encouraging cyclogenesis further south than usual and thus often leaving Britain on the polar side of the jet.

 

hoping so, was Atlantic this cold late last Jan/early Feb, because my area did not do very well then, looking back at archive charts around 30th Jan, they look snowy, but were not here

[Summer of 95]

Last winter had plenty of decent looking synoptics that time and again failed to deliver. Every time it tried to snow it lasted a few hours before turning back to rain, without any clear warm sectors being present. Often snow turned to rain from the North, as though we were in Argentina or somewhere. Suffice to say the Peak District which is a law unto itself got snow a lot of the time. In a way it was even more frustrating than 2013-14, which wasn't marginal at all. There was also the lack of proper frost, it has just seemed incapable of dropping at night since 2013, even when it is clear.

Unmodified polar maritime is junk 80% of the time; sleet, cold rain and 3C day and night. It always seems to come with ridiculous lapse rates too, above 300m it snows and snows while even sub-5 uppers can't give temps below 0C lower down. If there is a Greeny high or a flow straight from the Arctic, then we are talking. A lot of "polar maritime" just seems to come off the sea by Iceland, with no entrenched cold air, it might as well be Azores stuff.

[cyclonic happiness]

Last winter had plenty of decent looking synoptics that time and again failed to deliver. Every time it tried to snow it lasted a few hours before turning back to rain, without any clear warm sectors being present. Often snow turned to rain from the North, as though we were in Argentina or somewhere. Suffice to say the Peak District which is a law unto itself got snow a lot of the time. In a way it was even more frustrating than 2013-14, which wasn't marginal at all. There was also the lack of proper frost, it has just seemed incapable of dropping at night since 2013, even when it is clear.

Unmodified polar maritime is junk 80% of the time; sleet, cold rain and 3C day and night. It always seems to come with ridiculous lapse rates too, above 300m it snows and snows while even sub-5 uppers can't give temps below 0C lower down. If there is a Greeny high or a flow straight from the Arctic, then we are talking. A lot of "polar maritime" just seems to come off the sea by Iceland, with no entrenched cold air, it might as well be Azores stuff.

I think that if we have another snowless year here, i'm gonna consider another hobby. even during the horrible period on the late 80s we never went 3 years without snow

[Mokidugway]

I think that if we have another snowless year here, i'm gonna consider another hobby. even during the horrible period on the late 80s we never went 3 years without snow

same here and I'm selling the snow plough .....

[Summer of 95]

I think that if we have another snowless year here, i'm gonna consider another hobby. even during the horrible period on the late 80s we never went 3 years without snow

Never saw more than 2cm here between Jan 1997 and March 2001, those winters were pretty awful.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The period 17 January to 4 February 2015 had a lot of cold cyclonic weather with winds rotating around low pressure systems rather than originating from a long way north.  The unusually low Arctic sea ice extent was also a factor, with our airmasses frequently originating around Svalbard, where Longyearbyen's weather station reported a positive anomaly (relative to 1961-1990) of 8C during January.

 

The cold anomaly in the Atlantic was still developing last winter so it was not as intense then as now.  However, the east of America and Canada was unusually cold last winter, and this is why some of our long-fetch westerlies, notably 14 January, 23 February and 1-3 March, were quite cold.

 

Polar maritime air has always tended to be marginal for snow, though, to the south of the Scottish border.  January 1984's snowfalls for the north Midlands and northern England, though often intense, were only just on the cold side of marginal, and I recall that March 1995's westerlies were often cold enough for snow to fall and accumulate during showers, but it then tended to thaw quickly in the sun with daytime maxima around 4-6C.  However, for Scotland and Northern Ireland January '84 in particular was very cold.

Edited October 24, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[feb1991blizzard]

The CFS 9 month 18z from 23rd October is an absolute stonker all the way up until xmas, shades of 2010.

[iceman1991]

The CFS 9 month 18z from 23rd October is an absolute stonker all the way up until xmas, shades of 2010.

It will show mild tomorrow

[March Blizzard]

It will show mild tomorrow

Would that be today, then? Or are we going back to the future?

[DAVID SNOW]

Would that be today, then? Or are we going back to the future?

 

Don't forget to put your clocks back tonight....