Winter 2015/16

[Costa Del Fal]

Indeed, and largely down to an extraordinarily persistent and high amplitude ridge/trough (Rossby Wave) in the jet stream. 

 

The likes of California were record warm while on the other side it was record cold in places, or close to it. Overall, it worked out as a fairly average winter temperature wise and probably one of the greatest ever examples of a mean hiding the true nature of what it describes!

Quite. The average temperature map on the wiki link above highlights this. A story of two halves if you like. Western U.S.A warmer than normal, Eastern U.S.A colder except Florida. Doesn't do justice of some of the extreme conditions witnessed at times though. Some astonishing stats such as Boston's record snowfall.

[knocker]

Indeed, and largely down to an extraordinarily persistent and high amplitude ridge/trough (Rossby Wave) in the jet stream. 

 

The likes of California were record warm while on the other side it was record cold in places, or close to it. Overall, it worked out as a fairly average winter temperature wise and probably one of the greatest ever examples of a mean hiding the true nature of what it describes!

 

It wasn't fairly average it was 2F above average. Whichever way you want to spin this the US as a whole was relatively warm.

Edited October 13, 2015 by knocker

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'd say somewhere in between the two assessments- warmer than average but not exceptionally so across the USA as a whole, unusually cold in the east, exceptionally warm in the west (records broken more widely in the warm west).  

 

However, in a global context eastern America and the North Atlantic was the only widespread colder-than-average area in the entire Northern Hemisphere.  Away from north-western Europe, where the winter was close to average, the rest of Eurasia was exceptionally warm.

Edited October 13, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I have a more sensible one here :cold: http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

 

 

 

Obviously not then...but very nice

 

 

BFTP

Edited October 13, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Didn't we have warmest July day ever this year...amidst a totally cooler than average summer...and recorded at a singular station at Heathrow Airport.   Record heat was a headline that was pumped out.....hmmmm

 

 

BFTP  

[solarcycle]

Didn't we have warmest July day ever this year...amidst a totally cooler than average summer...and recorded at a singular station at Heathrow Airport.   Record heat was a headline that was pumped out.....hmmmm

 

 

BFTP  

 

And a rather dodgy reading if I recall. There was a suggestion it could have coincided with the back wash from a jet engine. I share your scepticism.

 

But back on track. I would like the autumn to continue cool and settled, gradually cooling until a brief stormy period in the latter days of November ushers in a cold and snowy December. Then sunshine over the frozen landscape for Christmas and New Year. More snow in January, another couple of weeks of cold High Pressure, a snow top up in Feb and a gradual warm up starting in March.

[Azazel]

I know it means absolutely nothing, but I have a gut-feeling we will have a colder, snowier and drier winter than normal. Just getting that vibe from somewhere

[John Badrick]

Didn't we have warmest July day ever this year...amidst a totally cooler than average summer...and recorded at a singular station at Heathrow Airport. Record heat was a headline that was pumped out.....

BFTP

Yes and that day was followed by the coldest July night on record and not much mention of this! Edited October 14, 2015 by John Badrick

[cheeky_monkey]

I'd say somewhere in between the two assessments- warmer than average but not exceptionally so across the USA as a whole, unusually cold in the east, exceptionally warm in the west (records broken more widely in the warm west).  

 

However, in a global context eastern America and the North Atlantic was the only widespread colder-than-average area in the entire Northern Hemisphere.  Away from north-western Europe, where the winter was close to average, the rest of Eurasia was exceptionally warm.

i tried pointing this out last year and when I lived in North America...many areas of the US and Canada have had some very warm winters recently(some record breaking ) including the last 2 but this never gets mentioned and is swept under the carpet or lost in the hype of areas which were cold and very snowy..some posters were gleefully trumpeting America had had one of its coldest winters on record..when in fact in reality it was one county in new Hampshire or something like that...anyway I doubt there will be any record breaking cold in North America this winter. The continent is much more influenced by ElNino than we are...above average and relatively dry for the northern half of the USA and Canada is my call for this winter.

[knocker]

yes and even the region of the NE wasn't actually that cold being only about 1F below average. It's the extraordinary snowfall that is memorable.

Edited October 14, 2015 by knocker

[Singularity]

yes and even the region of the NE wasn't actually that cold being only about 1F below average. It's the extraordinary snowfall that is memorable.

 

I suspect some of us, me included, have had 2013/14 and 14/15 mixed up. The former was near average with some remarkable cold conditions across Canada and the Eastern U.S. (the 'Cold Wave'; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2014_North_American_cold_wave)

 

That was the winter of eastern cold, while the past one was the winter of eastern snow. 

