Winter 2015/16

[Gael_Force]

Well of course, it just means it's cold where they've come from. Besides, we had record advances last year (or specifically record rate of advance) and a fat lot of good it did us.

 

Exactly !!

[Ravelin]

It's laughable drivel. Nature is reactive, not predictive. Neither that swan nor my pet hamster know what the weather is going to be like in winter.

 

I'd generally agree, but I'd not discount it completely, there's lots we still don't understand. But to back up your point, the article itself explains very well why the swans have migrated so early....

 

Temperatures are currently five to 10 degrees below average in parts of western Russia and eastern Europe and are expected to drop to the minus 30s.

 

So yep, reactive it is, at least in this case. Also, just because the Russian Arctic is cold this early doesn't necessarily mean the UK will have 'the longest winter in 50 years' either. There's a reason the swans came here i.e. it's warmer, so you could just about as equally use their arrival to predict a mild winter.

[Azazel]

I could go for a cold and snowy/bright winter, but i think another mild, wet and windy/grey winter might finish me off

[terrier]

Think regarding the telegraph they have been reading too many doomsday express headlines. Yes the updates from the met office don't look too bad regarding cold at the moment. But as we know all this can change at drop of a hat.

[knocker]

Of course it's unabashed confirmation bias on my part, but I would take the GloSea5 over any number of composites or analogue years.

 

Hints of a more Atlantic zonal setup appearing in the models now for the end of October. For any nervous nellies, I give you this chart as an example of a properly organised PV:

 

 

 

I have a lot of sympathy with that comment as I'm beginning to suffer from information overload. The daily inundation of a plethora of analogue charts accompanied by various discussions on full basin or east based El Nino and intensity of same along with MJO forcing. Accompanied by considerations of positive or negative PNA, NAO, west phase of the QBO, along with thoughts on the relative importance of the AO, EPO and WPO. Not forgetting of course AAM and regional variations of mountain torque. Arctic sea ice and solar forcing or that Mars is in a retrograde orbit and that the jet tends to nudge south in a leap year. All of this makes me feel a mounting sense of inadequacy and an overwhelming desire to consult Jan the Knocker and Joan the Wad for guidance.

Edited October 13, 2015 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

Met office blog Do swans herald snow for the UK?

[Hocus Pocus]

I have a lot of sympathy with that comment as I'm beginning to suffer from information overload. The daily inundation of a plethora of analogue charts accompanied by various discussions on full basin or east based El Nino and intensity of same along with MJO forcing. Accompanied by considerations of positive or negative PNA, NAO, west phase of the QBO, along with thoughts on the relative importance of the AO, EPO and WPO. Not forgetting of course AAM and regional variations of mountain torque. Arctic sea ice and solar forcing or that Mars is in a retrograde orbit and that the jet tends to nudge south in a leap year. All of this makes feel a mounting sense of inadequacy and an overwhelming desire to consult Jan the Knocker and Joan the Wad for guidance.

 Yes, it's all rather confusing for plebs like me who thinks he's cracked one theory only to find a dozen more. 

[lassie23]

My money is on Madden getting it right this year at the 20th attempt     I think Weather Action are expecting a solar filament to collide with some discharge from the moon, which in turn will create a Super Scandi high which will plunge us into a four month deep freeze. So a brutally cold winter is on the way, you have been warned. Hope the October fog weather lore theory is wrong, because so far I haven't had any fog this month, which, if the theory is correct, means no snow so far for me this winter.

Edited October 13, 2015 by lassie23

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My money is on Madden getting it right this year at the 20th attempt     I think Weather Action are expecting a solar filament to collide with some discharge from the moon, which in turn will create a Super Scandi high which will plunge us into a four month deep freeze. So a brutally cold winter is on the way, you have been warned. Hope the October fog weather lore theory is wrong, because so far I haven't had any fog this month, which, if the theory is correct, means no snow so far for me this winter.

Can you show their forecasts?  That would help

 

BFTP

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Im going for a cold, dry and snowless winter with some rain thrown in. But id still give this swan a chance on their seasonal prediction, since them so called weather "experts" cant get their seasonal outlooks right so maybe the swan can do better.   

[johnholmes]

This thread bodes ill for the model thread when we get the first 528DM line within reindeer distance of Scotland!

