Winter 2015/16

[Cheshire Freeze]

In terms of what we'd want to see approaching the end of October, tonight's GFS FI is pretty close tropospherically and stratospherically. PV disturbed and displaced over toward the Eurasian side of the hemisphere.

[Costa Del Fal]

In terms of what we'd want to see approaching the end of October, tonight's GFS FI is pretty close tropospherically and stratospherically. PV disturbed and displaced over toward the Eurasian side of the hemisphere.

What's to stop things changing before winter? Plenty of water to pass under the bridge before winter proper.

[IanR]

are there any similarities between the current projected synoptics, and with synoptics of the same period before the lead up to that extreme dec2010 period ? 

[Lynxus]

I personally think its going to be quite a cold winter here. Possibly very cold but dryer than normal with easterlies being a large focus.

 

I base this theory on a few things but the main points sticking out at the moment are:

 

- Higher pressures to the north west due to a slacker jet.

- A slacker jet possibly due to cooler atlantic.

- This seems to be causing lows to head further south of the uk than normal ( rather than smashing straight into us like normal. ) One example being the ex-hurricane south west of us now.

 

All this plus im sure other factors seem to me like we will be on the northern side of the cold/warm pool and in my opinion leading to more easterly flow due to slacker westerly flow and a much cooler time for the UK.

 

Potential for snow?

Hmm. I think it will be shockingly cold at times but with the east and north seeing the most of the snow.

 

Only when a good strong low from the west trying to push eastwards will we see a large "dump" of snow and i think the east will win most of the time this year leading some snowy intervals between the dryer colder snaps.

 

Just my thoughts 

Edited October 10, 2015 by Lynxus

[Summer Sun]

Terry Scholey's winter thoughts are colder than average with the mildest month most likely to be January

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

[MR EXTREMES]

Lynxus makes perfect sense to me I'm going for weaker jet,

weaker vortex,

stronger heights dominating the scandi area mostly although very small signs of Greenland blocking low solar activity enso and cooler atlantic.

 

 and not really buying into the mild jan especially if blocking and cold gets established early in winter I'm punting for an 09/10 rerun at times but the dry cold type could also be a possibility.

 

but cold winter.

[Costa Del Fal]

Some sensible posts here but a lot trying to 'cling' on to every hope possible and reassuring themselves it will be 2009/10 again it seems.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

The snowiest winters during the 1960s were Dec/Jan/Feb 62/3, and Jan/Feb and early Mar '65 although temps weren't as low as '63.  After that was of course 81/82, four months of lying snow Nov/Dec '81 then Jan/Feb '82.

[MR EXTREMES]

just an observation of background signals happy to except i could be wrong and would be nice to unstand why my post is not more sensible than anybody else who supports a colder winter or even a 09/10 rerun.

[Jakehainton]

not sure if anyone else follows terry scholey much but for him to say colder than average, thats a pretty bold statement! He is usually very coy about forecasting such and I feel his forecasts are usually pretty accurate!

[Allseasons-Si]

Latest from Gav

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/catchup.html

 

plenty of N'ern blocking until the end of October,hope it continues into Nov and beyond and it not being a waist again,can we have some right timings this winter

Edited October 10, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[Bogman]

Some sensible posts here but a lot trying to 'cling' on to every hope possible and reassuring themselves it will be 2009/10 again it seems.

As many clinging to every hope as those trying to flog their mild message.

Why worry.

It's a discussion thread.

We'll dissect everything next April.

[Summer Sun]

5th winter update from Gavin P

 

[Costa Del Fal]

As many clinging to every hope as those trying to flog their mild message.

Why worry.

It's a discussion thread.

We'll dissect everything next April.

I'm just trying understandably to ensure hopes aren't raised too high here. We were in this situation last year or the year before with good high blocking about but it soon disappeared as winter began. As fun as 2009-10 was, it was an exceptional event. I'm just cautious how it's referred to. It MAY happen again though you would have to say it's unlikely to be similar but the beauty of our world is its so variable you never know what will happen in the future. But I just think some expectations might need to be lowered a touch. I'm all up for some proper snow but I'm not going to raise expectations especially to 2009-10 level as we would most likely be disappointed.

[Bogman]

I'm just trying understandably to ensure hopes aren't raised too high here. We were in this situation last year or the year before with good high blocking about but it soon disappeared as winter began. As fun as 2009-10 was, it was an exceptional event. I'm just cautious how it's referred to. It MAY happen again though you would have to say it's unlikely to be similar but the beauty of our world is its so variable you never know what will happen in the future. But I just think some expectations might need to be lowered a touch. I'm all up for some proper snow but I'm not going to raise expectations especially to 2009-10 level as we would most likely be disappointed.

As I said, we'll know what happened come April.

The weather will whatever the weather wants. Nowt me, you or anyone can do about it.

People want to see or believe they know what's going to happen, then that's their lookout.

I understand your sentiments, but I think you may be swimming upstream.

Edited October 11, 2015 by Bogman

[knocker]

This is above my pay grade so the question is if the PNA correlates to US winters how would it affect ours?

 

Over to you chio

 

Eric Webb â€@webberweather 3h3 hours ago

@BigJoelaminate floori I think you're onto something w/ Oct PNA foretelling winter. + vs - PNA El Nino Octobers (1895-2015)

Edited October 11, 2015 by knocker

[roys]

​one thing for sure is that we will get weather what kind is down to mother nature, its no good trying to second guess the weather it will do what it wants cold rain mild warm snow frost fog wind we get all these at any time of year, just accept what comes. 