 

The two winters seem to have merged into one fiasco in my mind, despite the differences in storminess across the UK.

[legritter]

morning all ,read several years ago a very interesting article about the winter of 1939/40 and i,v just found some papers published from several sources ,i found it very interesting reading .There as been many articles over the years pertaining to this winter and the fact that it was the first severe winter for a very long time ,also touted as the coldest in the last previouse 100 years .As you are all aware it was the first year of the war and many meteorological scientists after the war put this winter down to the war itself .

if you fancy a read please type in on google ,The extreme winter of 1939/40 and climate research .

I do have my own views on this winter but i think the article is interesting .

Hope someone finds it of interest .

cheers a;ll .

[iceman1991]

What peoples opinions on acuweathers winter forcast for England (seasonal) from looking at last few previous predictions on winters theyve been preety spot on. Really dont want an average winter very boring how have they been accurate wise for the rest of Europe on previous forcast for winter

[Nouska]

I suspect some of us, me included, have had 2013/14 and 14/15 mixed up. The former was near average with some remarkable cold conditions across Canada and the Eastern U.S. (the 'Cold Wave'; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2014_North_American_cold_wave)

 

That was the winter of eastern cold, while the past one was the winter of eastern snow. 

 

The two winters seem to have merged into one fiasco in my mind, despite the differences in storminess across the UK.

 

I don't think anyone is being mistaken about last winter being one of extreme contrasts as far as Conus air temps are concerned. They were both cold on the eastern side - last winter, the extremes of cold were more than cancelled out by exceptional western warmth.

 

13/14     14/15 

[iceman1991]

If i were a coldie, I'd be reasonably satisfied with an average winter. An average winter in the UK is characterised by mixed mild and cold spells - a bit like 2000-01 and last winter, which had some decent cold spells despite the marginality for snow.

Hmm problem for me is im down in the south of england even when we have a cold winter we are lucky to even have marginal snow. I guess its best to live up in the north for decent snow events

[cheese]

If i were a coldie, I'd be reasonably satisfied with an average winter. An average winter in the UK is characterised by mixed mild and cold spells - a bit like 2000-01 and last winter, which had some decent cold spells despite the marginality for snow.

So a 'hottie' should be satisfied with an average UK summer..

[Met4Cast]

Hmm problem for me is im down in the south of england even when we have a cold winter we are lucky to even have marginal snow. I guess its best to live up in the north for decent snow events

 

Yeah, saw a 5 minute flurry last winter. Definitely not what I'd call exciting from a "coldie" perspective

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes, this summer was average, even slightly cooler than average, and I still consider it as fairly respectable. Anyway, back to winter discussion...

 

If i were a coldie, I'd be reasonably satisfied with an average winter. An average winter in the UK is characterised by mixed mild and cold spells - a bit like 2000-01 and last winter, which had some decent cold spells despite the marginality for snow.

 

 

Yes but snow is what we all want, I don't class any winter after 1995-96 up until 08-09 as very good for snow, its all about total inches of snowfall, 10 inches or more in total is a very good winter unless you live on very high ground or in a very favourable location, 6 - 8 inches was always the benchmark - the spread if you like when I grew u[p in the 80s, anything where you just get a couple of inches or a few dustings is garbage.

[Nick L]

Sensible posts only please.

[iceman1991]

Yeah, saw a 5 minute flurry last winter. Definitely not what I'd call exciting from a "coldie" perspective

I didnt even see that dan haha never really experienced I proper cold winter with lots of snow but I really hope we get one soon its about time we did aint it guys

[Evening thunder]

 

Didn't we have warmest July day ever this year...amidst a totally cooler than average summer...and recorded at a singular station at Heathrow Airport.   Record heat was a headline that was pumped out.....hmmmm

 

 

BFTP  

 

So if we broke our Jan cold record in a milder than average winter, would you simply dismiss that record? hmmmm.

 

Indeed it was record heat for that day and location, and the highest UK July temperature recording.. It's hardly just heat that gets sensationalised, in 2010 we were getting headlines of 'COLDER THAN ANTARCTICA' etc.. 

 

And a rather dodgy reading if I recall. There was a suggestion it could have coincided with the back wash from a jet engine. I share your scepticism.

 

 

 

It does seem a bit higher than surrounding sites on that day, and maybe it's possible that the tarmac or something influenced the temps slightly, but the station meets official siting and there was an analysis showing no obvious cause of the temp spike such as the wind shifting. It could have simply occurred due to cloud clearing to strong sunshine. Even if it did make the 0.2C difference, it would have been very close anyway and that station has been at the busy airport for a long time, which didn't break the record in July 2006 or months like Aug 2003. Often, other nearby stations record the highest temperatures such as Northolt, Kew Gardens, Wisley etc, so it doesn't really seem like a dodgy site.