[iceman1991]

Im going for a cold, dry and snowless winter with some rain thrown in. But id still give this swan a chance on their seasonal prediction, since them so called weather "experts" cant get their seasonal outlooks right so maybe the swan can do better.

I agree but maybe few snow days chucked in there hopefly mr swan gets it right iv just got the feeling it could be a cold winter this year last time I had that was back in 09/10 but it might just be me will have to wait and see

[lassie23]

Can you show their forecasts?  That would help

 

BFTP

I have a more sensible one here :cold: http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Edited October 13, 2015 by lassie23

[legritter]

From a personal point of view yes some good signs ,of a possible real winter being on the cards but as usual Mother nature will Deliver what she is able IF the atmosphere is in the right state .I,m pretty sure that the northern hemisphere will see some cracking synoptics but here in the UK we have to see some real good areas of high pressure setting up shop to our north [in general ]a weak AZores high and low pressure systems to our south in general ,of course at present there are some good looking charts about so perhaps this is a hint of whats over the horizon and i am liking whats currently showing across the arctic .

I suppose if you take things what are happening in Nature to be a sign and there are loads of weather lores out there one could feel comfy that a cold winter is on the cards but in reality we all know that winter is six weeks away thats about 85 runs of ECM and 170 of GFS so many charts to come but its great that we are able to follow our hobby all sharing and learning on this great internet and its great that we could be looking at some sort of interesting winter period ,sharpen up the knives tidy up the prams out with the proZack ,ban all the wind up merchants ,stock up on cans and bread and dont forget the STellas 

[Timmytour]

Personally I think that this year is following 1974 in its pattern and, after what could end up a fairly chilly October, we'll end up with a mild November and December.

But I did notice today that there's an awful lot of red berries about!! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

What I will say is that GLOSEA anomaly is very striking bearing in mind it's an ensemble forecast and the anomaly is so strong. You wouldn't normally expect to see an anomaly so strong in the 4-6 months range at all. Even more impressive given the fact it deviates far, far away from the statistical norm. We saw such an equally strong anomaly for the October update of the '09/'10 season.

 

I'll keep my ears out at work because sometimes we get customers who work for the council etc who get information on upcoming wintry weather far in advance of us. The Jan-Mar period of 2013 was one such case where I got told in December 2012 that something notable was expected.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

it's certainly a different set up this year which is always exciting just simply because it's different .

North America have had 2 very cold winters recently but looking how different the sea temp set ups are this year makes for a very different year .

For me personally I agree and think the Pacific Ocean temps will give the states a mild winter . Remembering of course the ocean temps in the North Pacific off the west coast of North America/Canada has cooled off substantially recently so don't think the omega block will feature like it did the last 2 years running . Along with the super Nino in complete contrast to recent years .

I really feel Europe's gonna experience a cold winter , I think a very strong Russian block frequently migrating west toward Scandinavia after the turn of the year paritcualy , and yes at times (as much as 3 times) I think it will in some way effect our shores .

With northern blocking playing a major part in February migrating west toward Greenland .

Naturally we will always be on the edge of most European freezes so we will , as we normally do , have a zonal winter of sorts , but cold zonal bringing many wintry showers to many , cold zonal period bringing temps of -1c below the normal for an average zonal spell , so maybe 3/4'c in the south 2/3'c in the north , rather than 4-7'c respectively , interspersed by frequent marginal snow events for England , followed by 2-4 days of colder easterly winds from the continent , then rinse repeat for most of jan , but the Russian high mainly becoming a Scandinavian high as we go through feb , exerting more and more influence , so cold spells becoming more entrenched later on .

That's my thoughts , I know many no me to a snow lover and I am . But Iv never even attempted to air my winter thoughts before now , and im saying it as I see it this year .

The super El Niño, and ocean temp profile been our main drivers this year , with the Russian/Scandinavian high running a close second.

Please feel free to correct me/advise me guys .

Either way another fascinating winter coming up

Edited October 13, 2015 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[knocker]

Some care should be taken vis "North America have had 2 very cold winters recently". I don't know about N. America as a whole but taking the contig. US the last four winters in terms of coldest since 1895 rank 118, 102, 33, and 101. People keep assuming, not that I'm suggesting you do, that the US was very cold last year because of events in the NE.