[Timmytour]

I'm seeing an October pan out in a way that's similar to 1974.  Could end up being quite a cool month, but the winter of 1974/75 is one I would most definitely not like to see evolve!

[Daniel*]

not sure if anyone else follows terry scholey much but for him to say colder than average, thats a pretty bold statement! He is usually very coy about forecasting such and I feel his forecasts are usually pretty accurate!

Yeah I think his reputable forecaster - he got last winter almost bang on and the winters before that. I always go uneasy when others were going for cold and he had contrasting ideas.

[summer blizzard]

This is above my pay grade so the question is if the PNA correlates to US winters how would it affect ours?

 

Over to you chio

 

Eric Webb â€@webberweather 3h3 hours ago

@BigJoelaminate floori I think you're onto something w/ Oct PNA foretelling winter. + vs - PNA El Nino Octobers (1895-2015)

 

+PNA is the norm for El Nino along with instances where you get a high over Canada and a trough over the US.

 

+PNA when the AO is negative can be great. +PNA when positive is horrid.  

[pip22]

My predictions of this Winter is is a mild,  more drier one than last year. Hopefully I'm wrong about this and instead it be a much snowier one so I could stay at home all day watching the snow falling!!  

Edited October 11, 2015 by pip22

[Singularity]

http://www.weatherscientific.co.uk/2015/10/10/winter-2015-16-analogue-years-assessment/

 

Some compilation-based analysis here, a handy compilation of analogue years too. Unsure about some of the methodology but it seems to make sense generally. The use of 'solar activity falling after a maximum' as a criterion is intriguing, while the points regarding the possible impacts of the low Arctic sea ice minimum are cause for some thought... what do the peeps on here make of all this?

 

For my part, I'm surprised not to see a mention of the possible impacts of having the strongest positive anomalies focused more toward the central pacific, which can still be seen in the global maps such as this one:

 

 

Those near-neutral 'blobs' in the far-eastern Pacific seem pretty noteworthy, as if there's some kind of wave event - in fact I recall I watched a webinar by M. Ventrice a number of weeks back which spoke of a possible oceanic Rossby Wave. Here's a link:

 

https://wsi.wistia.com/medias/j27zqgbtom

 

The webinar goes on to detail the fact that with the peak anomalies further west, the downstream impacts change substantially, with a move toward positive height anomalies to the northwest of the UK. However, this effect appears to be much reduced with strong events - though I'm not sure we have any past examples of a strong central-Pacific type El Nino event to work with?

 

This winter is starting to seem particularly unclear 

Edited October 12, 2015 by Singularity

[summer blizzard]

http://www.weatherscientific.co.uk/2015/10/10/winter-2015-16-analogue-years-assessment/

 

Some interesting analysis here, a handy compilation of analogue years too. Unsure about some of the methodology but it seems to make sense generally. The use of 'solar activity falling after a maximum' as a criterion is intriguing, while the points regarding the possible impacts of the low Arctic sea ice minimum are cause for some thought... what do the peeps on here make of all this?

 

For my part, I'm surprised not to see a mention of the possible impacts of having the strongest positive anomalies focused more toward the central pacific, which can still be seen in the global maps such as this one:

 

 

Those near-neutral 'blobs' in the far-eastern Pacific seem pretty noteworthy, as if there's some kind of wave event - in fact I recall I watched a webinar by M. Ventrice a number of weeks back which spoke of a possible oceanic Rossby Wave. Here's a link:

 

https://wsi.wistia.com/medias/j27zqgbtom

 

The webinar goes on to detail the fact that with the peak anomalies further west, the downstream impacts change substantially, with a move toward positive height anomalies to the northwest of the UK. However, this effect appears to be much reduced with strong events - though I'm not sure we have any past examples of a strong central-Pacific type El Nino event to work with?

 

This winter is starting to seem particularly unclear 

1.2 is still warmer than 3.4 and even if 3.4 becomes warmest its still going to be more basin wide simply because of how warm 1.2 already is.

I'd not pin too much hope on it being west based for that reason.

[Helzmc]

I am waiting to see fog in October, always a good sign for the upcoming winter. Weather folklore states that the amount of foggy days/nights in October equals the amount of snowfalls in the winter.(or something close to that) I had none the past two years and no snow. Apparently it is as accurate as the OPI for predicting cold and snow.

we have had alot of mist and fog these past few weeks in central belt...hopin all the indications are correct and dont fizzle like last couple years

[Singularity]

1.2 is still warmer than 3.4 and even if 3.4 becomes warmest its still going to be more basin wide simply because of how warm 1.2 already is.

I'd not pin too much hope on it being west based for that reason.

 

Thanks for the response. You prompted me to take a look at where 1.2 is exactly... turns out I forgot that it's actually displaced a little south of the equator 

 

That explains 1.2 having greater anomalies - currently +2.8*C compared with just under +2.4*C for 3.4.

 

Having located the latest advisory (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf) I can see that the situation has changed quite a bit since Dr M. Ventrice's webinar [corrected - cheers Nouska], with 1.2 overtaking 3.4 during the past month. I imagine that's due to some large sub-surface anomalies extending up to the surface.

 

This is why I often regret posts I make later than around 11 pm... I tend not to research them properly   

Edited October 12, 2015 by Singularity