Not that much of the media would care for such considerations.

 

Yes and that day was followed by the coldest July night on record and not much mention of this!

 

This was just for Southern England with no national records broken, though I remember the forecasts at the end of the month when that min occurred definitely highlighting the contrast between the two records. I guess a cold record in July doesn't seem so significant (especially to the media) as those temps occur all other times of year.. a bit like some possible or near record mild temps this Jan. For a closer comparison see my point about 2010 although that was still 5C off the record.. 

I wonder what the media would come up with if we actually broke our cold record? I do suspect it would if anything be more sensational, with claims trying to dismiss 'global' warming. I doubt that it likely being recorded at relatively new Scottish Highland stations would be considered in the resulting headlines.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Yes but snow is what we all want, I don't class any winter after 1995-96 up until 08-09 as very good for snow, its all about total inches of snowfall, 10 inches or more in total is a very good winter unless you live on very high ground or in a very favourable location, 6 - 8 inches was always the benchmark - the spread if you like when I grew u[p in the 80s, anything where you just get a couple of inches or a few dustings is garbage.

 

Couldn't agree more with you feb91blizzard and was going to reply to Thunderbolt_ in a similar vein. We had one dusting last winter, on Boxing day, it froze and hung about for around a week and that was pretty much it. It was better than nothing, but... 

 

I remember fondly the winters in the mid 80's and as a kid creating a skid path on the ice with my mates in the playground which hung around for weeks.    

 

There is a lot of hyperbole about this winter (more so than usual ) which sells papers and gets everyone excited but rarely if ever comes to fruition. I think this winter will have notable cold spells but these maybe of the drier and severe frost variety, which I can live with. Here in the East Mids it has been very dry for months, the rains seemingly dying off before they get to this region. Only time will tell though! As a coldie I would love nothing more than to experience an exceptionally cold and snowy winter 

[cheese]

Do you know what? I'm sorry I opened my mouth. I didn't think there was anything wrong with trying to keep the positivity going by saying that from a cold and snow perspective, an average winter would certianly be better than a mild winter, but it seems I was wrong.

 

I'm being honest here, if you're not going to be satisfied until we have another winter that's as severe as 2009-10 or 1978-79, then that's fine, but I think you're going to be very dissappointed 9 times out of 10. I'd say the same to any summer lover who expects every year to be like 1995 or 1976.

 

UK climate is just a half-way house for everything, and nearly every type of weather we get is moderated to a great degree, so yeah, the climate here is not going to satisfy most of us - because most of us want hotter, colder, more thunderstorms, more rain, less rain - whatever.

 

That being said, it's not too bad. I'd rather be here than Miami.

[feb1991blizzard]

Do you know what? I'm sorry I opened my mouth. I didn't think there was anything wrong with trying to keep the positivity going by saying that from a cold and snow perspective, an average winter would certianly be better than a mild winter, but it seems I was wrong.

 

I'm being honest here, if you're not going to be satisfied until we have another winter that's as severe as 2009-10 or 1978-79, then that's fine, but I think you're going to be very dissappointed 9 times out of 10. I'd say the same to any summer lover who expects every year to be like 1995 or 1976.

 

It also depends on the circumstances in the lead up though, about a month ago I was going 80% a winter well above average so I would have took an average one then, I'm still not convinced we will see a really cold winter but the chances have improved slightly, at least the global pattern is starting to differ a lot now from last winter, but just say around the next turn of decade (right in a solar min, if we were looking at  moderate - fairly strong EL Nino plus a -QBO, it was November and all the Long range models were hinting at a 1963 and the Met Office were forecasting a months of high latitude blocking and there was some stonking waves been shown on the berlin charts then theres no chance I would take an average winter, it would be like that game show - deal or no deal, except with inches of snow inside the boxes, I might even turn down the 20 inch in the hope to get the 40 inch one, its like you'll take 17th in the premiership if your a newly promoted team, but you wouldn't keep taking it if your manager was then spending 100 million every season, you would expect better.

[Methuselah]

I've no idea what the winter will - on a day-to-day basis - do, and I don't believe anyone else has, either; it'll do what it does. And when it's done that, all the LRFers that got things wrong (most if not all of them?) will roll out a multitude of excuses for having done so...Do I know what December, January and February will throw at the UK? Of course I don't! It'd be frightfully boring, if we all knew what our weather would be like, that far ahead? IMO, always expect the unexpected...