Edited October 13, 2015 by knocker

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Some care should be taken vis "North America have had 2 very cold winters recently". I don't know about N. America as a whole but taking the contig. US the last four winters in terms of coldest since 1895 rank 118, 102, 33, and 101. People keep assuming, not that I'm suggesting you do, that the US was very cold last year because of events in the NE.

Very true I know it was isolated cold , but parts of the northeast and at times more centrally did have exceptionally cold blasts .

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Some care should be taken vis "North America have had 2 very cold winters recently". I don't know about N. America as a whole but taking the contig. US the last four winters in terms of coldest since 1895 rank 118, 102, 33, and 101. People keep assuming, not that I'm suggesting you do, that the US was very cold last year because of events in the NE.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–15_North_American_winter

Have a look through this , highlights the impacts the cold had in northeast USA

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Even before winter officially began however, much of the U.S. was hit with a round of very cold temperatures and in one particular part of the nation, very heavy snowfall. This was due in part, of all things, a tropical weather system.

Typhoon Nuri, which reached the level of a category 5 typhoon in the tropical Pacific, moved into the higher latitudes of the North Pacific in early November, resulting in one of the worst storms on record to move through the Bering Sea. That system had a significant impact on the weather pattern downstream across North America as it sat over the Bering Sea, effectively pumping up a ridge over the West Coast of North America, which in turn produced a very deep trough over the rest of the continent.

November 8-20 showing the drastic change in the upper air pattern that took place in the second week in November 2014.

As a result, surface temperatures were much colder than normal for that time of the year across the U.S. as shown in Figure 4. This was put into perspective in a great blog by Chris Burt, Weather Channel Historian, when he discussed the change in temperature in Cheyenne, Wyoming from early to mid- November.

“It was the coldest November since 2000 for the contiguous U.S. (and 16th coldest on record) thanks to an exceptional arctic outbreak in the middle of the month," says Burt. "In Casper, Wyoming the temperature fell to -27°F (-32.8°C) on November 12th, its coldest on record for November. Amazingly, this was a drop of some -99°F (55°C) between November 1st, when the temperature peaked at 72°F (22.2°C) tying the record for the warmest November temperature ever observed in the city to November 12th when the monthly record low occurred.â€

We would be remiss if we did not mention what some would call the biggest snowfall of the season for a populated area, that is the major lake-effect snow storm that hammered the suburbs just to the south of Buffalo, NY during the week before Thanksgiving. The lake-effect snow was due in part to the unseasonably cold air that set up over the Great Lakes due to the arctic outbreak. Two successive bouts of snow off a relatively warm and ice free Lake Erie produced phenomenal snowfall totals of as much as 70†in some places. The storm shut down a 132 mile stretch of the New York State Thruway and was accompanied by several rounds of lightning and snowfall rates as high as 6†per hour !! .

Edited October 13, 2015 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[knocker]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–15_North_American_winter

Have a look through this , highlights the impacts the cold had in northeast USA

 

I'm not disputing the events in the the NE as I thought I made quite clear but equally the US a whole was very warm. All I'm saying is that it can be misleading if one highlights one area,

Edited October 13, 2015 by knocker

[Gael_Force]

I'm not disputing the events in the the NE as I thought I made quite clear but equally the US a whole was very warm. All I'm saying is that it can be misleading if one highlights one area,

Surely it is better to say it was a winter of extreme contrasts in temperature rather than the equally misleading claim that it was, as a whole, very warm.

[John Badrick]

Surely it is better to say it was a winter of extreme contrasts in temperature rather than the equally misleading claim that it was, as a whole, very warm.

I agree Exactly what I was thinking

[Singularity]

Surely it is better to say it was a winter of extreme contrasts in temperature rather than the equally misleading claim that it was, as a whole, very warm.

 

Indeed, and largely down to an extraordinarily persistent and high amplitude ridge/trough (Rossby Wave) in the jet stream. 

 

The likes of California were record warm while on the other side it was record cold in places, or close to it. Overall, it worked out as a fairly average winter temperature wise and probably one of the greatest ever examples of a mean hiding the true nature of what it describes!